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Thu Aug 27, 2020, 10:49 PM

The Only Question Is, Will Biden Get A Bump Out Of This Week's Convention?

What happens if/when his lead solidifies and/or widens?

16 replies, 803 views

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Reply The Only Question Is, Will Biden Get A Bump Out Of This Week's Convention? (Original post)
sfstaxprep Aug 2020 OP
ProudMNDemocrat Aug 2020 #1
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #2
Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #4
regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #5
qazplm135 Aug 28 #14
BannonsLiver Aug 28 #15
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #8
C_U_L8R Aug 2020 #3
lastlib Aug 2020 #6
dem4decades Aug 2020 #7
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #9
dem4decades Aug 2020 #10
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #11
dem4decades Aug 2020 #13
Freethinker65 Aug 2020 #12
Buckeyeblue Aug 28 #16

Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 10:55 PM

1. He should. At least 10 points easily....

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Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 10:57 PM

2. Trump will likely get a point or two

And folks around here need to not freak out over it.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #2)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:13 PM

4. The second convention logically receives the net bounce

 

As the last voice heard. I warned about that last week.

Generalities overwhelm specifics

I think you are correct at a point or two, although possibly higher in some polls.

Trump is being propped by that surreal situational advantage of incumbent whose party has been in power only one term

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:23 PM

5. I fear you're probably right...

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 28, 2020, 01:23 AM

14. I mean there's nothing to fear

unless he gets a pretty large bump of 4-5 pts, he's still going to be more than 5 pts down at what some might suspect is the height of his popularity right after his convention.

He still has:

1. A pandemic, which isn't improving in two months
2. 10 percent UE which, at best, will be around 8 pts by election day. Better, but not great.
3. Civil unrest
4. Three debates where people will see that, no Biden isn't a radical, and no Biden isn't senile, taking away his two arguments.
5. The live on-camera murder of Pence by Harris.
6. A large number of women, POC, LGBTQ, and older voters unhappy with 1, 2, or 3 and motivated more than last time.

So yeah, we might see a couple of weeks of Biden only being up 4 or 5 on average, and state polls tightening...but he's still Trump. He still will say three-five more ridiculous things minimum between now and election day. He still has all those people ready to walk on glass to vote against him, and he still has no hidden reservoir or new Trumpers to match our increased turnout.

It's not going to be a blowout, but he drew an inside straight last time. The odds of him doing it again, with a worse hand, are pretty low.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 28, 2020, 02:56 AM

15. According to CNN's data guy, Harry Enten

6 of the last 8 incumbent presidents received convention bumps in their re election year. Of the 6 that did, the average bump was 2 points.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:30 PM

8. Traditionally. McCain received a larger bump than Obama.

But I don't know if Trump will receive any bump to be honest.

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Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:00 PM

3. Trump certainly got trounced on viewership.

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Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:27 PM

6. He's getting a bump from me---

I'm sending him another donation in the morning!

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Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:29 PM

7. Kelly Ann was right, the more unrest in the streets, the better for Trump.

This week is making me very uneasy. Trump gets to talk about law and order and not the virus.

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Response to dem4decades (Reply #7)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:31 PM

9. Biden took his biggest, most sustained lead, out of the unrest during the Floyd protests.

She is not right. There is no indication Trump benefits from the unrest.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #9)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:34 PM

10. I think you might underestimate the number of racists voting.

I hope i'm wrong, time will tell. They are pounding the law and order shit, willie Horton ring a bell?

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Response to dem4decades (Reply #10)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:36 PM

11. They've been pounding the law and order shit since June.

It's netted nothing for Trump and he loses, head-to-head, on the question who is better for law and order.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #11)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:50 PM

13. I hope you're right. Trump winning would be unfathomable.

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Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Thu Aug 27, 2020, 11:44 PM

12. Within margin of error in swing states.

Is sucks, but Harris and Biden need to get out and define themselves. Harris's speech today was an amazing start. Joe visiting states will be great. They both need media coverage.

Trump will threaten use of DOJ to investigate Democrats for made up shit. Doesn't matter what. Trump wants to control the headlines and use media to throw Democrats off message. It worked last time.

Democrats need to figure out how to respond it is nonsense then reclaim their time and get a unified message out.

I hope we learned from last time.

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Response to sfstaxprep (Original post)

Fri Aug 28, 2020, 04:21 AM

16. Seems like the polls have stabilized

I don't see Trump getting a bump. From here to election day it's a race to get out the vote.

I have to think a lot of caucasians are sick of Trump's bullshit. I don't think corporate America trusts him. Understand, they love the tax cuts but there is a lack of overall trust. Corporate America has been discussing racial injustice in ways that it's never been discussed. I think that will have some influence.

But mainly it has to be about people voting.

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