We have a 58% chance of gaining control of the senate

And I thought that I was more pessimistic than most.

On edit - Ah... but another 15% or so that it's 50/50... which would have the same effect if Biden wins.

Look what Obama got done with a completely blue congress...

I really want every republican running to suffer a soul crushing defeat.

There are more variables than in the presidential percentages so I guess that may account for it.

Seriously though.

I get suspicious when they come up with such exact percentages for something as subjective as peoples opinions (voting habits)

As humans we really have not mastered politics this precisely.

But it's still good odds I suppose.

but I'm sure there is a large confidence interval probably around +/- 10 points.

It's an old trick. Use an odd number to make it sound like it's very firm and precise.

But when in reality, it has a 20 point spread.

Elections are decided on 2% to 5%. A result with a 20 point variation is worse than next months weather forecast.

As I see it, we are very likely to win in AZ, CO, ME, and NC. Also likely to lose the AL race.

That puts us at 50 seats, plus with a very likely Biden win, it is control

I don't see Iowa or either Georgia race as likely. Trump will have rural turnout high and there are a lot of conservatives in those states. Soil conditions just a little too unfavorable to grow a Blue spruce.

MI race has tightened up recently, and I am not convinced the pollster's models are well tuned for that state after the 2016 surprise. Still think we are very strong favorites there, but not guaranteed.

and Lindsay Graham in a dead heat, e.g. 48 to 48. We just need to convince that 4%, and GOTV like their lives depend upon it.

Sure hope so...we need the senate for SCOTUS!!