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Tue Sep 15, 2020, 11:48 PM

Given their record of picking winners, one has to assume FL/OH are the whole ballgame once again

Forget national polls. Forget the models. Forget the fretting about a delay in counting mail-in ballots. If Joe Biden wins FL, its over before it begins. If he wins Ohio, it's over before it begins. If he wins both FL and OH, well let's just say hello to 400+ EVS. FL is the whole enchilada in my mind. It always is.

They were only wrong once, against JFK in 60. Incidentally, we lost both FL and OH that year but still won!!

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Reply Given their record of picking winners, one has to assume FL/OH are the whole ballgame once again (Original post)
NewsCenter28 Sep 15 OP
regnaD kciN Sep 16 #1
msongs Sep 16 #2
Buckeye_Democrat Sep 16 #3
NewsCenter28 Sep 16 #4
Buckeye_Democrat Sep 16 #6
Thekaspervote Sep 16 #13
Buckeye_Democrat Sep 16 #14
Thekaspervote Sep 16 #15
NewsCenter28 Sep 16 #5
JI7 Sep 16 #8
JI7 Sep 16 #7
NewsCenter28 Sep 16 #9
Buckeye_Democrat Sep 16 #10
Thekaspervote Sep 16 #12
Maru Kitteh Sep 16 #11
dawg day Sep 16 #16
pecosbob Sep 16 #17
dsc Sep 16 #18
Klaralven Sep 16 #19
Johnny2X2X Sep 16 #20
Drahthaardogs Sep 16 #21

Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:28 AM

1. God, I hope not...

...because, frankly, OH has been trending Republican over the past few decades, and is probably pretty close to deep-red status right now. As to FL -- well, we've seen what can happen there, and it's been a steady track record of narrow Democratic polling leads turning into narrow Republican electoral victories, and polling toss-ups turning into comfortable Republican electoral victories.

Put it this way: if we were offered the chance to just call off the election everywhere else, and give Biden the win if he won either, let along both, of those two states, I wouldn't take it. I mean, I'll be delighted if Biden can win FL, but I'm not really expecting it. As to OH...I consider that pretty much a lost cause, both in 2020 and for the foreseeable future.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:31 AM

2. did not obama win them both twice just a few yrs back? nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:34 AM

3. Yes, Ohio has picked the EC winner since 1964.

Florida is close, but voted against Clinton in 1992.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:40 AM

4. And narrowly I think

A point or so for GHWB.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:47 AM

6. Yes, it was close.

Ohio is more red and not needed for a Biden win, but I personally don't want to risk it by "writing it off".

The big Clinton loss in Ohio four years ago wasn't too surprising to me. I'm confident that she would have badly lost to McCain here in 2008 too. The Bill Clinton years coincided with some rough economic times here, and he unfairly got much of the blame.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:31 AM

13. I think 2020 is going to be the year that OH doesn't pick the EC winner...seriously

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #13)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:35 AM

14. You could easily be correct.

We'll see in a few weeks.

No skin off my nose as long as Biden wins the Presidency.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #14)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:22 AM

15. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

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Response to msongs (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:41 AM

5. He did convincingly both times yep!

Happy days!

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Response to msongs (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:50 AM

8. He won in 2008 during the recession . He won 2012 also but the state was going more right wing

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:49 AM

7. Nope, NOT Ohio . Arizona matters more than Ohio and maybe Florida this time around

In some ways I will be happy to win without Ohio because I feel like they have recieved wayyy too much attention and they have recently been voting for shitty people.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #7)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 01:00 AM

9. Yeah I agree

FL is decisive in my eyes but OH will be close even if we lose it in the end this time.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #7)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 01:03 AM

10. You're right, FL and AZ are both polling better.

NC too, barely.

With all of the current state polling, but with Trump somehow winning FL, AZ and WI (where Biden leads in polls) and NC and OH (where it's basically tied in polls)... then we're screwed.

I'd rather see Biden lose Ohio if it means that he wins the EC, of course!

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #10)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:30 AM

12. The likelihood of Biden losing all 3, pretty improbable

Iím not really thinking FL is in play, but maybe Bloombergís 100 mil dollar spend there will flip it. He seems to know exactly where to put his money for the best outcome.

Still skeptical about Az, despite some of the obvious.
1. A huge Mormon population in AZ- hates trump for his adulterous behavior. Very reliable voting block.
2. Mark Kellyís popularity there is palpable, helpful to Biden.
3. for the first time in decades, Phoenix has a Democratic Mayor, a woman to boot!
4. The McCains have huge influence there and have endorsed Biden

WI- Biden only has to do 1% better than HRC did there in 16 to win it. Bidenís poll #s there are much better than HRC, and in general better overall than hers in swing states and nationally

We really do need WI...MI and PA.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 01:07 AM

11. This is 2020. Not 20-something, not 19-anything, except covid.

The old rules were drowned in the same bathtub as decency, irony and a functioning democracy.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 04:36 AM

16. Vigo County, Indiana

polls close at 6 pm. They alas always almost choose the eventual winner.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 07:08 AM

17. Given their record of manipluating vote tallies, one has to assume FL/OH are going to cheat again.

There...fixed that for you.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 08:03 AM

18. Ohio is no longer a swing state

Biden is more likely to win all of the following than Ohio, AZ, NC, WI, PA. MI plus all the states Hillary won. I would even put FL in that bunch. Even in 2018 Ohio was a disappointment.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 08:30 AM

19. CO, MN, MI, NV, NH, WI, PA, AZ, FL, NC, OH, GA, IA, TX all matter.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 08:34 AM

20. Biden doesn't need either

They are going all in on FL though.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 09:16 AM

21. No. Things have changed out west

Itís not 2008 anymore

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