HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Pandemic math

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 02:29 AM

Pandemic math

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

When I look at this link right now, it says that 4.3 million people in the US have contracted CV19. Remember that number.

Of that 4.3 million, just over 2 million have recovered. That leaves 2.3 million who might still be able to recover.

However. If the fatality rate remains the same, we will see another 170,000 US citizens will die. And that is only limited because this assumption sys that no additional people will catch the horrid virus. Sadly, our current government hasn't a damn clue, so we know that number will rise unabated.

Think for a moment. By the November election, we will be at the 320,000 dead count. From the Trump Virus. What will your reaction be?

6 replies, 596 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Pandemic math (Original post)
RainCaster Jul 26 OP
TreasonousBastard Jul 26 #1
unblock Jul 26 #2
Beartracks Jul 26 #3
SheltieLover Jul 26 #4
uponit7771 Jul 26 #6
Skittles Jul 26 #5

Response to RainCaster (Original post)

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 02:46 AM

1. Add that to the deaths from recision of clean air and water rules and other environmental and

chemical catastrophes.

The equivalent of shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to RainCaster (Original post)

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 02:57 AM

2. I don't think it's quite that dire

the death rate among already resolved cases may be about 7% (140k divided by 2m) but that's rather higher than what they're saying the COVID-19 death rate is (about 1.4%).

In any event, the death rate among active cases isn't necessarily the same as the death rate among resolved cases. First, although Donnie is abusing the point, it is true that we are testing more now than we were early on. So the resolved cases reflects more symptomatic and serious cases, whereas the active cases include more people with mild or no symptoms simply because we're testing more. So the death rate among active cases should be lower.

Second, there's a timing issue in terms of how long it takes for a case that's going to result in death for the death to happen vs. how long it takes for a case that's going to result in recovery for them to deem that person recovered. My guess is the deaths get found out and recorded but the recoveries could take a long time as it may take multiple testing and so on. Moreover, an active case might no longer have a fever and just stop checking in. They might actually be recovered but system loses track of them. Hopefully this doesn't happen often but surely it happens more with recoveries than with deaths.


Anyway, though, you correctly note that this doesn't even take into account new cases, which are on the rise, so we certainly could see over 300k deaths by November.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to RainCaster (Original post)

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 03:05 AM

3. And we shouldn't just focus on deaths. Many of the recovered...

... will continue to suffer long-term effects from lung damage and other problems.

=======

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Beartracks (Reply #3)

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 05:51 AM

4. This!👆

Well said!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Beartracks (Reply #3)

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 06:46 AM

6. This! ☝🏾

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to RainCaster (Original post)

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 06:13 AM

5. I wonder what the REAL death count is

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread