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Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:26 PM

Cook: Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected

But this is also why those who are convinced that he will make a spectacular comeback are likely to be wrong as well. His standing is impervious to events. The vast majority of voters decided a long time ago whether they liked him or not, whether they would approve of his actions, and whether they would support his candidacy. For many voters, this cake is baked.

As for those who keep coming back to the nostrum that he won four years ago, proved everyone wrong, and can do it again: They ignore that this time, he doesn’t have Hillary Clinton as an opponent. While Clinton is an incredibly bright and accomplished person, she accumulated an enormous amount of political baggage during her quarter century on the national stage. Until the #MeToo movement arrived, her husband went through his career as if he had a Teflon coating—nothing stuck to him. But Hillary was Velcro; seemingly everything stuck to her.

Comparing how Hillary Clinton was perceived in the 2016 campaign with Biden now defies logic. The CNN poll taken at the beginning of September 2016 showed Clinton with 41 percent of registered voters giving her a favorable rating and 57 percent giving her an unfavorable rating, for a net favorability of -16 percent. Trump showed a 42-percent-favorable, 56-percent-unfavorable split, for a -14 net rating. The new CNN poll gives Biden a 48-percent-favorable, 43-percent-unfavorable rating for a net of plus-5 points. Trump’s current numbers are 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable—a net -16 points.

Obviously, we are talking about anticipating human behavior, which is always problematic. But given that voting has already begun in some states, Trump does not even have 54 days to make a comeback. Similarly, an October Surprise may need to happen in mid-September for it to have any impact. It is a good bet that a lot of votes will be cast before that first debate on Sept. 29.

I understand the caution that many in my business have after the surprising outcome in 2016, but the only way this year resembles 2020 is that they both are presidential years, Trump is the Republican nominee, and both years begin with a 2. That’s it. Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-ceiling-too-low-him-be-reelected

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Reply Cook: Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected (Original post)
RandySF Sep 15 OP
a kennedy Sep 15 #1
malaise Sep 15 #4
bhikkhu Sep 15 #29
Demovictory9 Sep 16 #34
machoneman Sep 17 #37
Thekaspervote Sep 15 #2
elleng Sep 15 #3
still_one Sep 15 #5
Yavin4 Sep 15 #8
still_one Sep 15 #10
FakeNoose Sep 15 #6
Poiuyt Sep 16 #31
Yavin4 Sep 15 #7
Wanderlust988 Sep 15 #9
BannonsLiver Sep 15 #11
betsuni Sep 15 #12
Blue Owl Sep 15 #13
abqtommy Sep 15 #14
BigmanPigman Sep 15 #26
yortsed snacilbuper Sep 15 #15
Martin Eden Sep 15 #16
radius777 Sep 15 #18
Celerity Sep 15 #19
Shoonra Sep 15 #17
TheDemsshouldhireme Sep 15 #20
Quixote1818 Sep 15 #21
BootinUp Sep 15 #22
Quixote1818 Sep 15 #23
honest.abe Sep 17 #39
Cha Sep 15 #24
Beartracks Sep 15 #25
NNadir Sep 15 #27
TallMike Sep 15 #28
OverBurn Sep 16 #33
summer_in_TX Sep 16 #30
struggle4progress Sep 16 #32
BadgerMom Sep 16 #35
oasis Sep 17 #36
machoneman Sep 17 #38
bullwinkle428 Sep 17 #40
honest.abe Sep 17 #41

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:30 PM

1. Yesssssssss, I want the biggest crushing in election history......

A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:37 PM

4. THIS

I am to hear the collective screams across the planet
You're fucking fired!

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 11:43 PM

29. At this point, if the earth were to open and swallow up the whole festering lot...

I'd go on about my day. "It is what it is".

Of course that won't happen, but I'd be happy (and also somewhat more realistic about human nature) if people had to hide the crazy again, if it weren't ok to hate in public, and if all that hatred and crazy shit were no longer a part of our civil government.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 04:55 PM

34. a lopsided result just might convince his base to reexamine the "facts" that they get from Faux nooz

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 17, 2020, 08:13 AM

37. Yep! I predict: a 16 million vote margin for Biden, 390 electoral votes. We win!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:34 PM

2. Makes a lot of sense!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:35 PM

3. 'irrational caution.'

that tends to be me.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:37 PM

5. I like Charlie Cook's analysis of the political landscape

I find it interesting when Wall Street analysts, especially from JP Morgan push that “don’t be surprised if trump wins”, as tough they have some magical insight that no one else has


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Response to still_one (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:44 PM

8. If they have some data or some sort of analysis to back up their call, show it.

Collect your data. Process it. Make your analysis. Show your work.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:49 PM

10. They don't. The JP Morgan jackass I was referring to was basing it on HIS observation of the

protests, and internet betting sites


Pure garbage analysis

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:42 PM

6. The debates won't matter a bit - everyone has already decided



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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 01:21 AM

31. Great GIF!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:42 PM

7. Finally! A pollster who uses the data to make a statement.

Everyone else is hedging like mad because they're too afraid of being wrong on election night which makes their analysis worthless.

