53 - 39 after the debate New NBC/WSJ

[malaise]

ByeDon the KillaCon! See yah MoFo!

[Claustrum]

1. Is this a national poll or a state poll?

[malaise]

3. National

[Claustrum]

8. thanks

[Proud liberal 80]

6. National, but

If he leads like this nationally, that would correlate to bigger leads in swing state polls.

[Claustrum]

11. Oh, I am not one of those national polls are useless people

I basically takes off 3-5 points and if Biden's lead is over that, we are fine. So +14 is huge. I will be curious to see how Trump's COVID positive will affect the numbers and this poll doesn't show that yet.

My prediction is Trump gets a little bump (in approval but mostly comes from red states) and the overall picture is stable. I would even go as far to say Trump loses some in swing states that are hard hit by COVID.

[mucifer]

2. Biden is at 80% chance to win in 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Every day that trump campaign can't reframe things the number will grow

[malaise]

5. Vote him out!

Down he goes one way or another

[PCIntern]

4. Happy Days are...(soon to be) Here Again.

[malaise]

7. Indeed - I can't wait

[Johnny2X2X]

9. Link here.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1242018

This was +8 the last time.

[malaise]

10. Thanks

[Johnny2X2X]

12. Biden won debate 49-24

This poll also had debate winner in it.

[Baitball Blogger]

13. If Covid doesn't kill Trump, the dropping poll numbers will.

[malaise]

14. I'm OK with

either

[bdamomma]

15. and his

precious stock market

[Buckeyeblue]

16. In the last two presidential elections where the incumbent President was defeated

There was a "national" feeling that the challenger was going to win by this point. I was 10 when Carter lost to Reagan. I remember thinking by this point that Carter was not going to win. I was 22 for Clinton/Bush. By October, the Clinton momentum was strong. But the contrast between the young, confident Clinton vs. the older, slower paced speeches of Bush was quite evident.

This time around, it seems to be more of a national feeling of how we want to be. The calm, empathetic demeanor of Biden is a sharp contrast to Trump's rude, abrasive approach. I think the biggest difference between 2020 and 2016 is that Trump and crew have not been able to define Biden. They haven't been able to demonize him. Even though it wasn't fair, they were able to to do that to Clinton. Which was due in equal parts to the 25 year hit job right wing media conducted against her and a still misogynistic electorate.

[Norbert]

17. A 14 point lead where we are less than a month away from election day is devistating for dump

Yes, he can still win it and yes he may peel off a few sympathy votes but to swing 11 points of that 14 points and pull another upset is starting to look unlikely.