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Johnny2X2X

(18,731 posts)
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:11 AM Sep 2020

6 weeks out in 2016 vs 2020 538 polling averages

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

You have to look at 9/26/16 to be exactly 6 weeks out, Hillary was up +1.4 points nationally 42.4-41.0, but Gary Johnson was still polling at 7.5%, he would get 3% of the vote, so there's your hidden Trump support, the people who were polling for Johnson voted for Trump. Realistically, Trump might have actually been up 2-3 points 6 weeks out in 2016.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Biden is +6.8% right now, 50.4-43.6. There are no significant 3rd party candidates polling above 1% to provide hidden support for either candidate. Biden being above 50% is the coup de gras here, he will likely get a few points more than that on election day. Also, the impact of the Comey bombshell 11 days out was massive and cost her the election.

Yes, I know, it's all about the states! But I can assure you that Biden is polling better in virtually every swing state right now that Hillary was. Keep working! Donate! Go door to door! Phone bank! We are 6 weeks away from putting an end to our nation's nightmare!!!

There's a ton to be hopeful about!
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6 weeks out in 2016 vs 2020 538 polling averages (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Sep 2020 OP
In picture format Roland99 Sep 2020 #1
They got that all wrong Johnny2X2X Sep 2020 #2
that was my bad...fixed now Roland99 Sep 2020 #3
They're going to try and save the senate for themselves hook or crook. Its no longer about the ... uponit7771 Sep 2020 #4
2016 is a good starting point but there's issues... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #5
She never led by this much (6.8) Johnny2X2X Sep 2020 #6
This is not true. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #8
We are both wrong Johnny2X2X Sep 2020 #9
I was going off the popular vote projection. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #10
Got it. Johnny2X2X Sep 2020 #11
Hidden message here from dotard and why there won't be a push against mail in ballots Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #13
I think the polling indicated that Gary Johnson was taking more votes from Clinton than from Trump. StevieM Sep 2020 #14
So her best is his average qazplm135 Sep 2020 #18
What?! qazplm135 Sep 2020 #7
Exactly..debates little to sway voters. Linked are 2 articles, but all agree debates do not change Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #15
+1 n/t Tommymac Sep 2020 #17
RCP (Real Clear Politics) Electoral College standings....TOSS UP STATES Roland99 Sep 2020 #12
To break 270 - Biden needs FL/PA or WI/OH/PA Roland99 Sep 2020 #16
Here's how the states look Johnny2X2X Sep 2020 #19
This is a good comparison. And very heartening. scipan Sep 2020 #20

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
1. In picture format
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:16 AM
Sep 2020



#Election2020

538 polls 6 weeks out. 2016 vs 2020

2016 - Clinton up 1.4%
2020 - Biden up 6.8%

We all know electoral college matters so swing states have more say than overall national votes but this is a good sign.



(edit...updated tweet...had wrong image up top)

Johnny2X2X

(18,731 posts)
2. They got that all wrong
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:19 AM
Sep 2020

She was +3.9 on election day in 2016, not 6 weeks out. Follow the links I provided and check September 26th, 2016.

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
4. They're going to try and save the senate for themselves hook or crook. Its no longer about the ...
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:21 AM
Sep 2020

... presidency

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
5. 2016 is a good starting point but there's issues...
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:21 AM
Sep 2020

Hillary saw a huge surge of support at the end of September and beginning of October after the first debate and the release of the Access Hollywood tape. It was an artificial bump but it WAS lasting, as she never dipped back down to the level she was at this point four years ago.

My point on this is that we've got to prepare ourselves for the narrative that Biden is actually polling worse than Hillary because she took a decent lead nationally in October and kept it until JUST before the Comey letter dropped and then her numbers dropped to the point where they were roughly 2-3 points nationally.

Johnny2X2X

(18,731 posts)
6. She never led by this much (6.8)
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:23 AM
Sep 2020

And the Gary Johnson polling support was the cover for the "Hidden Trump voters". He was polling 3-4 points lower than he should have been because of Gary Johnson until the end.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
8. This is not true.
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:44 AM
Sep 2020

On 10/17, Hillary's lead, according to 538, was 49.8 to 42.7 - or 7.1 points.

I agree that Biden being above 50% is good news but the margins in 2016 got away from Trump through a chunk of October.

Johnny2X2X

(18,731 posts)
9. We are both wrong
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:50 AM
Sep 2020

From the link I provided, she was up 45.8-38.9 on that date, +6.9. But as I pointed out, Gary Johnson was still polling at 6.3% then, so Trump had 4% of his voters hiding as Johnson supporters.

Johnny2X2X

(18,731 posts)
11. Got it.
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 11:03 AM
Sep 2020

So Hillary was not doing near as well as Biden 6 weeks out, but the Access Hollywood tape release gave her a boost, and then the Comey revelation swung it to Trump.

Biden being so consistent with his lead is a big deal, as is him being up over 50%. He's poised for an easy win.

Trump is panicking, he was urging supporters to vote by mail in MI today as MI has already had 2.2 million absentee ballots requested and only 1 in 5 Republicans there say they're voting by mail, so he's potentially already down 1.7,million potential votes in MI.

Thekaspervote

(32,605 posts)
13. Hidden message here from dotard and why there won't be a push against mail in ballots
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 11:13 AM
Sep 2020

“Dotard panicking, urging supporters to vote by mail in MI.”

StevieM

(10,499 posts)
14. I think the polling indicated that Gary Johnson was taking more votes from Clinton than from Trump.
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 11:21 AM
Sep 2020

For the record, the same held true in 1992, where throughout the election Perot took more from Clinton than from Bush, and on Election Day he took from them equally. When the election was over, Bob Dole and the media saw to it that a myth was born.

I don't believe that there were hidden Trump voters. I think they were unashamed to admit they were voting for him. It was Clinton who was swift boated so badly that there were originally hidden Clinton voters. James Comey's affect on the race was unbelievably dramatic IMO.

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
7. What?!
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:39 AM
Sep 2020

Just no. Biden is not polling worse and there's no narrative that says that.

She never led by 7-8 points and certainly not consistently for months on end.

There's zero reason to believe the debates will cause Trump to gain much at all.

Short of a live boy or dead girl situation, this race is likely to be static all the way to the election.

A freaking pandemic hasn't moved the numbers by more than a point, why would literally anything else?

Thekaspervote

(32,605 posts)
15. Exactly..debates little to sway voters. Linked are 2 articles, but all agree debates do not change
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 11:21 AM
Sep 2020

vote outcomes

https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-presidential-debates-influence-voters/

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/do-tv-debates-sway-voters

Even if they did, polls numbers show there are very few undecideds, and even fewer willing to vote 3rd party

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
16. To break 270 - Biden needs FL/PA or WI/OH/PA
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 11:25 AM
Sep 2020

polling better in PA that FL right now which means focus on PA and the upper midwest would be enough to flip them back to Dem!

Johnny2X2X

(18,731 posts)
19. Here's how the states look
Tue Sep 22, 2020, 12:52 PM
Sep 2020

Wisconsin: up 3.5 points on Sept 26, 2016...up 6.4 points now

Michigan: up 2.9 points on Sept 26, 2016...up 7.5 points now

Pennsylvania: up 2.5 points on Sept 26, 2016...up 4.5 points now

Arizona: DOWN 4.9 points on Sept 26, 2016...up 4.5 points now

North Carolina: DOWN 1.6 points on Sept 26, 2016...up 1.2 points now

Florida: DOWN 1.0 points on Sept 26, 2016...up 2.0 points now

Texas (just for fun): DOWN 10.7 points on Sept 26, 2016...DOWN 0.8 points now

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