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Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:17 PM

Now why would 538 be showing a rise in tRumps approval numbers???

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo. Because hes got the damn virus and they feel sorry for his damn ass???

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Reply Now why would 538 be showing a rise in tRumps approval numbers??? (Original post)
a kennedy Oct 3 OP
msongs Oct 3 #1
TwilightZone Oct 3 #2
Rule of Claw Oct 3 #3
TwilightZone Oct 3 #4
ProfessorGAC Oct 3 #11
MontanaFarmer Oct 3 #5
StClone Oct 3 #6
Drunken Irishman Oct 3 #13
kurtcagle Oct 3 #7
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 3 #8
Loki Liesmith Oct 3 #9
Talitha Oct 3 #10
Crunchy Frog Oct 3 #12
Iwasthere Oct 3 #14
BGBD Oct 3 #15
JustGene Oct 3 #17
BGBD Oct 3 #18
reggaehead Oct 3 #16

Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:17 PM

1. because trump is playing the media for the fools they really are/ nt

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:20 PM

2. Look at the individual polls

It looks like a few of them show a slight bump. Hence, the slight increase in the average.

Most post-debate versions of the polls aren't out yet, so it could very well drop shortly.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:20 PM

3. Because of Zogby.

 

Morning Consult has Oct 2-3 40-58. That with the early data from AZ suggests he is plummeting in the polls.

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Response to Rule of Claw (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:22 PM

4. 50-47 for Zogby.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:49 PM

11. Wouldn't Be The First Time John's Outfit Has Been That

For a couple months in '96, Zogby had Clinton's job approval in the low 40s. All other pollsters, including Gallup, had him at 58-65 over that same period.
I haven't respected their numbers since.

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Response to Rule of Claw (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:22 PM

5. Beat me to the punch.

Zogby. That is all. Even Ras has him buried.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:24 PM

6. Boris Johnson had the same increase in popularity

BJ's approval is now as low as ever. Sympathy for, regardless, the person in a crisis. Trump will get it too. I can't say why, but he will. Predictions of this were around, but it will likely go back down, unless fatal. And we will see in about ten days when the virus really gets going. But they are doing everything they can for the criminal.

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Response to StClone (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 07:00 PM

13. I hope it's nothing like Boris or Trump will win reelection rather easily...

We've got a month left.

Boris Johnson's approval prior to entering the hospital, according to YouGov.uk was around 46% (down from 48% the month before). After entering the hospital, his approval jumped 20 points to 66% in a poll that was conducted a bit over two weeks after he announced that he had tested positive and about a week after entering the hospital and a day after leaving it (April 16th). His approval roughly a month later was at 57%. It wasn't until June 6th that he finally dropped below 50%.

Of course, there's some caveats here:

1) It's one poll.
2) There's going to be way more daily/weekly polls than this YouGov poll that was done, at best, every three or four weeks, so, it's possible it'll catch the decline earlier. Between that 57% on May 10th and the 43% on June 6th, who knows how fast it dropped?

With that said, we've got 31 days until the election.

31 days from the time Johnson was admitted to the hospital was May 6th. The poll released a few days later (May 10th) again had his approval still relatively high at 57%.

If that happens to Trump, he'll win reelection rather easily - likely taking PA, MI, WI, FL, NC, OH, IA, maybe MN and NH, along with AZ and NV.

But like I said, that's just one poll.

You can view other polls here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

He definitely saw a significant jump in support in other polls.

A month out, though, he was still +20 in most polls.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:25 PM

7. Zogby

And yes. People generally don't like to speak ill of the ill, and there have been a few polls (including the Zogby) polls that 538 weighs fairly heavily that show that flip. Zogby actually didn't have him underwater, so it bumped up his numbers overall.

Overall, at this stage in the election, I don't think it will make any difference, but I also expect that this will be a temporary bump.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:33 PM

8. I know! I have looked at that every day for 4 years. I see the

trends week to week. It is troubling. Approvals and matchups.

I wonder who controls the test results in the WH? The Quacktor? When I took a test I got a result text.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:38 PM

9. Just a single zogby poll, don't sweat it

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:42 PM

10. Lemme guess.... because he's finally quiet?

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 06:52 PM

12. Exactly what I expected to happen.

I still think that he did it on purpose to try and save his campaign.

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Response to Crunchy Frog (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 07:03 PM

14. Exactly!

He was so desperate, appeared finished, now it seems all the big late breaking negative stories are wiped off the screen.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 07:04 PM

15. 538 doesn't decide the numbers

This is an average and its being inflated by some bad polls like Zogby and Ras.

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Response to BGBD (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 07:09 PM

17. Also, state polls are weighted heavier on 538

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Response to JustGene (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 08:49 PM

18. The only number

That I saw change was the approval numbers going up a bit on the Zogby poll.

The model hasn't changed at all today. Still 80/20

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2020, 07:06 PM

16. No

These daily polls are oversampling fascists. This has been going on for at least a month

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