So both Fivethirtyeight and RCP are showing "tightening" ....
Both in election polling and approval.
WTF is going on?
Just a reversion to the mean, or is Trump "strongman" impression actually working?
Ugh. Maybe a useless worry post... I'm just stunned at the percentage of people who support this monster...
Not sure that means anything.
If the average lead drops down to 3-4 percent or Trump's avg lead in BG states re-emerges ok then worry. Til then hyper focus on polling this far out is of limited utility.
October polls are what matter more, that's when early voting is in full force everywhere and people are really paying attention.
This weekend was stressful for other reasons and I think I am overreacting.
Go disconnect your internet, find a cabin in the mountain and chill there until election day if you're going to be triggered by even marginal movement in the polls because you're not gonna make it to November, my friend.
First thing I saw when I arrived here (DU), I'm closing this tab now - don't need the anxiety.
I want this Mutha**&^er gone so bad I can taste it and I want Joe to win by 20 points. I'm a nervous wreck this AM for some reason.
There are some days it just shakes you a little harder than others.
I too come on DU to post worries in those moments - sometimes I find support, sometimes I find heckling, but at least I always find that I am not alone.
Dont pollsters typically shift from Registered Voters to Likely Voters around this time?
They are not the same scale.
Top one is an 18 point spread, the bottom is 12 points
and in 2016, actually ahead a few times at this point already.
SO far he's been solidly behind the whole time.
He has painted a rosy picture of how well he has handled everything, and uninformed people believe him. Thus, they approve him and will vote for him.
activists burning things and trying to get at a federal courthouse does not play well with a lot of people.
defund the police is also a really bad phrase and souring some people
let's keep an eye on it.
but, I think, races nearly always tighten closer to election. We need to ready for that.
"In 10 of the 15 presidential elections from 1944- 2000, the candidate who was leading in the polls on Labor Day saw his margin shrink by the time of the final poll. (This includes Thomas Dewey, who managed to lose to Harry Truman in 1948 despite never trailing in the polls.) If you average together all 15 of those contests, the Labor Day spread was cut in half by Election Dayalthough the early leader won the popular vote in every case except Dewey-Truman. In other words, while last-minute poll tightening is far from death and taxes, it is a real phenomenon."
But if not..... here's what is I was referring to:
I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of "tightening" as November approaches. The media and others will try to amplify the horse race aspect of things, we'll freak out, etc. Biden's VP selection will simultaneously energize our side as well as renew scrutiny of the ticket. So these things may be a wash.
More and more undecideds are going to select a candidate as November approaches, and we've got to remember too that not all of the undecideds will go to Biden. Some will go to Trump because they're really just Republicans at heart, period.
So there may be periods where the Biden and Trump gap grows and shrinks, but the bottom line is that on the whole, I'd rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump right now.