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Tue Jul 28, 2020, 02:00 AM

538 clip: Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-democrats-could-win-60-seats-in-the-senate/

A Dem-controlled filibuster-proof Senate - anyone think that's possible?
I'd be happy with us just taking back control of the Senate but one could dream.

29 replies, 1467 views

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Reply 538 clip: Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate (Original post)
onetexan Jul 28 OP
SunSeeker Jul 28 #1
onetexan Jul 28 #2
lastlib Jul 28 #3
onetexan Jul 28 #4
pecosbob Jul 28 #5
grantcart Jul 28 #6
cannabis_flower Jul 28 #15
NewJeffCT Jul 28 #16
grantcart Jul 28 #21
Awsi Dooger Jul 28 #7
pecosbob Jul 28 #11
onetexan Jul 28 #19
Cosmocat Jul 28 #23
Cha Jul 28 #8
onetexan Jul 28 #27
regnaD kciN Jul 28 #9
onetexan Jul 28 #10
dsc Jul 28 #20
duforsure Jul 28 #12
onetexan Jul 28 #17
beachbumbob Jul 28 #13
onetexan Jul 28 #18
Takket Jul 28 #14
Happy Hoosier Jul 28 #22
JCMach1 Jul 28 #24
onetexan Jul 28 #26
Wounded Bear Jul 28 #25
Proud Liberal Dem Jul 28 #28
coti Jul 28 #29

Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 02:08 AM

1. Oh fuck yes!

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #1)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 02:29 AM

2. So glad i'm not the only one who dares to dream

Can't wait to see Moscow Mitch's face on 11/4 knowing he just lost control of the Senate

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Response to onetexan (Reply #2)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 02:50 AM

3. ...AND his own seat!

That would make it oh, so much sweeter!

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Response to lastlib (Reply #3)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 02:57 AM

4. oh heck yes!!

Amy McGrath (KY) & MJ Hegar (TX) are the 2 senate seats i would get most satisfaction from if these 2 amazing lady vets flip them. MJ would be my Senator and she's from Round Rock near me. She's within single digits striking distance now but hopefully w/ this Blue Tsunami both these ladies will benefit from that & win their seats.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 03:16 AM

5. I honestly only see four seats changing hands

To build a super majority we would likely need two new states with four more blue Senators and a strong mid-term re-affirmation.

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Response to pecosbob (Reply #5)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 03:28 AM

6. CO AZ ME IA NC MT look solid KS GA GA possible

AL & KY look like bridge too far.

The filibuster (which was originally 66) should be eliminated because the Republicans abused it. It was used only once in the first 100 years.

The Senate already has a super majority without the filibuster; the 20 least populated states (mostly red) have a combined population less than CA but have 40 Senate votes but only 18% of the population.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #6)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 08:36 AM

15. You typed GA twice

Did you mean to put another state?

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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #15)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 08:49 AM

16. There are two seats up for Georgia

the seat to replace David Perdue, who is up for re-election. Perdue is opposed by Jon Ossoff. Current polling has Ossoff about even.

@ossoff on Twitter

Then, there is the special election with the Insider Trading Kelly Loeffler running to keep the seat she was appointed to when Johnny Isakson retired due to cancer. Loeffler is opposed by Doug Collins in her own party and by Rev. Raphael Warnock for the Democrats. That election is also November 3rd, but if nobody gets 50%, then the runoff will be on January 3rd. RW extremist loon Collins is leading RW extremist Loeffler on the Republican side, so I'm hoping Warnock can unify Democrats (A few others are running on the Dem side) and get 50% in November while Loeffler & Collins split the Republican vote.

@ReverendWarnock on Twitter





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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #15)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:22 AM

21. 2 GA seats on ballot this time

Almost always they go together to the same party.

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Response to pecosbob (Reply #5)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 03:54 AM

7. I agree with the low number

Federal races are decided on ideology, far beyond governorships which are more prone to flip parties. We are chasing too many senate seats in states with 40+% conservatives. I realize nobody appreciates it but the polling is not as reliable during that scenario. The fundamentals tend to dictate.

