Winter will make the pandemic worse. Here's what you need to know.

[Quixote1818]

by David H. Freedmanarchive page
October 8, 2020
Conceptual illustration
FRANZISKA BARCZYK
hide

As we head into the Northern Hemisphere fall with covid-19 still raging in the US and a number of other parts of the world, two data points provide cause for extra concern.

One is that the seasonal flu—a respiratory viral infection like covid-19—is much more active in the winter. Last year in the US, there were 40 times as many flu cases in the fall and winter months as in the previous spring and summer. Historically, those cooler months see tens of times as many seasonal flu infections in temperate regions. (In tropical regions, the flu tends to peak during the rainy season, though not as strongly.)

The other is that the death toll from the 1918 influenza outbreak—the only pandemic to have killed more Americans than this one so far, and one of the deadliest in global history—was five times as high in the US during the late fall and winter as during the summer.

If the covid pandemic follows those patterns and blows up as we head into winter, the result could easily top 300,000 additional US deaths on top of the more than 200,000 so far, conservatively assuming (based on the 1918 outbreak) four times the rate of covid-19 deaths that we saw this summer.

How likely is that? “We just don’t have the evidence yet with this virus,” says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm notes that some of the key variables defy scientific analysis and prediction. It’s difficult to calculate whether government policy will shift, whether the public will comply with guidelines, when a vaccine may become available, or how effective and well accepted it will be if it does.

Nonetheless, scientists are pulling together a picture of how the pandemic is likely to play out this winter. They are drawing on lab studies and a rapidly growing body of epidemiological data. In particular, they now better understand how lower temperatures and humidity affect the virus, and how different indoor conditions affect its transmission.

More:



https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/08/1009650/winter-will-make-the-pandemic-worse/

[MustLoveBeagles]

1. K&R

[Hugin]

2. A hard no on this piece...

"whether the public will comply with guidelines".

Not until at least January.

[MiniMe]

3. I'm hoping that all the extra hand washing from Covid and the

Social distancing is going to make the flu season less bad. I think the flu season wasn't as bad in New Zealand and Australia this year.

[canetoad]

4. I came to post this data

I'm in Oz, been in lockdown since March and strictly observing masking, distancing etc. I'm not saying there is any upside to Covid, but if people *continue to mask, sanitise and distance, the added complication of influenza could be avoided.

Flu deaths drop in Australia as coronavirus restrictions save hundreds of lives

Hundreds of Australian flu deaths have been avoided because of the lockdown measures used to prevent the spread of COVID-19, experts say.

The latest national statistics, obtained by the ABC, reveal from January to June 2020, there were just 36 deaths from the flu.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190

The southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020

EVERY WINTER, from May to October, tens of thousands of Australians and New Zealanders are asked how they feel. More precisely, they are asked by their governments in weekly surveys if they have a cough or a fever. Although 2020 has been a difficult year in many ways for Aussies and Kiwis, it has not necessarily been bad for their physical health. This winter only around 0.4% of people in the two countries said they were suffering from flu-like symptoms, down by four-fifths compared with last year. Other countries in the southern hemisphere have reported similar slowdowns in the spread of influenza.

The cause for this steep decline in infections is clear. Governments all around the world have enacted costly lockdowns to fight the novel coronavirus. In doing so, not only have countries in the southern hemisphere slowed the spread of covid-19, but they also appear inadvertently to have stopped the proliferation of another deadly disease: the flu.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

Southern hemisphere has record low flu cases amid Covid lockdowns

Health systems across the southern hemisphere were bracing a few months ago for their annual surge in influenza cases, which alongside Covid-19 could have overwhelmed hospitals. They never came.

Many countries in the southern half of the globe have instead experienced either record low levels of flu or none at all, public health specialists in Australia, New Zealand and South America have said, sparing potentially tens of thousands of lives and offering a glimmer of hope as winter approaches in the northern hemisphere.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/17/falling-flu-rates-in-southern-hemisphere-offers-hope-as-winter-approaches-coronavirus

[MiniMe]

5. Of course, that applies to people who social distance, wash their hands, and wear

facemasks. People just aren't that smart in the US it seems.

[brewens]

6. I have a small chest freezer being delivered any day. I'll be hitting Costco and the grocery store

to slam it. There may be real problems in the stores again.

[BigmanPigman]

7. I live in a 550 sq ft apt and I still have TP in the trunk

of my car since I have no storage except for a bedroom closet. No fun during hoarding times!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

8. Americans by nature want instant everything.

We aren't really cut out for the long haul. Look at how we excell at sprints, but are
unsuccessful at marathons. And our renowned short attention span puts the proverbial nail in our coffins. So to speak.

[scipan]

9. Something Germans do is periodically open windows

maybe 3x/ day if it's cold outside. I'm going to try that this winter. And sleep with a window at least cracked. I live in an apartment complex.

[Persondem]

10. In the Southern Hemisphere, flu season barely happened during their winter

... as people wore masks, washed hands and socially distanced per CV-19 protocols.

It could go the same way in the US, ... except that, well, you know ...