Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

ChrisWeigant

(947 posts)
Fri Oct 2, 2020, 07:43 PM Oct 2020

Friday Talking Points -- October Schadenfreudefest

It's October... surprise!

The thing about October surprises is that they're always, well, surprising. No one expects them, and no one can predict their coming. That's the nature of any true surprise.

Late last night, the political world began reeling from what could be the biggest October surprise in a generation (at the very least), as the White House announced that President Donald Trump and his wife First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19.

This was greeted in some quarters as not so much an October surprise as (to coin a term) an October schadenfreudefest. If there is any one individual who richly deserves to contract the coronavirus, after all, it is Donald Trump. Trump has pooh-poohed the virus from the very first, insisting that it will magically go away ("by April, when the weather warms up" ), that it isn't that big a deal ("it's like the flu" ), that testing is unnecessary, that it affects "almost no one," that most people get a mild case and recover, that many don't even know they've got it, that children "get the sniffles" (no big deal), that we've already defeated it ("we've turned the corner" ), that it's all in the past, that getting the economy going again and getting kids back to school is more important than any imagined risk, and -- worst of all -- that wearing masks and social distancing and all that stuff is for sissies and definitely not for real macho men like him. Or to put it another way, the karma wasn't instant, but it caught up to Trump in the end.

We are now one day and one month away from the election. And now, for half of that time, the president will be quarantined in the White House. He will not be able to hold his beloved rallies, he will not be able to meet with fatcat donors, he will not be able to schmooze with his buddies in the Oval Office. He will be confined to his quarters, where he will likely watch even more cable news that he normally does. He can rant and rave about the unfairness of the universe all he wants, but most people will see it as an entirely deserved fate. When you mock all attempts to slow the spread of a pandemic and scoff at anyone who follows the pointy-headed experts' advice, then you deserve little-to-no sympathy yourself when the virus proves stronger than your attempts to pretend it doesn't exist.

If these were normal times, in fact, a president getting sick in the midst of a pandemic would actually be a huge political boost for his chances of getting re-elected. The sympathy vote would be enormous. But these are not normal times, nor is Donald Trump a normal president. For the entire course of the pandemic, President Trump has express virtually no sympathy for the millions of Americans who have come down with the virus, and hasn't even expressed any real condolences for the 210,000 American families (and counting) who have lost a beloved member. His own lack of sympathy for this entire time will now come home to roost in a big way, as few voters are likely to feel too sorry for Trump right now.

There is one good thing that could come of this, if Trump makes a giant U-turn and starts promoting wearing face masks and social distancing and preventative hygiene. If wearing a mask (a "MAGA mask" maybe?) becomes a test of his followers devotion to him, then this could wind up saving tens of thousands of lives in the upcoming months. That would indeed be a positive outcome.

Of course, from Democrats' perspective, another real positive outcome would be Trump losing in a landslide in November. It's hard not to see that the chances of this just went way up. For the past couple of months, Trump has tried to distract the country from the pandemic by bringing up anything he could that would fill up a news cycle. Any outrageous thing he said or did that pushed the pandemic out of the headlines was like political gold to him. And in a number of instances, this worked quite well for him. Americans are weary of the pandemic, but at the same time they've gotten somewhat used to the danger. Until a vaccine appears on the horizon, life isn't going to change much from where we all are now. There will be no normalcy for months to come -- everyone has pretty much accepted this by now. This helped Trump distract from the seriousness of the pandemic, but this isn't going to be possible anymore.

Trump's sickness has now become the big story. It reminds everyone that we have not turned any sort of corner, that the virus is still raging out there, and that we may indeed be on the brink of a new wave of infections caused by cooler weather (when everyone moves more indoors). Cases were already spiking across much of the country, mostly in states that largely avoided the first waves. Or, to put it another way, there simply is no safe place left anymore. Not even the Oval Office, obviously.

