General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBiden is tanking in the betting markets.
It's clear the bettors feel the protests will favor Trump because Biden is at his lowest point since he took the favorite position against Trump in May.
According to Predictit.org, Biden is at 54% to win, Trump at 47%. Just last week, coming out of the Democratic Convention, Biden was 60% and Trump 39%.
Obviously this is based on speculation as we haven't seen many polls to suggest a real tightening of the race but it's clear the bettors think the next batch of polls are going to favor Trump as Biden keeps falling (down six points in less than a week). Of course, if the next batch of polls still show Biden up by a comfortable margin, I expect these results to change...but at the moment, it seems those betting do not expect that will happen.
bigtree
(85,986 posts)Last edited Sun Aug 30, 2020, 09:09 AM - Edit history (1)
...there's always an uptick in some polls on some characteristics which favor convention holders.
It's nonsense to post this like bettors markets tell us anything substantive or determinant about the state of the race.
Link to tweet
Amishman
(5,554 posts)Into general election on the Trump side.
So you get the normal convention bounce plus a money surge from those alrey betting on Trump getting paid.
Judi Lynn
(160,515 posts)bigtree
(85,986 posts)...the other some bull about 'biden riots'
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)No...betting is pointless. GOTV
RDANGELO
(3,433 posts)blogslut
(37,997 posts)Also, from that site, at this moment, Biden is at 55%
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)It's like dropping from a 2.5/3 point favorite in a football game to 1/1.5.
Yes, you would prefer to be the higher chalk but no big deal.
The mistake is believing that 60/40 is high. That is 3/2, or -150 money line. An NFL favorite of -3 always has a money line in the -155 to -165 range. So you can see that is somewhat above -150, and the reason I used the 2.5/3 split as estimate.
The betting markets are wisdom of the crowd at given point in time. Chris Bowers on MyDD used to rant against them all the time circa 2006 as non-predictive. Fortunately there were a couple of other guys on that site besides myself who had math backgrounds along with speculative backgrounds. Those series of posts from 3 or 4 of us were the best I've seen on the topic, especially on a political forum. Those posts shut Bowers up in a hurry and enabled him to see that he had no idea what he was talking about.
While the betting markets are anything but perfect they are far superior to conventional wisdom on partisan sites where no money is actually risked. TruthIsAll was furious throughout 2004 when I told him repeatedly that his Kerry 99% assertion was easily tested. I provided the links where he could take his 99% and receive +150 odds. Predictably he had one weak excuse after another.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)And didn't an offshore oddsmaker pay out Clinton bets weeks in advance because they believed her victory was a foregone conclusion.
Betting markets can be irrational. They made an MMA fighter -400 against one of the all time great pound for pound fighters in a boxing match. In a rational market he would have been -4000.
I have a simple two variable model which I borrowed from Allan Abramowitz. Trump's percentage of the vote is the dependent variable and the independent variables are his approval rating on election day and his approval rating for his handling of the CoronaVirus.
triron
(21,994 posts)The vote tallies were changed by Russian hackers. I know you don't believe this so
need to keep insisting it didn't happen.
What credible information can you share that would support such a claim?
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)McGregor had unique striking angles for a boxer which was a challenge for Mayweather but he executed his game plan perfectly tiring him out early and finishing him off late based on the idea MMA fights aren't as long as boxing matches but he was an alright opponent for Mayweather.
radius777
(3,635 posts)Some of which is based on hard data, other is based on worldview. White guys overwhelmingly hold an anti-Dem (or Dem paranoia) worldview which is reflected in the markets.
In 2016 Hillary was up to 86 cents on the day before election day. White guys have deep fear of Hillary and always think she can magically be president at any moment. Many still think she will be 'inserted' as president if Biden wins.
This year, Susan Rice was up to 65 cents on the day Harris was chosen. Rice has long been feared by white guys as 'another Hillary'.
The riots are not having the impact white guys think it will. Most voters outside of white guy world know Trump is divisive and destructive, and are not going to blame the calm/steady Biden - he's not the president, Trump is.
