Carville agrees with my theory on how trump will eventually leave the White House

[Gothmog]

I do not believe that trump really believe that he can truly contest the election results if the current polling results are accurate. If the current polls are accurate, Biden will win by a landslide and there will be no legitimate way to contest the election result. Floriuda will have accurate election results out on election night that will be good except for some miliary ballots. If trump loses Florida, then any election contest will be doomed to fail. However trump's threats could give him leverage to negotiate a plea deal with Governor Cuomo, AG James or DA Cyrus Vance where trump would agree to a peaceful transfer of power in exchange for no prison time for NY state tax charges.

I believe that trump will either pardon himself or will resign and have Pence pardon him for all federal crimes. trump may pardon his family members and some loyal idiots like Barr. The pardon will get rid of federal crimes and so trump needs to worry about state crimes and hsi biggest risk is NY state. I believe that trump will cur a deal with NY for a peaceful transfer of power in exchange for no prison time for turmp and perhaps members of his family

Carville agrees with my theory

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

This would be in effect a plea deal and not a pardon

Link to tweet

[Karadeniz]

1. NO! THE GRIFT STOPS HERE.

[TheBlackAdder]

18. Are pardons legal if they are performed under duress?

[Stuart G]

2. Cuomo will NOT PARDON TRUMP.

[TeamPooka]

20. A big reason Ford lost in 76 was for pardoning Nixon. Cuomo won't self destruct like that.

[radius777]

3. No deal. If Trump loses he will be made to leave

whether he likes it or not.

Trump and his crime family must be held accountable - we can't let him slip away the way BushCo did.

[The Magistrate]

4. There Is No Need To Deal With Him, Sir

He walks out or he is carried out. His term ends. If, as seems certain to be the case, he committed various frauds in securing loans and paying taxes, he will be arrested and tried, and sentenced on conviction.

[Gothmog]

6. A peaceful transfer of power is a norm that may be worth negotiating on

[The Magistrate]

8. I Disagree, Sir

It is not a peaceful transfer of power if a good must be given up to get it.

It is paying Danegeld.

Norms are over, and cannot be restored unless the breaking of them receives condign punishment.

Better shots are fired than that this man is paid off to obey the law and the Constitution.

[Pachamama]

19. +100000

Well explained and said Sir....

[crickets]

39. Absolutely agreed. nt

[grantcart]

11. No and it wouldn't be enforceable

Any contact that furthers an illegal act is not enforceable, including a pardon.

[Thekaspervote]

14. I have to agree

It would do a lot to stop the violence, and silence his cult if he just quietly slithered away. If he slithers away so will they.

If he continues hunkered down following the election the cornered rat will just lash out all the more ripping the country further apart, inciting violence.

Just MHO, but his defense will be he is mentally or physically unfit, or both to stand trial. We’ve all seen him failing more and more

Your opinion gothmog..please

[dansolo]

26. It won't stop anything

His followers won't just slink away. Trump and his followers need to know that he can't get away with his crimes. If Trump is pardoned, he will still be able to rile up his followers. He can't tweet from jail.

[Willto]

23. Disagree

("A peaceful transfer of power is a norm that may be worth negotiating on"

I really can't stress enough what a dangerous precedent that would be to set.

[Duppers]

31. Exactly!

Thank you.

[regnaD kciN]

5. I don't even know how such a "deal" would be worked out...

[Blue Owl]

7. The Shart of the Deal

n/t

[JI7]

9. He is in NO position to negotiation a deal in NY State based on him leaving "peacefully"

FUCK HIM .

[grantcart]

10. I have been saying the same thing its call about

Getting a global get out of jail free card.

He is not playing Monopoly and is going down


Once loses everyone will run away.

Pence pardon won't be legal because it furthers an illegal act


Parscale and all will be flipping in a New York minute.

[Gothmog]

37. I believe that the POTUS pardon power needs to be limited

I am afraid that it may take a constitutional amendment to limit such power. If trump abuses the power as Carville and I fera he will, there may be support for real limits on the POTUS pardon power.

[grantcart]

40. It already has limits

Any contract, agreement, or official act that furthers an illegal act is by definition illegal and void, this is basic law.

A President could not murder his wife ( or commit a federal crime) and then make an agreement with the Vice President to resign in exchange for a pardon. They could try it but if you prove the underlying charge the pardon would be vacated.

I am sure it is news to Barr but any act that furthers a crime would not be legal.

When Ford pardoned Nixon there was no allegation that there was a quid pro quo.

Trump isn't going to resign or pardon himself. He is going to try and stir shit up so much that he thinks that everyone will think it is better to negotiate an end to prosecution than have him rant about prosecutions, it's how he negotiated his bankruptcies. He decided what he wanted the banks to do and then told them to accept it or he would destroy the business and they would get nothing. They caved 4 times.