How will Trump weather quarantine? That's certainly an interesting question. The White House today admitted that he is actually exhibiting symptoms (they called them "mild" ), so he's already not one of those asymptomatic cases. Will it continue to be mild for him or will it become more debilitating? Trump famously hates showing any kind of weakness at all, but if he is visibly weakened by the virus will this affect how his own voters see him? There are all kinds of unanswered questions, at this point. Serious symptoms, if they do occur, will likely appear over the course of the next five days or so.

This raises a new and serious question, as well. At what point does Trump become so feverish that he cannot be trusted to perform his duties? Of course, the word "feverish" could accurately be applied (metaphorically) to just about any day out of any week of Trump's entire time in office, but in this instance it would be literal. At what point does Trump become so disoriented and irrational that his cabinet starts re-reading the text of the 25th Amendment? All they have to do is have a majority of them sign a piece of paper, and Mike Pence will instantly become Acting President Pence for the duration. This may seem like a slim possibility, but we'll see how things go for the next week or so. It may become a necessity. So far, Pence has tested negative.

An even more far-fetched outcome would be if Pence falls sick too, and gets just as feverish as Trump. In that case, if the cabinet agreed (not very likely), then Nancy Pelosi would become Acting President Pelosi. That's about as schadenfreude-y as it gets.

No matter what happens, though, one of Trump's biggest campaign themes has now been obliterated. He was trying to gaslight the voters into believing that his response to the pandemic has been nothing short of amazing, and that he had done such a good job that everything was now back to normal once again -- except in states and cities run by Democrats, who were holding up reopening the economy just to stick it to Trump. We had turned the corner already, there was nothing left to worry about, and by the end of October Trump had planned to make some sort of announcement about the approval of a vaccine. Trump to the rescue! And we'd all live happily ever after (and, of course, vote to re-elect our Dear Savior).

That, as they say in Washington, is "no longer operative." It always was a fantasy story, but it was one that Trump was selling to a whole lot of voters. But how can he possibly even attempt to do so now, when he can't even hold his beloved rallies anymore? Trump could decide to go virtual and start addressing supporters and donors via computer, but once again this undermines one of his campaign themes -- that Joe Biden was a weenie for doing exactly the same thing. This time it will be Trump "hiding in the attic" (the president's personal residence isn't "in the basement" but rather on the top floor of the White House). So how will Trump square that with all the taunts he's been throwing at Biden?

Trump will be running a risk over the course of his sickness, even if he does embrace Biden's virtual campaign tactics. What happens if he appears on video and is visibly not well at all? He could look weak, he could look disoriented, he could even collapse in the middle of a presentation. This would, no doubt, change the way voters see him. It's hard to be a strongman when you're sniffling and having a hard time breathing, to state the obvious. Or can't even hold a rational thought in your head. These are all clear possibilities if Trump's symptoms become more serious.

But there's a further risk, because if Trump doesn't make public appearances, then people are going to be wondering just how sick he is. Nobody's going to believe any of the White House doctors or medical experts, because Trump has so politicized their ranks that all anyone expects from them at this point is sheer propaganda. Dr. Anthony Fauci examining Trump and reporting the results is about the only thing that most people would trust even a little bit. So if Trump disappears from public view for more than a period of a few days, the rumors will start flying that his sickness is a lot more serious than anyone is letting on. Which is a different kind of political risk for Trump.

Of course, no one with an ounce of compassion is wishing for it, but there's an even grimmer possibility to consider as well. What happens if Trump doesn't recover? What happens if he dies of the coronavirus? This close to an election, it would be impossible to remove his name from the ballots (although, admittedly, we have not checked the election laws in all 50 states -- which vary, state by state). Ballots have already been sent out to tens of millions of voters, after all. So the Republican Party would not even be able to replace Trump's name on the ballot with Mike Pence (or whomever else they chose). So what would a vote for a dead man mean, when it comes to the presidency? This is a situation that has never happened in American politics before (it has happened in governors' races and Senate races, but never the presidency). Which means nobody would really know what the correct procedure would be.

