The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble
1. Kent County, Mich. (pop. 656,955)
Outlook: Lean Biden
The prosperous home of Steelcase office furniture, the DeVos family’s Amway empire and President Gerald Ford, Grand Rapids was long a Republican bastion owing to its deeply conservative Dutch Reformed roots. But its white-collar work force has soured on Mr. Trump’s party, and in 2016 Mr. Trump won Kent County by just three points, down from Mitt Romney’s eight-point margin.
2. Wood County, Ohio (pop. 130,817)
Outlook: Tossup
Wood County, just south of Toledo, has multiple personalities. At its northern end are close-in Toledo bedroom communities. It has a strong affinity for rural culture: its county seat, Bowling Green, hosts the National Tractor Pulling Championships each August. And its diesel-fueled culture might be balanced out by Bowling Green State University (enrollment 19,905), a trove of Democratic votes.
3. Erie County, Penn. (pop. 269,728)
Outlook: Lean Biden
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh hog the spotlight, but Pennsylvania’s electoral ground zero might be its far northwest corner. The lakefront city of Erie is famous for assembling locomotives and packaging Smith’s meats. After decades of layoffs, it’s now home to a large population of refugees and the nation’s largest medical school by enrollment, Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine.
4. Sauk County, Wis. (pop. 64,442)
Outlook: Lean Biden
Sauk County is a popular summer vacation destination and home to the state’s largest indoor water park. Its county seat, Baraboo, was the birthplace of the Ringling Brothers circus and houses the International Clown Hall of Fame and Research Center.
In 2016, Sauk County voted for a different showman — Mr. Trump — by 0.4 points after twice voting handily for Mr. Obama. In 2018, it voted for Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, by 10 points. Mr. Trump’s campaign is counting on its door-knocking efforts, in contrast to Mr. Biden’s mostly virtual outreach, to keep it red. But Wisconsin’s expanding Covid-19 “red zone” could throw a wrench in the Republican ground game.
5. Marshall County, Iowa (pop. 39,369)
Outlook: Tossup
Marshalltown, about 50 miles northeast of Des Moines, has been hit hard by the coronavirus: In April, it experienced Covid-19 outbreaks at both the 500-bed Iowa Veterans Home and the giant JBS Swift meatpacking plant. And in August, a derecho tore through town, damaging over 700 buildings. Rebuilding is likely to take years.
Maricopa County, Ariz. (pop. 4,485,414)
Outlook: Lean Biden
Maricopa County is crucial to the state outcome; it’s home to Phoenix and 62 percent of Arizona’s residents. The county is also a living portrait of why Arizona has become so competitive: It has a young and fast-growing Hispanic population, conservative-leaning retirees from California and elsewhere and a substantial number of Mormons who once reliably voted Republican but remain skeptical of Mr. Trump.
7. Pinellas County, Fla. (pop. 974,996)
Outlook: Lean Biden
With a median age of 48 and hordes of retirees from the Midwest, Pinellas, which includes St. Petersburg, has one of the oldest populations in America. In 2012, it voted for Mr. Obama by six points, but in 2016 Mr. Trump carried it by a single point, matching his statewide margin. So far, Mr. Biden appears to be polling better than Mrs. Clinton among older voters.
A late August survey by St. Pete Polls showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 54 percent to 40 percent in the 13th Congressional District, which covers most of Pinellas. Pinellas could offer an early assessment of Florida on election night. If Mr. Trump loses Pinellas, he’ll have to make up for it with gains elsewhere — especially among Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade County.
8. Peach County, Ga. (pop. 27,546)
Outlook: Tossup
Peach County lives up to its name: It’s the home of two of the biggest peach-packing houses in Georgia. Politically, there may be no better bellwether in the state.
The population is 52 percent white and 44 percent Black, and its voting is racially polarized. In 2012, Peach County voted by seven points for Mr. Obama. But in 2016, Black turnout dropped sharply, and Mr. Trump won it by three points. Peach County could be a good indicator of whether the addition of Senator Kamala Harris to Mr. Biden’s ticket improves Black turnout.
9. New Hanover County, N.C. (pop. 234,473)
Outlook: Tossup
Wilmington’s most famous export might be Michael Jordan, but more recently its bustling movie and TV production industry has earned it the nicknames “Hollywood East” and “Wilmywood.” It was North Carolina’s largest city until the early 20th century, and today it might be its swingiest: Any entertainment industry leftism might be canceled out by a heavy military and retiree presence.
10. Collin County, Texas (pop. 1,034,730)
Outlook: Tossup
Everything is bigger in Texas — including the suburban backlash against Mr. Trump — and the political metamorphosis underway in Dallas’s white-collar northern suburbs is happening at a dizzying pace. Since 2010, Collin’s population has boomed 32 percent and is now one-sixth Asian.
In 2012, Collin County voted for Mitt Romney by 31 points. But in 2016, it voted for Mr. Trump by 17 points, and in the 2018 midterms Senator Ted Cruz carried it over Beto O’Rourke by just six points. Despite Texas’s old Wild West stereotype, the state now has one of the most metropolitan and diverse electorates in the country — and Mr. Trump’s erosion in its sprawling suburbs explains Mr. Biden’s surprising opportunity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/opinion/biden-trump-bellwether-counties-.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
= new reply since forum marked as read
...and we’ve been working to win here.
Outlook: Lean Biden
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh hog the spotlight, but Pennsylvania’s electoral ground zero might be its far northwest corner. The lakefront city of Erie is famous for assembling locomotives and packaging Smith’s meats. After decades of layoffs, it’s now home to a large population of refugees and the nation’s largest medical school by enrollment, Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine.
I have been posting over and over and over that people have fixated on "Scranton", which DID vote for Hillary, as did the county that Scranton is in (Lackawanna - although a squeaker), whereas as the first time in decades, the reliably blue Erie, flipped (although it was a close flip - the city of Erie was unable to overcome the rest of the votes in the county).
Good analysis here - https://billypenn.com/2016/11/09/how-donald-trump-won-pennsylvania-then-the-white-house/
2012
2016
