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Sat Sep 5, 2020, 04:50 PM

Talk about wanting a damn horse race......CNN's electoral map.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/05/politics/electoral-college-maps-analysis/index.html

Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. It's been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote.

Chances are that whoever wins the presidency will have a more comfortable margin than winning by the skin of their teeth. Still, there are a number of different maps where either President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidency with just 270 electoral votes, or where the two of them each get 269 electoral votes.
Below are just some of the realistic scenarios where Biden or Trump ends up at either 270 or 269 electoral votes. There are more, but this gives you insight into how it could happen.

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Reply Talk about wanting a damn horse race......CNN's electoral map. (Original post)
a kennedy Sep 5 OP
DSandra Sep 5 #1
Sherman A1 Sep 5 #9
LeftInTX Sep 5 #2
a kennedy Sep 5 #4
a kennedy Sep 5 #5
wryter2000 Sep 5 #3
jimfields33 Sep 5 #8
LW1977 Sep 5 #6
helpisontheway Sep 5 #7
gulliver Sep 5 #10
PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 5 #11
jorgevlorgan Sep 5 #12
Poiuyt Sep 5 #13

Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 04:52 PM

1. Profit Motive

Isn’t capitalism great?

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Response to DSandra (Reply #1)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 05:27 PM

9. Yup

Filling airtime between commercials.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 04:53 PM

2. Dead link

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #2)


Response to LeftInTX (Reply #2)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 04:59 PM

5. It is working now......

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 04:55 PM

3. Color me stupid

I'll check this out, but realistically, is Biden going to lose any states Hillary won? It's clear he's going to win some states Trump won. I don't see how Biden loses.

Okay, I guess I'm stupid, but it's hard to compare 2020 to 2016 without having the 2016 final map in front of me.

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Response to wryter2000 (Reply #3)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 05:24 PM

8. That map seems absurd

Michigan red again? Hardly. New Hampshire? Red? I think they believe with colleges on line, students will vote from home and not their college. Wisconsin? Really doubtful.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 04:59 PM

6. 278 to win this is already doing it.

It hasn’t changed and the in over a month!

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 05:02 PM

7. Earlier they had a lead article about how Biden's lead was really not big..

Something like that. I did not click on it. That is what they want..

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 05:41 PM

10. Two horses (and a third spoiler). It's a horse race.

We lose if every single voter on our side doesn't show up without fail.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 06:01 PM

11. I do get tired of these nonsense predictions every four years.

The same with the equally nonsense predictions at the start of primary season that we'll have a brokered convention.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 06:08 PM

12. I think there is like, a 1/500 chance of a tie according to 538.

Unless that changed and it came down to no chance again. Right now, Biden is likely to win Omaha, maybe the whole state of Maine. The fact he is likely to win NE2 implies there likely won't be a tie, as that would be the decisive vote.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 06:16 PM

13. I like to follow non-partisan analysts like Charlie Cook

The Cook Political Report always give unvarnished opinions:

Many Are Afraid To Say It, but This Is Not a Close Race

As Joe Biden was preparing to give his presidential nomination acceptance speech Thursday night, for me like so many others it was a time to reflect on where the race stands. I was thinking about the the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” which many have cited in writings and cartoons criticizing President Trump. Each has put a slightly different contemporary spin on the 1837 story, in which a pair of swindlers convince a vain king that they could weave fabulous clothes for him with a magic fabric that could not be seen by anyone who was stupid or incompetent. The king commissioned the faux-tailors to make him a suit of clothes, checking on their work, watching the pair at their looms as they pretended to weave, not letting on that he could not see the fabric, lest people think him a fool. Once presented with the “clothes,” he strutted through the streets wearing nothing, no one letting on that they, too, could not see the clothes. Finally, a young boy cries out, “But he has nothing on!”

I think about the story in the context of this election, but not in a way that compares Trump to the king. Rather, I think about it in terms of the political analysts, pollsters, and pundits who refuse to state publicly what the data plainly show: that it is very, very unlikely Trump will win 270 electoral votes and the election.

-snip-

Trump was the candidate of change in 2016. Now, Americans are very unhappy with where the country is and how he has handled his tenure. How does an incumbent prevail in the face of this? I just don’t see how the reasons why Trump was underestimated then still apply now. This shoe is on a different foot. So I am going to be like the kid saying that the emperor has no clothes.

A focused and disciplined incumbent president could climb out of this hole. But not one who too often seems to be his own worst enemy.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

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