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Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:52 AM

"Warning signs for Biden", NY Times Etzel. Saying republicans are out registering Democrats.

and that non-college white people will make this a very close election.

This was talked about on Morning Joe

"With 20 days to go, most signals favor Joe Biden, but the chain of events that delivered an Electoral College victory to Donald Trump in 2016 still hovers in the rearview mirror.

..........

"Here are some of the things causing anxiety among Democratic partisans, particularly political professionals.

One way to measure voter enthusiasm is to compare voter registration trends for each party. A Democratic strategist who closely follows the data on a day-to-day basis wrote in a privately circulated newsletter:

Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections."



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html

Are African American women support for Biden/Harris, less than was for Hillary?

The problem with this, and other horse race advocates is that they keep comparing this with 2016, and that not a valid comparison

There is no Comey this time. Those that refused to vote for Hillary and voted third party, are not there as they were in 2016.

Also, the polls for Biden have been consistent and better than they were for Hillary in 2016, and they seem to be discarding that also in their evaluation.

The biggest risk we have I believe, is not this suppossed non-college white people are out registering Democrats, but the active voter suppression the republicans are engaged in.

Latest Polls that this NY Times Piece implies are not accurate:

NH: Biden 51% trump 41% 500 LV +/- 4.4 points Boston Globe/Suffolk University
Georgia: Biden 51% trump 44% 1040 LV +/- 3 points Quinnipiac
North Carolina: Biden 46% trump 42% 627 LV +/- 4.5 points NY Times/SienaCollege
Ohio: Biden 48% trump 47% LV 1160 +/- 2.9 points Quinnipiac

NBC News/WSJ poll: Biden 53% trump 42% RV 1000 +/- 3.1 points
Demographic Breakdown:

Among the following voters:
Black: Biden 91% trump 4%
Latino: Biden 62% trump 26%
Women: Biden 60% trump 34%
Ages 18-24 Biden: 57% trump 34%
White With College: Biden 57% trump 38%
Seniors: Biden 54% trump 44%

White without college: Biden 38% trump 59%
Men: Biden 45% trump 50%
White: Biden 46% trump 50%

To me it looks like Women, African Americans, young people, Latinos, even Seniors are going to send trump and his thugs packing

I do not believe anyone Democrat is taking this election for granted. We are all aware of the problem with the electoral college









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Reply "Warning signs for Biden", NY Times Etzel. Saying republicans are out registering Democrats. (Original post)
still_one Oct 15 OP
VivaResitance Oct 15 #1
still_one Oct 15 #2
Rice4VP Oct 15 #17
RDANGELO Oct 15 #3
still_one Oct 15 #5
beachbumbob Oct 15 #4
still_one Oct 15 #6
beachbumbob Oct 15 #7
still_one Oct 15 #8
beachbumbob Oct 15 #9
doc03 Oct 15 #10
BSdetect Oct 15 #11
GoCubsGo Oct 15 #15
tman Oct 15 #12
PCIntern Oct 15 #13
R B Garr Oct 15 #16
qazplm135 Oct 15 #14

Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:55 AM

1. Ugh...

I hate fear porn...

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Response to VivaResitance (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:57 AM

2. I am just presenting what this NY Times OP ED wrote

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Response to VivaResitance (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 08:04 AM

17. Tell me about it...

is the sky falling too?

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:59 AM

3. What stands out to me - Biden 46% of the white vote; Hillary go 38%

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:02 AM

5. There are a lot of demographic breakdowns that Biden/Harris is doing so much better than Hillary

did

For a lot of reasons, I do not think trying to compare 2016 with 2020 is valid

I also do not think any of us are taking this for granted, and that is why the early voting is in record numbers



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Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:01 AM

4. as expected, the M$M role is to make this election appear to be closem, same tactic in 2018

we really need to ignore the non-sense and vote and GOTV. The landslide is growing

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:06 AM

6. I think so far that is being demonstrated by the early voting. No one is taking this for granted

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Response to still_one (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:08 AM

7. anger is fueling near 60% of america to take back their country

M$M is doing what is expected to do, try to manipulate the outcome. They failed in 2018

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:13 AM

8. At least 60%. There is a reason the republicans are going out of there way to suppress the vote

they realize they cannot win the way things stand now

The best way to combat that is turnout, and I think that is occurring

You refer to it as anger, and I think it is even stronger than that, I would venture extreme dislike or hate of the person occupying the WH, and I think that is being underestimated by some in the press



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Response to still_one (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:23 AM

9. the thing is, the more you try to put people down, the more they resist. Voter supression tactics

are all predictable and will have limited effects on an election that will be an overwhelming landslide. Biden will win by 20 million votes will not be a surprise, The greatest gift is trump can't shutup. He has NO message that will bring voters BACK to him and the gOP in general. I suspect lots of fire works to happen as the obvious truth of the upcoming humiliation of trump and the gOP become more self-evident

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:26 AM

10. I have been worried about the polls myself. Yes polls show Biden ahead but are the numbers

of new voters Trump or Biden people? Living here in Trump country it is hard to judge when every damn house
has a Trump flag and believe me they are fired up much more than in 2016. I passed a house yesterday in PA that must
have had 20 Trump signs, flags and even a life size cut out of Trump. There is a house a mile from me that has a
giant 25 foot lighted T that actually looks more like a cross. You have to be obsessed to put all that work into a damn political
yard ornament. So don't dismiss the NYT story. Look at the crowds Trump draws at his Super Spreader events. The Trump people I know are confident he is going to win. One joked the other day said he took a drive in western PA and saw a thousand Trump signs, one Biden sign and a hundred pumpkins for sale signs. I don't argue with them because everyone was wrong in 2016.

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:30 AM

11. How can the repgnants out register in FLA? By such a huge number. Its ratfucking

I expect some major attempts to change results on Nov 3

That is their main hope of winning

They will try anything

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Response to BSdetect (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 07:09 AM

15. How many Dems are registering as Republicans out of fear

of having their absentee ballots disappeared before they're even counted? It's Florida, after all. They are as corrupt as hell, and nothing should be put past them. People are probably trying to stay under their radar.

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:33 AM

12. Biden's team ceded the ground game war.

And now they're paying the price.

Will it matter? No one really knows.

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Response to tman (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:35 AM

13. Understood

But you canít pile people in cars and drive them to the polls, and you canít just show up at peoples houses knocking on their doors, and you canít have gatherings without risk. Itís all changed.

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Response to tman (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 07:56 AM

16. I remember Morning Joe talking about this a few weeks back.

They said Trumpís ground-pounders knocked on doors and then stood a few feet back to talk to people. They said Bidenís teams could have been doing the same thing but werenít door-to-door as much.

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:40 AM

14. His first reference is Wasserman...

who basically believes it's going to be a pretty strong Biden victory.

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