Assuming Trump does recover, though, the first political question will be what happens to the next two debates? The first is on the edge of Trump's 14-day quarantine, but would Joe Biden really agree to stand in the same room as a possibly-still-infectious Trump? Perhaps the debates will have to be held via Zoom -- which would certainly make muting Trump a whole lot easier for the moderator. About the only certainty if the next debates happen is that Trump won't be taking cheap shots at Joe Biden for wearing a mask. That clip (from this week's trainwreck of a debate) is already playing on a loop on cable news today.

Nothing exemplifies the failure of Trump to take the coronavirus seriously as perfectly as him catching it, one month from the election. His way failed, obviously. Pretending it was going to go away, was going away, or had already gone away was nothing more than folly. It was dangerous foolishness from the get-go. And now the proof is there for all to see.

President Donald Trump faced his worst crisis, and he simply was not up to the task. That is the clear message his positive test just sent to all voters in the country. He never took it seriously enough, and he is now going to pay the price for that callousness and obliviousness. He cannot gaslight this away as some sort of "hoax" anymore. Not when he's fighting it himself.

This is such a momentous turnaround in politics that we have chosen to just throw out all the early drafts of this column, where we reviewed the past week in politics. The worst presidential debate in American history happened this week, but we already addressed it in our earlier reviews. Plenty of other things were happening in Washington as well, but it all pales in comparison to the October surprise most of us woke up to this morning. So we'll have to wait until next week to return to our normal format.

The October schadenfreudefest most Democrats are experiencing right now is based on one simple fact -- Joe Biden's chances for victory just went up. A visibly-sick Trump is going to look weak, both physically and politically. Trump made an enormous bet on trying to wish the coronavirus pandemic away, and he just lost that bet in the most personal way imaginable. Trump's response to the pandemic is now, unquestionably, a huge failure. Those are the three things Trump never wants to be seen as -- weak, a loser, and a failure. It undermines his personal brand in the most devastating way possible. Whether at the margins or in droves, it will quite likely undermine his support with voters as well. Joe Biden already had a pretty comfortable lead in all the polls, and Trump's illness is only going to expand it. October surprises have a way of completely upending political races, and this one is going to be no different. It's hard to even see anything Team Trump tries to do (to generate their own anti-Biden October surprise) as even being able to change this new dynamic. With one month and one day to go before the election, we've already had the biggest October surprise of them all.





Joe Biden certainly was impressively calm in the face of Hurricane Donald this week, in the first presidential debate. Biden showed he could not be rattled by Trump, no matter how rude Trump got. But we're only going to give him an Honorable Mention for his effort.

Because in our opinion Chuck Schumer had a better week. We wrote about this at length yesterday, so we're just going to cut and paste a bit, to explain:

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer managed a rather extraordinary feat this week -- he forced a Senate floor vote on a bill designed to become campaign ad fodder for Democratic challengers to vulnerable Republicans. This is notable, because normally the Majority Leader Mitch McConnell controls what gets floor votes, not the minority party. And it was even more notable because five Republicans voted for it out of sheer terror of it being used in an ad against them. Three others didn't take the bait, and can now expect such ads to begin airing soon.

The bill would have (if passed and signed into law by President Trump, which would never actually happen, it must be pointed out) banned the federal government from arguing in court to kill the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in court. This is important for three big reasons: (1) the Trump administration has already joined the lawsuit trying to overturn Obamacare in its entirety, (2) the case will be heard before the Supreme Court almost immediately after the election, and (3) Senate Republicans are rushing to get another Supreme Court justice confirmed before the election.

The bill got 51 votes for it while only 43 voted against it. These five Republican senators voted with the Democrats to bar the government from weighing in on the case: Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Dan Sullivan, and Martha McSally. If you recognize some (or all) of those names, it is because they are in a fight for their political lives in the upcoming election. Maine's Susan Collins, Colorado's Cory Gardner, and Arizona's Martha McSally may all already be toast, if the polling proves to be correct. Joni Ernst in Iowa and Alaska's Dan Sullivan are in slightly better shape, but are both seriously threatened as well. So threatened that all five Republicans essentially just cast a vote in favor of Obamacare. Think about that for just a moment.