Maybe we can pull out one or two of those. We are not going to sweep the board against a lineup of states with 40-45% conservatives. I remember posting the same thing when I joined this site in 2002. There was a thread declaring, "My Dream Scenario in the Senate." The guy had us winning every race in red states, despite huge stacks of conservatives lined up against us, and a national security theme sweeping the nation after 9/11. I remember I got chastised as misguided in that thread for listing the percentage of conservatives in each state. But it held up, and it holds up 18 years later, and it will hold up decade after decade.

I'm still ticked at Bill Nelson for being so lazy and seemingly unconcerned during 2018. That was basically a giveaway. Gillum took both races lower than they should have been but if Nelson had gotten going earlier and devoted any emphasis to the Hispanic vote he probably could have squeaked out a razor tight win, leaving us one seat closer.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #7)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 05:42 AM

11. I think it's going to take years of Dem control along with a new bullet-proof Voting Rights Act

to overcome the entrenched imbalance in many red states. The packed courts will be a boat anchor around our necks for decades.

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Response to pecosbob (Reply #11)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:16 AM

19. Yes we need to pass the VRA & put term limits on the lifetime judge appointments

We can also expand SCOTUS. Hey they play dirty; we can too. The SCOTUS # isn't set in stone. it is possible to add more justices and at least balance it out.

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Response to pecosbob (Reply #5)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:25 AM

23. I would split the difference if it were today

60 would be a 2016 45 style inside straight win, but I think if the election were today we would have a mildly comfortable margin in the senate, maybe 53/54 to 47/46. If things keep trending how they are, it could get to 55/45 or 56/44.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 04:00 AM

8. Here's to Dems making it Happen!

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Response to Cha (Reply #8)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 12:40 PM

27. You betcha

Aloha Cha Dems need to turn out enmasse
altogether it can be done

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 04:29 AM

9. We had one of those in Obama's first term...

…and all that happened was that the “Blue Dogs” made common cause with Republicans to block a public option, restrict the scope of the stimulus, etc., etc.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #9)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 05:02 AM

10. Dems need to stop this crap re: making any concessions w/ the GOP

There's way too much damage to repair, and the Rethug Senators have contributed to that.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #9)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:19 AM

20. That is grossly misleading

The stimulus was passed before Franken was seated and before specter changed parties. We hid 60 seats for less than half a year

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 05:49 AM

12. As long as trump keeps talking , tweeting , and attacking Americans,

Those numbers could be 8-10. Trump and republicans devastating Americans with their pathetic stimulus bill , and the depression setting in. many will have seen enough of trump and the GOP in office, and oust them. They're tuning states blue with what they're doing now to hurt us and the economy, and all the corruption going on.

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Response to duforsure (Reply #12)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:15 AM

17. This!!

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 06:02 AM

13. its all about GOTV and the anger of the majority of americans have with GOP and trump

no doubt there is going to be a landslide, just like 2018. The question is how great of one. Anger FUELS voters and GOP was successful for years in winning elections as their voters were spurred on by anger BUT now the shoe is on the other foot. "WE" outnumber republicans and historically too many democrats sit elections out. This has indeed changed.

The ONLY tactic the GOP has going is out right voter suppression and we KNOW that is coming and we KNOW what needs to be done to neutralize it

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #13)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:15 AM

18. So true!

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 06:18 AM

14. As the video says it is very unlikely

To me, specifically, GA. no way in hell are we winning a senate seat there while Kemp is governor. He’ll Rig it.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 09:23 AM

22. "Could" is a stretch word here.

COULD it happen? Yes. And I would be popping more than few corks.

But it's unlikely. I think we have an excellent chance of securing a 5+ seat majority.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 10:36 AM

24. I hope 59, we need to deep six the fillibuster

Permanently

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #24)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 12:38 PM

26. Agree. That needs to really be done.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 10:43 AM

25. Yeah, 60 is a stretch, to say the least...

as the video said.

However, 4-6 seats flipped seems well within the realm of possibility. Kill the fillibuster and that would be meaningful. There are still a couple of things that require a super majority, as listed in the Constitution. Other than that, fuck minority rule.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 12:41 PM

28. Us controlling the Senate

and Mitch gone too would be a dream come true.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Tue Jul 28, 2020, 12:41 PM

29. Folks, please don't start getting these kinds of ideas.

We'll be lucky to take the Senate back at all.

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