[Boogiemack]

12. I believe that NY will put him in jail. Or some rape charge will pop up and put him there. nt

[Salviati]

13. Plea deals can be reversed if party is under duress...

I mean generally it's the defendant that's the one under duress, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander.

[Hekate]

15. Kick!

What a day.

[Quixote1818]

16. Don't make deals with terrorists. nt

[Lunabell]

17. This can't happen.

Trump and his crime family need to pay!

[TreasonousBastard]

21. No way! No way does Cuomo have the right to cut a state deal on federal affairs....

And why would he want to?

Assuming Biden wins, Trump's term is up on 1/20. No ifs, ands, buts, or bullshit. He is out of office and has no support from anyone who counts to avoid being tossed out on his ass if he doesn't leave willingly. A few teabaggers and boogaloo boys can be dealt with handily by Federal and DC forces.

A bunch of potential state charges do have time limits on them, so we will see him walk on a bunch, but no politician can save him from another onslaught of civil lawsuits.

Stop smelling the shit Trump keeps throwing on the walls.

[Tactical Peek]

22. He goes peaceablelike, or he gets carried away like Parscale.

[Buckeyeblue]

24. I think we need multiple concession from Trump

1. He'll need to resign before the election for crimes the he committed (he needs to say that in his resignation speech)

2. SC nomination is withdrawn

3. ACA arguments in front of the SC are postponed until Spring

4. This deal will be for both federal and state crimes. If he accepts a federal pardon, the state deal is off

5. He'll agree to plead guilty and pay back all taxes by selling off all assets.

6. He must name names on all money laundering charges

7. He must cooperate in any other way fed/state prosecutors see fit

8. If he cooperates his children will get the opportunity for the same deal

[Gothmog]

36. While I agree with the goals of these negotiating positions

I personally would like to see trump go to prison. Howevery in the real world this deal would only be struck after the Nov. 3 electons and the only thing that will be on the table is a peaceful transfer of power vs. a possible plea deal with Cyrus Vance and/or AG James. Please understand that if trump is pardoned, then the 5th Amendment will not apply to trump and he will have to cooperate in any investigations following such a pardon

[grantcart]

41. No concessions

[Buckeyeblue]

43. I don't think that is realistic. We are not going to put a former president in prison.

[grantcart]

44. We arent going to "put a former President in prison" and we aren't going to prosecute Trump

We are going to prosecute crimes. That is the only way forward.

If Trump is guilty of committing a criminal offense he will be prosecuted and he will be imprisoned but not in a jail or prison.

As a former CiC he can serve out his term in a military blockade isolated from other prisoners on a military base in a stand alone facility.

There are multiple problems with your scenario not the least of which is his agreements are worthless because he won't keep them. Once he gets a pardon he is under no obligation to follow up on his agreements.

The only way he could avoid prosecution is to plead guilty and get a supervised probation where breaking the negotiated plea,would result in prison, and he won't agree to that, he would rather risk a trial.

Once he received his pardon, under your scenario he would be legally free the next day to call it all a hoax and declare his candidacy for President again.

[fescuerescue]

42. You should write those up and send those to the Prosecutor

That's good stuff there.

[Klaralven]

25. Given the sprawl of his enterprises, I doubt that NY is the only state he's cheated.

[onetexan]

27. Lock him up!! No pardon for a heinous crook whose ruined so many lives!!

250K+ dead, families struggling financially due to job loss, families unable to visit sick & dying relatives and elderly because of pandemic restrictions, thousands of immigrant families broken up, adults and kids suffering in cages in squalid conditions, hundreds dead or injured due to discrimination because of his support of RW/racists, enriching the wealthy while taking away working people's healthcare and tax burdens, colluding with our foreign enemies, isolating the nation against our allies abroad, election tampering, defrauding Americans of who he really is: a failed businessman and a loser, not the rich guy worth 10 billion, stealing an election and the attempted steal going on now ...

way too many crimes to list here. He cannot be pardoned. He needs to pay for his crimes.

[Buckeyeblue]

28. I don't think we need prison to adequately punish him

Being a national disgrace would be pretty devastating. Having to admit in public to all of your crimes would be devastating. Having to watch as Republicans refused to say your name would be pretty devastating. Having to sell off everything with your name on it would be pretty devastating.

He'll be penniless and inconsequential. And it will be recorded in his own words. No one will be able to claim it didn't happen.

[onetexan]

29. I disagree. If people can be thrown into jail for small amounts of contraband, this crook needs a

A life sentence IMO.

[Duppers]

32. NO!

Think of the damage he has done. There are people in prison who've done less.

So.... Hell No. Justice must be served.

[The Magistrate]

47. I Disagree, Sir

"Justice must not only be done, Justice must be seen to be done."

