RealClearPolitics "No Tossups" Electoral Map: Biden 358, Trump 180

[brooklynite]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Biden takes OH, FL, AZ, IA, NC
Trump keeps TX, GA

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. If that be the case, this is a blowout.

[Sogo]

2. Let it Be!!

[MFM008]

3. I think

It will be very close in GA and TX.
There's still three weeks left in this campaign wonder if George W Bush comes out and makes an endorsement? I still say anything can happen it's bad but this time it's going to happen to maggot.

[obamanut2012]

6. I have been surprised neither Laura nor the twins have endorsed Biden

Especially since "the girls" are Dems, and I've always expected Laura is, too.

[Brother Buzz]

4. Georgia may still be in play

Unless the fix is in, my Magic 8-Ball says GOTV will tip the state to Biden. Grassroots, Baby!

[obamanut2012]

5. If Trump takes FL or OH, it should be on Election Night

And, if either ro both are called for him? It is indeed mic drop for Joe and Kamala.

[whopis01]

9. I am feeling good about Florida this time. n/t

[kurtcagle]

7. Biden - 86% Trump 13% likelihood on 538

Trump has lost 1% a day since Oct 1.

EC: 346 Biden / 192 Trump

Nate Silver's model is more conservative than RCP, but it's still horrendous for Trump.

[whopis01]

8. On Oct 17th, 2016 Nate Silver's model had Trump at 12% and Clinton at 88%

The trend on it is great, but I won't feel comfortable with even a 10% chance of a Trump win.

[kurtcagle]

12. And then the Comey announcement came out

What's different in 2020

1. 2016 - high volatility in the race, 2020 - very low volatility.
2. 2016 - Trump was mostly unknown politically, 2020 Trump is very well known politically, and far more hated
3. 2016 - Unified GOP, 2020 - GOP highly fragmented, with several now democrats
4. 2016 - Highly divided Democrats - Sanders , 2020 - Party more unified than I've ever seen it
5. 2016 - Most of the actual election took place in the last two weeks. 2020, farm more VBM, AB, early voting.
6. 2016 - Hillary had the flu, 2020 - Trump HAS Covid.

This is just a partial list. Yes, GOTV and all that, but I like our chances far more in 2020 than I did in 2016.

[whopis01]

15. I agree completely - I like our chances a lot better now.

I don't think this is a repeat of 2020.

But there are two reasons to not get comfortable and not let up (like you said - GOTV):
1) All the down ticket races that are going to benefit from a Biden blowout.
2) Because of 2016 I am still scared to death of something going wrong.

I really don't believe #2 will happen - but the consequences are so bad it remains scary.

It's the risk analysis approach:
(Percent chance of something happening) X (Cost if it does happen)
Even if the percent is very low, if the cost is high enough, it is still something to worry about.

So - yes, I agree with you completely. What you said is logical and correct. I am just having a hard time with my own fear and nervousness about the whole thing.

[vercetti2021]

10. Biden takes Texas

I think if the average for Joe is 12.

[Marius25]

11. Looking at the video of the lines in GA today, they

were insanely long. Now it's Georgia, so Kemp will probably destroy 500,000 Democratic ballots, but turnout seems like GA is in play if Kemp doesn't cheat.

[llmart]

13. K&R for this thread because...

I needed to read something like this today. I was starting to get depressed with the thread about how John James may win the Senate seat in MI. I was fairly certain that James didn't have a chance.

[Rice4VP]

14. If those people who left the lines in Georgia go

back on another day to vote, Biden can win.

Why bother to go if you’re not going to stay? It’s a holiday