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Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:25 AM

Curious.....what were Hillary's poll numbers at this time in 2016?????

similar to Joeís? or way up, or way behind......I donít remember. I know I didnít feel like tRump was going to win, I went to bed knowing Hillary was going to win.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:32 AM

1. Similar to Joe's, but polls do not matter.

Turnout does. The turnout was low, in some places as low as 1996.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:46 AM

9. Not similar to Joes's ...his are higher and he is abouve 50%.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:33 AM

2. No but you could look it up. She never broke 50% ...and it has been posted here

before

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100214064016

Here is a Reuters poll around this time in 16

"The Sept. 16-22 opinion poll showed that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 37 percent supported Trump. Clinton has mostly led Trump in the poll during the 2016 campaign, though her advantage has narrowed since the end of the Democratic and Republican national conventions in July."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN11T2F4

Biden's numbers are much better. And no Comey in the wings.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:36 AM

3. RCP had HRC +1.6 at this point in 2016; They have Joe at +6.5

Plus, the 2016 polls were seriously flawed, in that they over sampled college educated voters. That has been corrected this year.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:39 AM

5. Thanks, exactly what I was hoping for......

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:38 AM

4. I think it's quite different

Far fewer undecideds now, and Joe has been very stable.

But the point remains, we do have GOTV and get the vote in.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:40 AM

6. Google it! nt

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:42 AM

7. Hillary never had numbers similar to Bidens especially at this point

not only nationally but in battle ground states

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:44 AM

8. Biden's are better. There are too many people who want to compare 2016 with today, and they

are NOT comparable for numerous reasons

A few of the reasons are the following:

Third party voting will NOT be a factor as in was in 2016
There is no Comey coming out 11 days before the election
Over 200,000 people have died because of trump
All indications in early voting are the turnout will be significant
The passing of RBG will be a huge motivating factor for women, minorities, and women to vote
Trump has approval has consistently polled below 50%, around 42 - 45%. Biden at or above 50%

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Response to still_one (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:48 AM

10. You're right of course, just anxious to have the election done with and it be a huge

blue crushing, I mean so huge that there is NO doubt the orange piece of shit lost.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #10)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:51 AM

11. We are all on the same page, and with the same anxious feelings

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Response to still_one (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 09:55 AM

12. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein

3rd party candidates were a huge factor on the results and were also why Clinton's lead was not real.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

On September 26th 2016 (You have to use the 26th because the election in 2016 was 5 days later than this year) Hillary was up 1.4 points, but Gary Johnson was still polling above 7 points when he would only get 3 on election day, those 4 points went to Trump almost exclusively. So Trump was very concretely leading at this time in 2016, perhaps by as much as 2 points.

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