538 state of the race, forecast Biden 87 Trump 13 Poll average Biden 52.4 Trump 41.9 Biden +10.5

[Johnny2X2X]

Biden's 10 point lead seems to be holding. The USC/Dornslife Poll has him up 13 and 14 points now, this is the long form poll where the same voters are polled daily over a long period of time, very large sample of 6,000 voters. Morning Consult A/B rated poll has Biden 51 Trump 43.

Morning Consult had a mess of state polls: WI B +7. PA B +8, NC B +4, MN B +6, MI B +7, FL B+5, AZ B+3, TX T+2 GA T+2, OH T+3.

21 Days to go, only 20 more days to campaign. Every day that goes by with the race staying about the same is a win for Biden, everyday a million people are voting. 10 million people have voted already.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Also some Senate races from Morning Consult

D Peters +9 in MI, pearl clutching can stop now.
D Kelly +8 in AZ
D Cunningham +6 in NC
D Hickenlooper +10 in CO

[bearsfootball516]

2. 538's model also has in a built in uncertainty factor too.

So as we get closer and closer and the polls go unchanged, the uncertainty about the outcome gets smaller and smaller, and Biden's percentage gets higher and higher.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Yes

All of the other factors are the uncertainty, Nate's model goes to 100% weighted on the polls on election day. He's improved his model this year in several ways, but I think the main difference will be the quality of the inputs. The polls made significant adjustments to their turnout models in the states.

[mucifer]

7. Nate has also clearly stated gop cheating is not factored in so there could be surprises

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Good article on how the polls will be better

In fact, the worry seems to be that they're overcompensating a little and Biden will do better than they show.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/

[Farmgirl1961]

5. I want to see a 538 with Biden's forecast at mid 90's% n/t

[Johnny2X2X]

6. I think we will

Nate said if the election were tomorrow that Biden might be at 95%.

And as far as Hillary, Nate only has the Poll Plus this year for his forecast, Hillary never got over 85.3% in it in 2016. So Biden is above Hillary's best point. And on top of that, the model will be more accurate this time around.