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Sun Aug 2, 2020, 08:23 PM

'It's like it's April 1930 and the Depression is just underway'

Spent much of the weekend watching videos on stocks and the economy. There are some serious financial historians here and there. Ray Dalio, who runs some big hedge fund group, say the Depression is underway. A minor analyst had chart after chart of 1930, and compared the current market rise to the period Nov 1929 to April 1930 - very similar patterns and magnitude - followed by a collapse.

3 years of Depression said Dalio. Financial innovation will keep us afloat and ingenuity will help people survive and create new paths for their lives and livelihoods.

The market could go up or down from here, thought most thought down, and gold and crypto are headed up was the consensus.

I just don't know what to think, or do. Plod forward one day at a time.

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Arrow 13 replies Author Time Post
Reply 'It's like it's April 1930 and the Depression is just underway' (Original post)
bucolic_frolic Aug 2 OP
Sherman A1 Aug 2 #1
CanonRay Aug 2 #2
leighbythesea2 Aug 2 #3
bucolic_frolic Aug 2 #4
leighbythesea2 Aug 2 #5
leighbythesea2 Aug 2 #6
bucolic_frolic Aug 3 #7
leighbythesea2 Aug 4 #8
roamer65 Aug 4 #9
leighbythesea2 Aug 4 #10
roamer65 Aug 4 #12
Generic Brad Aug 4 #11
leighbythesea2 Aug 4 #13

Response to bucolic_frolic (Original post)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 08:29 PM

1. A lot depends on the next stimulus package

If they scrimp on the UI then we will see things deteriorate rather quickly. Right now I am paying off my last debt by year end. Then it will just be monthly expenses and we will see how things shake out.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Original post)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 08:35 PM

2. Exactly what I've been saying

to anyone who will listen

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Original post)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 09:05 PM

3. Need to research

If you have any links please post! Im not surprised to hear this. Trying to plan. Its plans a b c d ......

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Response to leighbythesea2 (Reply #3)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 09:18 PM

4. Here's 2





Dalio is a big conservative Wall Street guy, but he's a well respected financial historian.

I couldn't find the video i watched about charts from the 1930s to today. it might have been SAJAD, or TheoTrade vid for the weekend.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #4)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 09:42 PM

5. Thank you!

For these!
I just checked a gold website i use. The commentary often has some historical context too.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #4)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 10:03 PM

6. Just watched these

Its hard to diversify enough. I would need to study up. !

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Response to leighbythesea2 (Reply #6)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 06:39 AM

7. In particular they are talking about diversity with respect to currencies

other than the US dollar. Foreign stocks and the like.

And FAANG stocks plus Tesla now make up more than 30% of the Nasdaq. So mutual funds and ETFs in any US or even global index has a significant part of just 7 stocks. Analyst at TheoTrade is even saying diversity is dead because you can hardly escape them.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #7)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 01:11 AM

8. Have never held foreign

Currency. Was told by a good friend to do it. And yeah, the rest makes sense. Im not holding faang currently either. I used to have a wider portfolio. Then 2008 scared me. I got out of some. I also had been given stock options at work, but i work in fashion apparel, so you can imagine how those did.

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Response to leighbythesea2 (Reply #8)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 01:42 AM

9. When the fiat currency system starts to unravel, there will be no safe one to hold.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #9)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 07:51 PM

10. Gold and silver

In that case.
Planned some there a very long time ago

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Response to leighbythesea2 (Reply #10)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 10:13 PM

12. $2011 right now.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Original post)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 08:26 PM

11. I've got a plan

I moved my entire 401k into the lowest risk option available to me a few weeks ago. And then I have been building up my savings and have moved it to brokerage account I recently established. Now I sit and wait.

The moment the market drops four consecutive days or loses more than 10% (I'm expecting an unprecedented 20-30% drop) I will reallocate my 401k to stocks and invest my brokerage dollars into specific index funds I have been watching. I am not out to get rich, but I am not out to be poor either.

Last year I invested in some annuities and high yield CD's that will pull in around 3% over the next few years. I know that sounds anemic now to those heavily involved in the stock market, but at least I am positioned on those investments to continue earning money if other investors are wiped out.

I took a similar approach in July 2008 and didn't lose any principal when the bottom fell out. My only regret back then was that I did not have any money available to put into stocks when things looked dire.

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Response to Generic Brad (Reply #11)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 10:22 PM

13. Nice

Risk mitigation is all i want these days.

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