[Cosmocat]

30. None of that makes any sense

First, the election is not likely going to be a blowout. Some of these in betweenish states might break Biden's way, but end of the day Florida and Ohio are still likely to go his way, and if that happens and Joe picks up a few like NC, Arizona, he can get a clear, but not blowout win.

Second, how does this pardon work when he has no charges?

[Gothmog]

33. If the current polling is accurate, then this will be a blowout for the electoral college

I have seen projections that under current polling. Biden could win 350+ votes in the electoral college. Again, I do not like the electoral college but under the rules of the electoral college it is not impossible for Biden to get close to 400 voes in the electoral college is the current trends continue. Texas is a battleground states and Texas' 38 votes could give Biden 400 or mor electoral college votes

[Gothmog]

34. While I agree with Carville's analysis/prediction, I personally would like to see trump in prioson

Two things-first I do not approve of this set of actions. Personally I think that trump should go to prison. The federal pardon power is currently unchecked and trump can pardon his family and others for federal charges and I think that Pence could pardon trump if trump resigns. I see that there are proposals to limit the presidential pardon power and I support these proposals (a constitutional amendment may be necessary). If there are not limits to the Presidientail pardon powers, then trump only needs to worry about state charges

Second, Cuomo may not be involved. Cyrus Vance is the district attorney who appears to have jurisdiction (AG James seems to only have civil jurisdiction here but I am not a member of the NY bar). As the state official with the appropriate jurisdiction, Vance appeart to have the power to cut a plea deal. A peaceful transfer of power is a good thing and it may not be unreasonable to cut a deal to assure a peaceful transfer of power. If there is a plea deal and trump agrees to such a deal, then res judicata will apply and double jeopardy will attach as to NY state charges. Again, I am not a member of the NY bar and it may be that AG James needs to be involved in such a plea deal. Right now, I do not believe that Cuomo needs to be involved in that the governor normally is not involved in plea deals cut by prosecutors.

NY has some interesting rules on double jeopardy but I do not see these rules applying if there is a presdiental pardon for fereal charges and a valid plea deal entered into with the NY state offical who has the authority to make such deal

[Yavin4]

35. I kinda want to see Trump being dragged kicking and screaming from the White House.

Such a spectacle would be the most calorie free fun one can have.

[Gothmog]

38. Such a result wold be fun

Such action would also mean that trump would likley be prosesecuted under NY state income tax laws. I would like to see trump prosecuted. trump is a negotiatior and his one chance to cut a deal is immediately after the NOv. 3 election if Cyrus Vance and AG Jaems are willing to cut such a deal

[FakeNoose]

45. Not only the State of NY, but also the City of Manhattan is after Chump

Cy Vance is the Attorney General for the City of Manhattan, and Letitia James is State Attorney General, so Gov. Andrew Cuomo is her boss. Both Vance and James have multiple cases going against Chump.

Then there's the IRS and the FBI that have been looking into the money-laundering abnormalities and other violations of the Chump Organization for quite some time.

None of this is related to his TREASON and MALFEASANCE of office, which should have gotten him impeached last year. But that's another story...

LOCK HIM UP!

[Gothmog]

46. Here is the tape of Carville

[davsand]

48. The orange anus has nothing to bargain with.

If he loses the election he's got nothing to offer the State of NY or the Manhattan prosecutor in a negotiation. I suppose he could maybe offer information and testimony in other cases, but even that is pretty shaky since his credibility is so seriously compromised. Honestly, I'd be dazzled if the prosecutors were able not to laugh at that kind of offer.




Laura

[Gothmog]

49. If Trump loses, he'll take this deal

When/if trump loses, he will cut a deal to avoid prison https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/opinions/if-trump-loses-lockhart/index.html

President Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to leave office peacefully if he loses the election. Instead he rails about voter fraud and a rigged election. His untruths and obstinacy are by now an old story, but they remain both dangerous to our democracy and maybe to our lives if the President continues on this path.

Many law enforcement and homeland security experts have raised the alarm about possible violence after a contested election. Nothing in the President's words or behavior suggests that he will be a calming force or will leave the White House without a fight, either in the courthouse or the streets. We all know, after four years of this, that it's a pretty good bet he will make a bad situation worse.

I share many of these worries. But I'm not expecting the worst. Not because Trump will have an attack of conscience -- I don't think he has a conscience. And not because he will put the country ahead of his own personal interests -- that fantasy is no longer even debatable.....

Here's where the survival instinct will kick in. What can Trump give prosecutors, creditors and potential investors to allow him to live his life freely and build the kind of media empire he so craves?

What he can give them is -- wait for it -- a peaceful transition of power. Freedom for peace.

To avoid violence in the streets, prosecutors of all stripes may decide it is in their -- and the country's -- interest to cut a deal. Trump may agree to go quietly to save his own skin. There is the basis of the win-win.