Three others, however, decided to risk the wrath of their voters and voted to allow the federal government argue that Obamacare should be totally and completely eliminated -- which, of course, means that people with pre-existing conditions (including the millions who have contracted COVID-19, assumably) would no longer be protected in any way. Insurance companies could just refuse to insure them, once again. The Obamacare marketplaces would disappear, leaving them all in the lurch. The three who gambled on this political position were Steve Daines of Montana, David Perdue of Georgia, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Of the three, Tillis is in the most danger of losing his seat, but the other two are also possible pickups for Democrats as well.

The ads, of course, will almost write themselves: "Senator Tillis voted to support overturning all protections for people with pre-existing conditions. I have [life-threatening illness], and my care costs [an obscene amount of money] per month, so this would be an absolute death sentence for me. Sometimes you hear the phrase: 'vote like your life depends on it.' Well, for me, it does. I hope you'll join me in voting for life -- my life and the lives of countless other North Carolinians -- by voting for Cal Cunningham." Democrats already played this card, during their national convention, so it's pretty easy to see that they're going to play it again everywhere they think it'll be effective.


This is rather extraordinary for two reasons: (1) Schumer got the vote in the first place, through a parliamentary maneuver that hasn't been successful in a decade, and (2) Schumer successfully split the Republican ranks on Obamacare one month before an election that may hand him control of the Senate. That is impressive. Which is why Schumer is our Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week this week.

Republicans have tried for two election cycles to have things both ways. They still hate Obamacare and want to destroy it, but they have come to realize that they have to at least give lip service to "protecting people with pre-existing conditions," as well. However, merely saying it does not make it so. Donald Trump even went to the extreme with this gambit, by signing an executive order to "protect people with pre-existing conditions." It is meaningless, for two big reasons: (1) Obamacare -- which protects people with pre-existing conditions -- is federal law already, and (2) if Obamacare is overturned, the executive order won't do doodley-squat to protect anyone. That would require a replacement for Obamacare to pass Congress. And Obamacare was a careful balance of a complex juggling act of issues, only one of which was the protection for pre-existing conditions. You cannot just legislate that one part of it and ignore everything else, because (according to them) this would bankrupt the insurance companies. The whole solution is needed to solve this one part.

In the 2018 midterms, Republicans tried to pull the wool over the voters' eyes on pre-existing conditions. They failed miserably, since no one believed they cared one iota for anyone's healthcare. Democrats own this field, and they made enormous gains politically because of it. Democrats are looking for a repeat of this in 2020, using pretty much the same playbook. But this time around, Republicans are even more aware how much this issue is hurting them with the voters. Several close Senate races could hinge on it, in fact.

Which is why Chuck Schumer deserves the Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week award. By using his parliamentary trick to force Mitch McConnell to hold a vote, he widened a split in the GOP. He also provided an issue ready for harsh political ads to several Democratic candidates. Schumer may not be able to stop Trump's Supreme Court pick from getting confirmed, but this week he showed that he's still got plenty of ways to advance his own party's prospects.

[Congratulate Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on his Senate contact page, to let him know you appreciate his efforts.]




We had one nomination for the Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week this week, but in the end we decided it wasn't worth it.

In normal times, Joe Biden would have ruffled some feathers on the leftward side of the Democratic Party this week, by refusing to say anything nice about the Green New Deal and boasting of how badly he beat Bernie Sanders in the primaries.

But you know what? We don't care. In fact, we think it was probably a pretty good move for Biden to have made, politically. One of Trump's biggest lines of attack was going to be that Biden was some sort of puppet of the lefties, whose strings would doubtlessly be pulled by the likes of Bernie and A.O.C. once he got into office. Trump's been teeing up this attack for months, in fact. Biden distancing himself from such views, though, meant the attack simply could not land a blow on him. Trump flailed around to argue the exact opposite during the debate -- that by doing so, Biden had just "lost" the support of all the lefties.