Tiger8
(432 posts)Polls can never show that Trump and his cult followers have a broader arsenal of tools available to him in the fight toward the White House.
Trump desecrating the WH during the RNC convention is one example - and showed us he will do things we cannot even imagine.
MacKasey
(986 posts)R B Garr
(16,950 posts)which he just calls rioting and then uses whatever visuals handy to exacerbate.
I didnt watch the convention much, but that seemed to be the major focus coming from the highlights. Obviously they see a winning issue and are running with it.
shrike3
(3,561 posts)in betting markers. One Duer said he/she had visited a right-wing site and that its member were pouring cash into a Trump bet. One part of it?
NCDem47
(2,248 posts)All fakery and facade to prop up their house.
shrike3
(3,561 posts)Thought it could be a factor.
LW1977
(1,233 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)Haul this trash post to the dump.
marlakay
(11,446 posts)Polls show Trump leading, is that true?
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)marlakay
(11,446 posts)I know he wants to help but with covid its not helping at all, enough fear around.
radius777
(3,635 posts)The leads have been pretty consistent out there. They are states that have enough 'Dem base voters' (PoC, suburban women, etc) to overwhelm the conservative vote.
MN and WI are worrisome, which Biden can lose, but he can easily make it up by winning AZ and especially FL (consistent leads there).
PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,490 posts)youre ignorant to whats happening and ill-informed. The Defund The Police stupidity gave Trump the opening he needed to exploit white fear. We have no news outlets at our disposal to counter the narrative. That was the stupidest thing ever.
The race is tightening and Dems better figure this out quick or the USA as weve known will only be known in the history books.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)"Defund the police" actually isn't anything new. BLM activists have called for it for years but the national media didn't pay attention until the George Floyd killing. It looks like some here prefer to continue ignoring their concerns.
In any case Biden is leading the polls and even that PredictIt site so if Biden loses it will be his own fucking fault unless there is rigging and voter suppression which is likely.
lark
(23,083 posts)He's probably also funding the supposed antifa asses, just like he was funding all their FB sites.
Apollo Zeus
(251 posts)when Hillary was 6 to 1 and not even in the race.
Pari-mutual betting odds (more accurately: payouts) are determined by how much money is bet on each option. It isn't tied to polling. Generally the bookies don't set the odds -- the bettors do and they will shift all the way to the end. Betting pools are imperfect, as is polling, but they do let you see the confidence levels. Opinions are free, bets aren't so the thinking goes that bets are a more solid indicator.
I'm a media strategist and often have to tell clients things they don't want to hear. For example "Your ads are underperforming the competitions' and should be refreshed." Trying to discuss what Dems are doing right and wrong message-wise in highly partisan environments often goes nowhere productive but, what the heck...
There are two main categories of messaging in marketing: brand and offer. A brand message is general, "Coke is the real thing" while an offer message asks you to buy now, "$2 off on cases of Coke this week."
The Dems are running a brand campaign -- 'Dump Trump', and "Ridin' with Biden." The GOP does brand messaging ("MAGA" but also adds more offer-focused messaging, "Build that wall!"
If the DNC was my client I would strongly urge them to add offer to their brand campaign. Brand without offer is much less effective in closing the deal. The attacks on Trump have swayed some people but repeating them now is not likely to sway new people. Messaging around M4A, jobs, and other specific voter concerns would be more effective but with their slight lead in the polls Dems are unlikely change anything.
Meanwhile the Trump campaign is in "say anything, try anything" mode so the risk is that the GOP finds messaging that works and chews away Biden's lead.
jcgoldie
(11,627 posts)...if your argument here is that the Republican message has been more issue specific then I think thats completely false. Democrats spent 4 days last week focusing on issues like immigration and climate change and health care... Trump by contrast has been completely unable to name a single issue he would focus on if re-elected and the GOP spent their time almost exclusively trying to scare us all about the impending chaos of "Biden's America".
Apollo Zeus
(251 posts)When we think about people who pay little attention to daily political battles, we need soundbites to reach them. Specific, deal-closing offers.
