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Fri Oct 16, 2020, 10:29 AM

New North Carolina poll (Emerson, A-): Biden tied; Cunningham +1

A new Emerson College/NewsNation poll finds the presidential election in a statistical tie between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden with both candidates at 49%. Two percent (2%) of voters are voting for another candidate, and 1% percent of voters say they are undecided (n=721, MM, likely voters, October 13-14, +/- 3.6%). Last month, the Emerson/Nexstar Poll had Biden leading 50% to 49%.

Within the rural areas of the state, Trump leads 63% to 36%. In the suburbs, the race is tighter, with Biden leading Trump 51% to 46%. Among voters that live in urban areas of North Carolina, Biden leads 64% to 34%.

In the race for US Senate, Democrat Cal Cunningham statistically even with incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, 45% to 44%. Twelve percent (12%) of voters are undecided at this time. Unaffiliated voters are breaking for Tillis, 48% to 43%. Since September, the race has tightened, as Cunningham was up by 6 at that point.

...snip...

Regarding the publication of Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunninghamís text messages that revealed he had an extramarital affair, 46% said it made no difference on their vote, 38% said it made them less likely to vote for him, 12% said it made them more likely to vote for him, and 4% had not heard of this. Among unaffiliated voters, 55% said it made no difference while 38% said it made them less likely to vote for Cunningham. Among Democrats, 52% said it made no difference on their vote, while 24% said the scandal made them less likely to vote for Cunningham and 20% said it made them more likely to support him.


https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-neck-and-neck-as-republicans-close-gap-in-u-s-senate-and-governor-races

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 10:33 AM

1. This wouldn't be so close if Cunningham had kept his pants on.

Just a month ago, he was leading by 6 in this same poll. You canít tell me his horny idiocy hasnít hurt him to some degree.

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Response to BlueStater (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 10:38 AM

2. He's still leading by larger margins in other polls

The OP delights in cherry picking bad polls for Dems to elicit a reaction here. Thatís why they are spam posting them this morning. A half dozen in the last hour.

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Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:46 AM

3. Thx for sharing that..

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Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 01:34 PM

8. Very glad you mentioned it. Have watched it for too long by now to chalk it up to error. n/t

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Response to Judi Lynn (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 03:06 PM

10. Oh... it's definitely and clearly intentional.

What's not clear to me is the motivation. I guess some things will remain a mystery.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #10)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 05:13 PM

12. I've often wondered if it's just old fashioned contempt for the plebs.

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Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 05:39 PM

13. That certainly makes sense.

I find that hypothesis to be logical and believable.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:50 AM

4. Ignore Emerson- their polls have all been outliers the entire cycle

Emerson polls are not reflective of the general trend, and have been outliers all this cycle. Someone posted they have changed their methodologies this year, which is not reflected on their A- rating by 538, which is based on past performance.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 12:23 PM

5. The margin is not the story of this poll

There were smug knuckleheads posting in thread after thread here last week, somehow believing the sexting story didn't matter and chastising anyone who thought it would. That is the type of person who is laughed out of the room in all the settings I am accustomed to. Brutal void of all common sense.

Let's stop pretending the sexting blended into nothingness. Even among Democrats only barely half (52%) said it made no difference. I propose that if we'd asked that question here to the knuckleheads last week, they would have asserted that it would make no difference to 95% of Democrats.

Everything is margin for error. Cunningham threw away margin for error by erring. Now he is exponentially more vulnerable to losing the race via small polling error or even the simple fact that more Democratic mail ballots are being rejected in North Carolina than Republican ballots. That variance was 1.2% to .9%, last I checked.

Again, sorry for paying attention to the numbers as opposed to empty blather.

From the OP:

* Overall 46% said it made no difference, 38% said the sexting made them less likely to vote for Cunningham, 12% more likely. That is the devastating relationship right there, the 38 compared to 12

* Among unaffiliated 55% no difference, 38% less likely to vote for him.

* Among Democrats 52% no difference, 24% less likely, 20% more likely

So basically you're got a potential very small loss among Democrats, then departure among unaffiliated. Unaffiliated voters are breaking for Tillis, 48% to 43%. That should not be happening, not in a landscape like this and an unpopular presidential incumbent combined with unpopular senate incumbent.

Cunningham can still win this race and is mild favorite. But he basically did to himself what James Comey did to Hillary Clinton four years ago.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 12:41 PM

6. I don't think anybody was saying that sexting is just fine.

It's very unfortunate, and kind of reminiscent of John Edwards, another NC politician. Hopefully most people are going to ignore it, because, what's the alternative?

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 04:26 PM

11. Here's the opinion of an actual political scientist on the NC race

From someone who actually knows what theyíre talking about. Pretty much blows all your talking points out of the water at the 20 minute mark.



Now for election night would you like broiled or roasted crow? Iím doing that with a nice mash and some field greens.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 01:20 PM

7. Over the last nine days the AVERAGE of several NC Senate polls is Cunningham +4.3

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 01:40 PM

9. beautiful cherry picking

only to find out cherries are rotten and mean nothing compared to the truth of this election season. What super BS.

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