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Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:04 PM

538 projection shows Biden at all time high

538 now puts a Biden win at 80:20 one point higher than ever before.

I know, I know. Don't get lax, don't believe the polls but if I can spend a few hours believing in Harry Dresden fighting alongside Santa Claus I can spend 5 minutes fantasizing that probability is actuality.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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Reply 538 projection shows Biden at all time high (Original post)
HelpImSurrounded Oct 2020 OP
Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #1
idziak4ever1234 Oct 2020 #2
HelpImSurrounded Oct 2020 #6
beachbumbob Oct 2020 #3
Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #4
StClone Oct 2020 #5
Jarqui Oct 2020 #7
wryter2000 Oct 2020 #8
honest.abe Oct 2020 #9
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #12
Cicada Oct 2020 #10
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #13
Cicada Oct 2020 #14
TwilightZone Oct 2020 #16
Cicada Oct 2020 #17
Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #18
katusha Oct 2020 #11
crickets Oct 2020 #15

Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:06 PM

1. 80/19 at this moment! Must be due in part to the debate debacle? Nt

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:06 PM

2. I know! Don't peak too early! Moving in the right direction.

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:07 PM

3. we all want the asshat sent packing to moscow or prison, never be a loss of enthusiasm

 

as we pile on the electoral votes and popular vote counts

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:07 PM

4. Teens ... here comes Donald !!! Cover up

 

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:09 PM

5. Fake Numbers

I don't believe it! Yes I'm Kidding...nevertheless

Everybody get a Friend, convince your brother or sister, get the kids and vote. Must win! Must win!

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:14 PM

7. Trump and his people are dishonest, ruthless criminals

If the foot of the Biden campaign is on the neck of the Trump campaign, we need to finish them. No quarter.

GOP enablers too.

There's probably some garbage smear and bogus vaccine announcement coming.

I suspect there will be plenty of dirty surprises/tactics and sleazy activity we can't imagine go on.

Leave nothing to chance. Trump and the GOP are too corrupt.

End this authoritarian regime.

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:17 PM

8. It is looking good

Just logically, Trump only won by under 100,000 votes in three states. He can't afford to lose a single state.

I haven't heard that Trump is ahead in a single state Hillary won. On the other hand, there are about four or more "Trump" states where Biden has a significant lead. If only one of those states flips, Biden wins. There''s no way in hell he's going to lose.

Yes, we all said Trump would never get elected, but that was just because we didn't think the American people would elect a buffoon and grifter with no government experience whatsoever. It wasn't based on numbers.

So, now we have to win the Senate, or Moscow Mitch will go back to blocking everything. We have really good chances in AZ, CO, NC, ME, and I heard yesterday GA is going our way, too. Plus, Doug Jones is getting close in AL. IMHO, if people have money to donate, I'd put it into Senate races.

If we win and get rid of the filibuster, the Republican party is completely out of power (except for the courts). They can do nothing to stop us. Frankly, I'd like for Moscow Mitch to remain and have to shut up and take whatever we dish out. I'd like to watch him flail and whine to no effect.

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:17 PM

9. I think optimism breeds success.

If people think Joe has a good chance to win, the more they will donate, help with GOTV and ultimately vote.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:50 PM

12. Me too.

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:18 PM

10. Hold your horses, Nellie. Betting odds only 60 to 38

Go to election betting odds, yes itís John Sossel and John Lottís son Maxim who run it. But itís public info, it matches other sites. AND click on track record.,Betting odds are good predictors, maybe as good as polls. The track records look at all the times in history the odds of someone winning at 43% compared with the percentage of time he actually won. It matches closely. In the bucket of predictions between 20% and 40%,:the number of wins in reality was 30%.:Or pretty close. So the damn betting odds somehow do a good job of predicting the future. Maybe as good as polls? So itís 60 to 38 there.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

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Response to Cicada (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:52 PM

13. Just stop...you have to look long and hard to find any bad news...

because there is none...and twisting the betting odds which include four or five other Democrats is not bad news.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 01:01 PM

14. I want real news, not good news nor bad news

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Response to Cicada (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 01:32 PM

16. Betting odds aren't real news.

That is one of the (unintentionally) funniest things I've ever read on DU.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #16)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 02:10 PM

17. This is a proven fact:election betting odds have predictive validity

At the track favorites win more often than long shots.

In elections in the US candidates with higher betting odds win more often than those with lower betting odds. There is aN extensive empirical track record. If you look at 500 past elections where the Democrat has Betting odds of winning between, say, 30% and 40%, what percentage of those 500 democrats have won? About 35%. If you look at 500 democrats with betting odds between 70% and 80%, say, what percentage of them actually won? About 75%.

At election betting odds dot com you can click on track record to see the actual empirical historic accuracy of betting odds , just like at 538 you can look at the Empirical historic accuracy of polls.

Both polls and betting markets have proven predictive validity. Absent information on the best way to combine those two sources of predictive information I just average the two.

You can laugh. But I bet Iíve made more money betting than you have. And I have tax returns showing that when I was a professional gambler, before the govt made betting on the internet illegal, I paid a lot of taxes because I won more than I lost. I donít bet on elections, even though betting on Predictit is legal in the US, because I donít think Iím as smart about elections as the betting market is. Look at 2016. The betting markets did not peg Trump as that big of an underdog.

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Response to Cicada (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 03:10 PM

18. Same thing with pointspreads in sports betting

 

The win expectancy at each number follows perfectly along a parallel path of the actual results

But that is among thousands and thousands of results. As you mentioned, politics works the same way if every result is included. But when one outcome stands out far above all others, and happens only once in four years, people are less willing to accept the betting odds as meaningful, and in such a tiny sample they can point to outliers as "proof."

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:44 PM

11. did you notice that

the "most likely" outcome puts Biden at well over 400 electoral votes? i hope that pans out.

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Response to katusha (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 01:31 PM

15. Oh, please let it be so.

I want the humiliating blowout, can't even think about contesting it, full-throated, 'GO AWAY!' defeat. So, so want it.

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