Talking generally about issues is the start of a conversation. Offering specific solutions is the close, eg "Medicare for All".
grantcart
(53,061 posts)You approach the subject as if the consumer was deciding between brands I.e. Coke versus Pepsi.
There is overwhelming evidence that this is not a "persuasion" election that there are vast numbers of people who not only don't already have a preference but a deeply held preference.
Factoring "shy" voters who ate concealing their choice from pollsters, estimated at 10% for Trump 5% for Biden, and the fact that "dislike both" voters are going overwhelmingly for Biden there are very very few "undecided" voters.
This is a "turnout" election. Voters have already decided if they are buying Pepsi or Coke it's just a question of whether or not they go to the store that day and make a purchase.
Apollo Zeus
(251 posts)I agree with everything you wrote but many voters don't want Coke OR Pepsi so you throw something else into the deal, like (to belabor the analogy...) a coupon for 50% on healthcare when you buy Pepsi.
cally
(21,593 posts)Dems just dont message with the sound bytes and it hurts them. I keep remembering the elephant book (dont remember title nor author) on messaging. What 3 or 4 phrase message would you recommend?
misanthrope
(7,411 posts)"Save Social Security"
"Save our seniors"
"Make America healthy again"
"America should work for everyone"
"Unite America"
"Hatred is unAmerican"
"End the division"
More specificity?
radius777
(3,635 posts)Our two Dem presidents (Clinton, Obama) directly confronted this, which is imo a main reason they won.
The GOP creates the very division/destruction they then present themselves as the solution to.
Biden/Harris need to attack Trump directly for creating racial/social chaos, and for bungling the covid response leading to the bodybags piling up. Be graphic and direct.
At the same time they must present themselves with an FDR-like optimism of pulling the country out of this mess. They can't get too caught in the weeds in policy as people get confused. They need a bullet point message. 'Build Back Better' is ok, but I'm not sure it's catchy enough.
obamanut2012
(26,064 posts)And, I went with my gut and knowledge that Rousey is a one-trick pony and Holm is one of the best counter strikers in the entire combat sports biz, and made a huge amount of money. HUGE.
Betting lines are tied to NOTHING but what horse or team or person a gambler wants to bet one. They have no reality to polls, none.
I know you are a sports fan and know this, so why does your OP make it seem like you don't?
highplainsdem
(48,959 posts)markets were wrong.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Biden's tanking in the primary proves this - it also is apples to oranges as the primary had multiple weeks of individual elections that swiftly changed narratives. Biden did surge to the top after Super Tuesday.
They're just snapshots of expectations. I think they're important because it can give you insight into where the race is heading.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)The PredictIt website saw Biden's win coming when the polls shifted. I actually knew who was going to win each primary before the primary based on polls & PredictIt.
sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)demmiblue
(36,838 posts)hunter
(38,309 posts)Not to mention the hot Russian women they were promised.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)budkin
(6,699 posts)Its probably closer to what the actual race is considering everything Trump is trying to do to rig the election.
moonscape
(4,673 posts)WonderGrunion
(2,995 posts)They expect him to gain a post convention bump. So bettors are shifting money to him in anticipation of a quick sell off after the convention bounce. They still think Biden is winning.
foxtruth
(12 posts)Answer back to Fox News
You can go to the belly of the beast and post your thoughts or give your thumbs up to posts you like!!
Tell your friends!! Please forward this information as much as you can! Thanks!
Its fun..its entertaining..its effective and satisfying.
For about a month now, I have been writing comments about the various news stories on the Fox News website. Sometimes I will have up to 8 different fox news stories open on my screen and reply to each with different counterpoints, often a number of them on the same story over the course of an hour or two. Its actually rather fun and satisfying .being able to get your say in with these people.
This way, I can post dozens of attention getting posts that the fox followers will read, often with interesting feedback from them, as you can well imagine. Surprisingly, there are a substantial number of us Democratic types that post on there, or that rate the comments. (Ive had up to 12 likes for a post). In actuality though, the foxers outnumber the normals as you would expect.
Let us better the ratio!
Our side needs more troops over there to help educate the foxes, the stoats and the weasels about the truth.
