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Fri Sep 4, 2020, 10:32 PM

I don't understand betting but, might I be on to something....

... in guessing that deep pocket Trump supporters are pouring money into the betting markets?

Why do gamblers think Donald Trump has such a good chance of winning?

(CNN)In the wake of the two national party conventions, a slew of national polling has been conducted that suggests the 2020 race hasn't changed all that much. Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a high-single digit lead over President Donald Trump, with voters still very concerned about the coronavirus pandemic -- and less than thrilled about how Trump has performed on that front. (I wrote about all of that here.)

Yet, one thing has changed A LOT over the past month: How betting markets see the race. According to Real Clear Politics' aggregation of the odds being set by various markets, Biden went from a 61% chance of winning August 4 to a 50.5% chance on September 4. Which, if you look at the other available data in the race, doesn't make a ton of sense!


https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/politics/betting-markets-trump-biden-bovada-betfair/index.html

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Reply I don't understand betting but, might I be on to something.... (Original post)
LAS14 Sep 2020 OP
KLRIQ2 Sep 2020 #1
regnaD kciN Sep 2020 #2

Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 10:40 PM

1. Much like fines for illegal corporations, manipulating the impressions....

Of these markets, is just the cost of doing business.

Its disconnected from reality, just like the stock market, polls and other processes and other formerly predictive indicators.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 10:42 PM

2. I'm a bit surprised Biden had a lead at all...

...even at the end of the primary season, RCP’s survey of the betting markets showed Trump way ahead.

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