?????? Orange piece of shit is raising up in the polls??? 538's newest poll.

[a kennedy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo. What the hell???

[ogsball]

1. Convention Bump?

I would assume that this is the bump that typically comes after the RNC convention. I watched the Lincoln Project live stream today they are cautious but still confident in Biden's position.

[RiverbendsJoe]

2. His supporters crave white supremacy,

and Trump gives them steady doses of it every hour on the hour. Trump may undermine every other point of stability in their lives, but as long as he keeps feeding them white nationalism, he’ll probably keep rising in the polls.

[Jarqui]

3. I saw some eyebrow raising polls I do not believe from Emerson

The GOP have pollsters like Rasmussen and other right leaners trying to keep the polls closer.
There are Democrat leaning polls too but it does not seem nearly as bad or extreme.
If they're going to steal the election, they have to do stuff like this to muddy up the results.

[Locutusofborg]

4. Trump's favorability & perceptions of COVID-19 response stagnate...

post-convention: POLL
Trump's favorability didn't improve, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-favorability-perceptions-covid-19-response-stagnate-post/story?id=72705268

Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times poll — and more troops say they’ll vote for Biden
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

THE USC DORNSIFE ELECTION "DAYBREAK" POLL
Biden: 52.91%
Trump: 40.55%
https://election.usc.edu/

Poll: Biden retains 9 point lead in new poll taken during Republican convention
Biden: 47%
Trump: 38%
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514394-poll-bidens-9-point-lead-holds-in-new-partial-post-convention

[Frasier Balzov]

5. Nixon 1968

I remember how widespread civil unrest drew the electorate to the "law and order" candidate.

[regnaD kciN]

9. The "widespread civil unrest" now is nothing compared to what was going on then...

...and, besides, while Nixon ran on "law and order" as part of his agenda, he wasn't the real "law and order" candidate in that race -- that was George Wallace running as a third-party candidate (the most successful in decades; he actually won several southern states outright).

[NYC Liberal]

11. Also, Nixon was the challenger. The riots hurt the incumbent because they were in charge.

[MichMan]

12. LBJ was the incumbent and decided not to run

[NYC Liberal]

21. The incumbent party. Humphrey was LBJ's VP.

[regnaD kciN]

6. Look at the polls they list...

This change is based pretty much 100% on the Emerson poll from today, which seems pretty dodgy on various bases. (Notice that they balance it so Emerson is worth almost 1 1/2 times the other polls combined -- also, that they don't include, or even list, the ABC/Ipsos poll that showed Trump's approval dropping, and Biden's rising, through the RNC.)

[Thekaspervote]

14. Up until recently our so called friends over at 538 had the Emerson poll rated at C-

Having done nothing to change their marginal polling techniques, 538 suddenly gives them an A-

Look what 538 did in the primaries...what a sham

[question everything]

7. He succeeds in changing the debate from Covid to riots

[doc03]

8. I don't see anything to freak out about, they always tighten up close to the election. The Economist

has Biden getting 340 EV.

[still_one]

10. Approval numbers are bullshit. Give me actual polls who someone will vote for, especially

battleground state polls

Even there the polls are all over the fucking place


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[Thekaspervote]

13. Stop paying attention to 538..they are no longer doing non biased polling

Link to tweet

?s=21

[jorgevlorgan]

16. Their model creates averages weighting the polls that come in

Based on their bias. 538 is one of the least biased places you can look where poll averages are concerned. That being said, Biden is still ahead by 7 points. Thats still a pretty good place to be 3 months before the election, and still at around 50% support. He is in a much better place than Hillary was at this point. And all things considered I would much rather be in bidens position right now, than trump's.

[Thekaspervote]

17. No 538 is not doing non biased polling

increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor, at some very basic level, Silver does not actually know what a poll is. He is not alone in this; a fair portion of the country’s political punditry and opinion-making class is equally misinformed. In their conception, polls of opinion and sentiment represent not a snapshot of the present as informed by the past, but rather a hazy but prescient view into the future; not a measurement, but a prediction. “[Y]ou can actually write down what will happen in the future, with as much confidence as you write down the history of the past. Because it’s science!” This is why so much media discourse around polling emphasizes a framework that paints polls of present attitudes as a form of absolute constraint on where sentiment will go.


https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

Silver is still trying to recover from his botched dem primary polls when it was statistically shown that sanders vote share had dropped by 25% from 16 and their was no youth vote. All this after just 2 caucus nights silver declared Biden was done for, but just wasn’t willing to accept it

The Emerson poll until recently had a c- rating on 538, but suddenly and without any reason gave them an A- rating, despite Emerson having done nothing to improve their methodology

[still_one]

19. What I am seeing in places like 538 this time. that I don't think was that prevalent in 2016

is there are quite a lot C rated pollster included in these averages

However, I do agree on your assessment that this is not 2016

I don't believe that trump can move significantly outside of his base

The Democrats on the other hand do not have that liability. It is pretty clear that the majority who voted 3rd party or didn't vote in 2016 will be voting for Biden/Harris

I am not sure that is being factored in some of the pollsters models, especially when they are determining "likely voters"

Without a doubt Biden and Harris have to be aggressively getting out there everyday, and the Democratic party must get people registered to vote, and encourage them to vote early, and by mail if possible, and with that in place, I think the odds favor us

[Polybius]

15. It's become rare that an incumbent loses

Last time was 1992. We had three consecutive 8 year terms on a row (Clinton, Bush, Obama). The odds were bound to tighten.

[Thekaspervote]

18. See post #13

[Locutusofborg]

24. Post 13 doesn't appear to understand

that fivethirtyeight.com doesn't do ANY polling. 538 reports the results of literally hundreds of national and state polls. 538 also compares polling organizations' data to the actual outcomes of elections and it assigns a letter grade to polling organizations based on their accuracy.
But just because a poll earned an "A" in past elections doesn't mean it will be accurate in 2020.
538 only excludes push polls that are run by less than reputable organizations.

[still_one]

20. Trump will not be able to move outside of his base significantly. The Democrats on the other hand

are able to move beyond there base. In 2016, those that voted third party, or didn't vote, most in that group will be voting for Biden/Harris, and that means the odds favor us.

Of course Biden/Harris have to be out there going to various states pounding on trump, and their message, and there has to be a major effort to get people registered to vote, and getting out the vote by encouraging people to vote early, and by mail if possible

[highplainsdem]

22. The Emerson poll skewing that was half landlines and half an online panel, no cell phones.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions

The August National Emerson College poll was conducted August 30-31, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=1567, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/-2.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=770) and an online panel provided by MTurk (n=797).

[budkin]

25. Search DU for the Emerson poll thread from today

It’s total bullshit.

[greyl]

26. Talk with one of your neighbors today. nt