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Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:33 AM

On the strength of new polling Joe ticks up to 77% at 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

10 replies, 626 views

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:41 AM

1. Given 538's model and how it accounts for time until election, even steady polls should raise Biden

One of the interviews Nate gave mentioned that his model includes time until election as a moderating measure. A 10% lead six weeks out raises win probability much less than the same six days out.

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Response to Amishman (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:46 AM

4. Yup. Basically, it's a republican/Trump bias that they put in

due to the fact that most presidential race tightens as it gets closer to election day. I think Nate said that if the model is only based on polling, Biden would have had 90% of winning while the chance at the time was around 70%.

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Response to Claustrum (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:53 AM

5. In this scenario it is a pro Trump bias, but more accurately it is a bias towards the losing side

The model would be behaving the same way if the polls were switched.

I'm a huge nerd and data geek, I have a very favorable view of Silver's methodology.

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Response to Amishman (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:58 AM

6. I like Silver's methodology and his reasonings toward the polling

He wasn't wrong in 2016. It is just that people took 70% chance of winning as if Hillary was a sure win. But it wasn't. If lottery has a 1-in-3 chance of winning, I would buy it in a heart beat. But real lottery chance is 1-in-a million.

When people believe that Trump had no chance lands more toward their emotion or their belief that Trump's actions and words are so bad that no one would vote for him. Of course, I would prefer to be on the 2-in-3 chance side, but that doesn't mean I would be winning for sure.

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Response to Amishman (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 10:17 AM

7. Thx for posting! Makes sense

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:41 AM

2. Thank you DSB...appreciate this...lifts my spirits.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:44 AM

3. North Carolina is not going to go for trump, but he may try to steal it.

He just doesn't have the votes here.

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Response to BComplex (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 10:18 AM

8. Are you in NC? Care to expand....give us some insight. Thx

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 10:29 AM

9. Yes, I'm in NC. No real "proof", but I can tell you that the GOTV is big here this time,

and when that happens, republicans lose. Plus, there are a few people in my very red area that are making noises like they're thinking Biden might not be so bad after all.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 07:17 AM

10. I love it...538 for Dummies! Sometimes I need more pictures than stats..

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