The lefties I know, however, don't give a rat's patootie what Biden has to say about them now. They are going to vote for Biden come Hell or high water (both of which are distinct possibilities, the way this year's been going). There is literally nothing Trump could say or do to convince them otherwise.

Lefties have largely gotten beyond Bernie's loss. They have made their peace with the idea of a Biden presidency. They know full well that Biden will disappoint them on certain things over the course of the next four years, and they fully accept this, eyes wide open.

Because anything Biden does is going to be miles better than having Trump as president. Lefties were blamed (fairly or not) the last time around for "staying home" and not sufficiently supporting the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. This time around, they are determined not to have this happen again.

Sure, they'll be voting against Trump more than they'll be voting for Biden, but you know what? That vote counts just the same as one from a enthusiastic Biden supporter.

This all adds up to the fact that the lefties (at least the ones we know) know there's going to be some disappointment later from Biden, but they just don't care. Anything is better than Trump, after all. And if Biden can pick up some more support in the Midwest and other purple states by distancing himself from the Green New Deal, then that's just fine with them.

Which is why we're going to have to put the Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week back on the shelf for another week.




Volume 591 (10/2/20)

For once, we have restrained ourselves here. These may be the shortest talking points we've ever offered up, in fact (we'd have to check, but since there are 590 other columns to check, we're just going to go ahead and assume).

Just as with our introductory segment, all of these deal with the October surprise of Trump testing positive. Sure, other things happened this week and Joe Biden's got lots of good talking points to use out on the campaign trail, but instead we've decided to focus solely on snappy one-liners to deploy to talk about Trump's current situation.

Trump's positive test is a game-changer. It is going to force him to totally rewrite large parts of his campaign script. He will no longer be able to get away with distracting everyone from the pandemic, now that it has hit home for him.

So these are the things Democrats should be saying in order to drive this point home. Every one of these is short and sweet, and pretty easy to remember. For once, instead of a whole paragraph's worth of set-up, none of these require any explanation or details whatsoever. So here is the most-succinct list of talking points we think we've ever written, to address Trump testing positive for the coronavirus.



Protect and defend

This is the ultimate rhetorical question to ask, because nothing else boils it down quite so neatly:

"How can Trump protect other Americans when he can't even protect himself?"



Don't hold your breath

Remember Tuesday? It wasn't that long ago. That's when Trump taunted Joe Biden for wearing a mask in public -- something Trump has done repeatedly throughout the campaign. Perhaps he'll change his tune now? It's worth asking.

"Maybe now Trump will stop making fun of people who wear masks."



A message for all his supporters

Mr. Macho just got it -- so can you. So be careful.

"See? If Donald Trump can get the coronavirus, then anyone can get it."



I'm just going to click on this icon, here...

This could force a change in a big way, and for the better.

"A presidential debate over Zoom would certainly help, since the moderator will have a 'Mute' button."



Q.E.D.

He didn't just fail on a personal level, it's much bigger than that.

"Trump's pandemic response has been an utter failure from the start right up to him contracting the virus himself. In fact, it's hard to even imagine a bigger failure."



What goes around comes around

Time for this chicken to come home to roost. This should be the response to any criticism of a lack of sympathy for Donald Trump.

"I feel just as sorry for Trump as he has felt all along for the other seven million Americans who got COVID-19, or for the 210,000 families who lost one of their own to the virus."



The ultimate Trump insult

Saved the best for last. This can be used generically, or specifically if a video of him visibly affected leaks out in the next couple of weeks.

"Boy, Trump sure does look weak, doesn't he?"




Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com
Follow Chris on Twitter: ChrisWeigant
Full archives of FTP columns: FridayTalkingPoints.com
1 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Friday Talking Points -- October Schadenfreudefest (Original Post) ChrisWeigant Oct 2020 OP
K&R nt flying rabbit Oct 2020 #1
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Friday Talking Points -- ...