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Fri Oct 9, 2020, 10:58 AM

effect of early votes on election day.

So I did the math. Here is the formula.

BV = BV1xEV + (1-EV)xBV2
where BV is Biden's fraction of votes ( we want 0.5 or more)
BV1 is Biden's fraction for early votes
BV2 is Biden's fraction for election day votes
EV is fraction of early votes.

So for example, 20 percent of early votes ( EV=0.2)
if Biden wins early vote by 2/3( as it was reported) , BV1=0.66.

it follows than to reach BV=0.5 he would only need

BV2=(0.5-.20.66)/(1-0.2) = 0.458 on election day.
In other words Trump would need to win 54-46 on election day.

Of course its just capturing the effect of early votes , not the electoral college.


You can however apply this reasoning to many states . Some have a huge percentage of vote by mail so its an interesting thing.

on EDIT:
Right now, 6 millions early votes have been cast which already is good for one full percentage point on election day.

Hopefully we keep banking them as much as possible.

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