Over time, Ive had to occasionally delete my account and change usernames when Fox catches on, or someone complains. I think this has happened when I post too much too quickly, perhaps and also when I get down on Fox directly, so be a little circumspect. At a certain point, Fox will keep showing you your posts, but no one else will see them. You will know this when no one reacts to them, or you can check by going to your incognito page and see if your posts show up or not on fox there.. Its a pretty easy get around though if they shut you down. Just delete your account, (you can keep the same email) , and create a new account with a new user name. It just takes a couple of minutes.
Please try and keep things civil. Witty if possible, and try to avoid insults. Were here to convince Fox people who are often woefully ignorant of the truth. Educate them.
I dont believe youre supposed to cut and paste, but I do successfully. (I keep about 25 posts on file that I use, when I dont write spontaneously or in reply to some stupid thing or another)
Its actually kind of fun, (addicting?) to post, and I think it may actually do a lot of good, as a lot of fox readers arent necessarily committed Trump cultists, they may just be ignorant, not stupid, and they may be on the fence.
Below is an example of what I post.
See you over there!
Foxtruth
Answer back to Fox News
Trumps deep thoughts:
1- why dont we just drop a nuke in the eye of a hurricane to stop it?
2- the Revolutionary Army took over the airports in the 1700s
3- the new clean coal mine is going to take out the coal and actually clean it so itll be clean coal.
4- the F-35s are invisible. They cant fight against them. The enemy can be right next to one and they cant fight because theyre stealth....its literally invisible.
5- Puerto Rico is surrounded by water, big water, ocean water.
6- water is wet....from the standpoint of water.
7- they say the noise from those big windmills causes cancer.
8- disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute. Is there a way we can do that....by injection, almost a cleaning. It sounds interesting to me.
9- Isnt Finland a part of Russia?
10- the map came to me with that sharpie drawing on it.
11. Andrew Jackson should have stopped the Civil War. (He died 16 years prior)
12. Trump said he had never heard of a Category 5 Hurricane even though he had already experienced three in his presidency.
13. When I was hearing the amount of people that died with the flu, I was shocked to hear it I would have said, Does anybody die of the flu? I didnt know people died from the flu.
Fact check: Trumps grandfather died of the flu.
14. "We have it totally under control. Its one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. Its going to be just fine.
Trumps mean girl name calling is surely getting old.
Another example of what I post:
If blue collar workers and the middle class vote for Trump, they may as well take the next steps.
Take out your gun, aim at foot, pull trigger. Then git your knife out and cut off your nose to spite your face.
Trump's buddy Bannon called low income folk voting for republicans, Hobbits.
Imagine what Trump calls you guys when he's with his super wealthy behind closed doors at Mara Lagos.
even Trump voters will eventually see he has no clothes on and that its truly an ugly sight to behold.
.nothin sadder than a poor republican. At least the super rich , the ones who are very greedy, have a reason for a trump vote.
I think the smarter of the folks who voted for Trump the first time are realizing it would be foolish and against their interests to vote for him again.
Good decision, people.
Vote for Joe
Kali
(55,007 posts)your hobby looks fun for those inclined, but it sort of looks like you are spamming this site by posting the same thing over and over. please look around and participate or be aware that we don't tolerate spam here.
Willto
(292 posts)People think that bookies are making a prediction with the odds or spread they set for a game or event. What they are actually doing is adjusting such things to get an equal number to bet on each side. If they do this then the losers pay the winners and they make their money off the vig.
What moves the line or odds? Not really the beliefs of the bookies but the actions of the betters. I used to to do quite well in my younger days betting on college football games. My secret? Watching for games where passionate fans were betting with their hearts and not their heads. This would often move a line on a game quite a bit. And again the bookies don't give a rats ass as long as they keep the betting divided as evenly as possible.
Trump voters are an arrogant lot to start with and I have no doubt in the wake of the Republican convention they are fired up. Probably making some bets which has pushed the odds a bit. Of all the indicators out there betting odds are the last one I would put a lot of stock in where politics are concerned.