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Thu Jul 30, 2020, 04:08 PM

Musing about the 2020 election

During the past three years, I've thought often about how Trump can win re-election. Assuming everything was on the up and up in 2016 (and I don't think it was), duplicating that feat was going to be tough. Trump has made and broken promises to every "surprise" state he won in 2016, so his razor thin margins of victory in 2016 aren't going to hold up in 2020.

So where does Trump go to get more votes this time around? What states is he likely to pick up in 2020 that he lost in 2016 when his entire administration has been geared to rewarding states he won and punishing states he lost? He lost the popular vote by 2.8 million votes in 2016, and it doesn't look hopeful for him to win over very many voters that he didn't have previously. Rolling those thoughts around in my brain, and buttressed by the 2018 results, I'm optimistic about November.

Going forward beyond the 2020 election, what is in the offing for the Republicans? They have spent three years relentlessly courting their base and just as relentlessly alienating millions of Americans. Decent people are uniformly appalled at Donald Trump, and we think that he's the culmination of the horrible policies of the GOP since 1976. How do the Republicans go about getting more supporters after the 2020 election? And if they pander to anyone to the left of the hidebound dinosaurs who think Pat Buchanan looks like a commie, how do they choose a nominee for 2024? As bad as Trump is, does 2024's Republican field have to out-Trump Trump in order to get the votes of the base and win the nomination?

Even if they get creamed in November, I'm not certain that Republicans have hit rock bottom yet.

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Reply Musing about the 2020 election (Original post)
gratuitous Thursday OP
erronis Thursday #1
gratuitous Thursday #2
erronis Thursday #3

Response to gratuitous (Original post)

Thu Jul 30, 2020, 05:12 PM

1. I like your post - expresses my feelings. But is there a punchline? A possible solution?

Maybe even a closing paragraph?

All you've given me is the same old wonderings that go on in my brain. Worst/best case scenarios, what-if, how to survive.

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Response to erronis (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 30, 2020, 05:28 PM

2. No, just musing on the 2020 election

I've been optimistic since 2018 that Democrats can stage another blue wave, this time with the Republicans having to defend a lot of Senate seats. I've long been persuaded that in addition to enlarging the House majority, Democrats can flip the Senate. Although Biden wasn't my first choice as the nominee, it's been gratifying to see Democrats coalesce around him. I've seen some trollery surrounding the VP slot, and my first response has been "Don't tell us what you hate about [insert hopeful's name here]; tell me why you think your preferred running mate is best for the ticket."

My comfort with a Biden presidency has increased because I think he will avoid the original sin of the Obama administration, which was looking forward, not back. Our failure to hold the Bush II administration accountable for launching two wars and invasions, instituting a torture regime, and holding prisoners without charge or counsel at Guantanamo has led to the Trump administration and even bolder transgressions against the Constitution and American ideals. I feel that a Biden administration will have a reckoning for some of the depredations of the Trump administration, and I think Democrats won't fall for the carping of Republicans that we're criminalizing political differences. No, we holding criminals accountable.

The punch line is pretty weak: Go about your work during this election season with a glad heart; as Victor Laszlo said, "This time, I know our side will win."

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Response to gratuitous (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 30, 2020, 08:36 PM

3. That works for me. A great hope for the future.

Thanks for your extraordinary response.

I know I vacillate between gloom and hope. What I think I know and what I hear from within and without my bubbles.

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