Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/14/20
Last edited Thu Oct 15, 2020, 02:56 AM - Edit history (1)
Updated, 2:45 PM, 10/14/20
Lots of data so far on returned ballots, but I am trying to get to the bottom of a discrepancy that appears to have screwed up this chart. The Washoe numbers are incorrect there, as is the description of what they represent on the Washoe site. (I have been spending too much time today pushing the SOS and Washoe folks to fix their data. I need a life.)
Those numbers on the Washoe site are cumulative (not daily as the site says) – I downloaded the data file to be sure – so the Dems have more than a 2 to 1 lead, but about 20,000 people have returned ballots, not the 30,000-plus on the SOS site.
That’s still an almost-7,000 raw vote Dem lead in a county with a slight GOP plurality (700 votes or so). And the Dems have about an 8,000-vote lead in Clark.
Despite the SOS discrepancy with Washoe (I will update you when I find out what happened), the Dems still have a 15,000 vote lead statewide or thereabouts.
Remember, though, that a certain number of these returned ballots will be rejected and sent to voters for signature curing or simply invalidated – likely to be a small minority, but I hope to have those numbers soon.
The turnout – 2 percent in Clark and 7 percent in Washoe – is still not enough to say it’s a trend. But I’ll keep an eye on it.
What we do know: Democrats are returning mail ballots and Republicans are not keeping pace. It’s 60 percent to 18 percent in Clark, and 56-23 in Washoe. Caveat again: Small samples.
In both CD3 and CD4, the Democrats have a 3,000-voter lead and only 8,000 and 6,500 ballots have been returned, respectively. Again, these are minuscule samples – less than 2 percent – of voters.
Which brings me to…
What we don’t know: Will Republicans too afraid to send in mail ballots thanks to presidential admonitions instead flock to early voting? That could change everything. We will know more starting Saturday. Check this space.
If Republicans are not turning out in larger-than-usual numbers during the two weeks of early voting, they are in big trouble. But if they do, the president has a real chance here.
I’ll have data comparisons coming to show you what to expect in the next few days.
----Reminder from 2016: The Democrats had a 45,000-voter lead statewide after early/mail voting – 70,000 or so in Clark. Nearly 70 percent of the vote was cast before Election Day. Let’s see what happens in this very different year with a much different composition of ballots.
----Another 2016 comparison: I looked at the Nevada exit polls for 2016 and Donald Trump won indies by 50-37. Hillary took 90 percent of the Dem base and Trump got 88 percent of the GOP base. These were self-ID exit polls — that is, the numbers reflect what people said they are and sometimes they…lie.
But let’s suppose those numbers are correct. What would happen if those were replicated this cycle, when Dems have lost a bit off their percentage lead statewide?
The model below, like all of my models, takes into account the 75,000 inactive voters on the rolls in Clark and subtracts them, which helps the GOP by a net of 13,500 voters. They also do not yet account for the recent Dem surge in Clark, but they will soon. (Reminder: First column shows if both parties have 85 percent turnout; second shows if Republicans have 90 percent and Democrats have 85 percent.)
Updated, 4:45 PM, 10/14/20
The SOS has updated its page with those Washoe numbers I told you about, so here's where we stand statewide:
Dems: 54 percent
Repubs: 24 percent
Others: 22 percent
Three percent of registered voters have returned ballots, or about 52,000. The Dems have a 15,000-ballot statewide lead (before any ballots are rejected).
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
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