The weatherman whose forecast always calls for a 50% chance of rain is a terrible weatherman.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:48 PM

9. Charlie Cook is a straight shooter

and has never come across with any biases. He's very careful too in his analyses and predictions. I agree with him that Trump's numbers are way too low to win without a third party candidate. Biden is close to, at, or over 50% in nearly every good poll I've seen. All Biden has to do is win 2-3% of the undecided vote and he'll get Obama's numbers in 2008 or more. This isn't nuclear science.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:53 PM

11. Big fan of Charlie Cook

Anyone who has followed his career knows that he’s not prone to hyperbole.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:54 PM

12. K&R

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 09:57 PM

13. To put it mildly...

n/t

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:03 PM

14. The fact that tRUMP lost the election in 2016, relying mainly on ratfucking, means that he can't

be re-elected. If he ever wins a fair and secure election it'll be the first time.

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Response to abqtommy (Reply #14)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 11:13 PM

26. He still has a lot in place from 2016

and now he is paying trolls in the US (teens even), Putin has gotten better at sowing division, questions in election interference by the GOP and USPS, Fakebook spreading BS more than ever, etc. Americans are still as gullible/clueless as 2016 if not more so. I hope for the best and prepare for the worse.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:05 PM

15. An October Surprise may need to happen in mid-September for it to have any impact.

Sounds good to me.

Al

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:21 PM

16. What about the other factors at play in 2020?

As in voter suppression, sabotage of the Postal Service, and other forms of cheating.

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Response to Martin Eden (Reply #16)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:32 PM

18. Agree, this is the issue not factored by pundits

who are looking it from 2 dimensional view, based only on numbers.

It's why we have to play the game as if it's tied and not rest on any lead we may (or may not) have.

We can't give up on trying to improve our message, reach out to all groups (such as Latinos and young people) who may not be as strongly behind us as we would like.

Because Trump/Barr/Russians/etc will do anything to retain power... anything.

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Response to Martin Eden (Reply #16)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:35 PM

19. Yep, this is why Cook's (and others) happy days act is problematic at best

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:29 PM

17. Don't become overconfident

The only poll that really matters is on November 3rd and Trump might still pull a rabbit out of the hat.

On Nov. 3, go and vote even if you have ro crawl through broken glass!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:38 PM

20. Political junkie here

and a PA resident in deep red part. Two things give me hope, looking at 2016 3rd party candidates got 200k votes in PA in 16, dont see that happening this year, hard to see Biden not got more of those votes than Trump. Also seeing more Biden signs by the day.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:39 PM

21. I have suspected this for a long time. He never gets above 43% even when things are going well. nt

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:51 PM

22. very good analysis, agree with it for the most part. But

Hillary wasn't as bad of a candidate as he paints. The truth is that glass ceiling in this country is pretty damn thick. Lots of thick heads around too.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:52 PM

23. What is his ceiling in PA, WI, MI, AZ, FL etc. ? That is where it counts A LOT. nt

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #23)

Thu Sep 17, 2020, 09:16 AM

39. Good point..

but I think what Cook is saying is if Trump cant get break out of the low 40's nationally then he simply can't win enough states to win the election. Of course this election is very different from any other so I suppose its possible for Trump to win by a hair in those few key states and get slaughtered in the other blue states which could result in losing the popular vote by a large (> 5%) percent. Not likely but possible.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 10:59 PM

24. That's where the ceiling should be & into

the gutter.. slowly slowly Slowly.. until election day. Boom

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 11:08 PM

25. NO COMPLACENCY!!! VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!

Sorry, just needed to be said.





=======

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 11:19 PM

27. I still won't feel safe until he and Barr are rotting in prison. I'd love it if we turned him...

...over to the Hague.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 11:22 PM

28. Best of luck

As a hair on fire lib-tard in a very, very red part of California, All I see is Trump this and Trump that. Antifa are collectively organizing and starting the fires. And OMG, the gooks, chinks, flips, women, gays, horse rustlers, claim jumpers and, wait for it... THE NIGGERS!
Never underestimate the power of sheer ignorance my friends.
Never...

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Response to TallMike (Reply #28)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 04:48 PM

33. Yes, sheer ignorance, that's why I'm still very worried.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 12:10 AM

30. Wonder how many Republicans (in comparison to Dems) who lie on polls?

A Republican friend (well longtime friendly acquaintance) in my small town was on the local community radio station talking to Matthew Dowd, a pollster who once worked for George W. Bush and is a regular on ABC with George Stephanopoulos. He lives here and about once a week unless he's away he spends an hour talking about this and that including the political situation.

The Republican (retired military brass) who has a weekly breakfast group they call the "Deplorables" that meets at a local café, mentioned how much he enjoys lying to pollsters. Blew Matthew Dowd's mind.

That's the situation I worry about. Those who actively distort the polling. I don't know (but have my suspicions) that is more likely done by Republicans than Dems.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 04:50 AM

32. They will try every dirty trick they know

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 11:55 PM

35. K & R

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Thu Sep 17, 2020, 12:44 AM

36. The Incredible Shrinking President.

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Response to oasis (Reply #36)

Thu Sep 17, 2020, 08:15 AM

38. That's what Stormy said: shrinking and mushroom-shaped! LOL

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Thu Sep 17, 2020, 09:25 AM

40. Charlie Cook guaranteed victory for Hillary on Oct. 14, 2016.

One of the most respected election handicappers in the country says the presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is now “over,” with victory assured for Clinton, the Democratic nominee.

“Take a close look at the new Fox News poll,” tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.

“This race is OVER.”


https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301082-respected-election-handicapper-calls-election-for-hillary

The moral of the story : PLEASE DON'T TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED!!

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Response to bullwinkle428 (Reply #40)

Thu Sep 17, 2020, 09:27 AM

41. It would have been except for the Comey memo.

Still makes me ill thinking about it.

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