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Tue Jul 7, 2020, 03:08 PM

This Kentucky Democrat may be the key to the Senate majority

(CNN) Amid all of the grilling and fireworks, you may have missed a development that could fundamentally impact the fight for the Senate majority this fall: Amy McGrath beat Charles Booker to win the Kentucky Democratic primary.

What!?, you say. Mitch McConnell isn't going to lose this fall! Which, in the main, is probably right. McConnell is a very able politician. It's how he has won six times in Kentucky and is currently the most influential Republican -- aside from President Donald Trump -- in Washington. But McGrath doesn't need to beat McConnell to reshape the Senate map. All she has to do is be competitive enough that she a) keeps McConnell focused on his own race and b) forces him (and, potentially, the national Republican Party) to spend time and money ensuring that the Republican leader wins.

snip

And this is where strategy comes in. Remember that the amount of money -- via national parties and super PACS -- that will be spent on the battle for the Senate is finite. Let's, for the sake of explaining how this works, say there is $200 million that Republican committees and super PACs have to spend on all of the Senate races in the country this fall. (The actual number is likely to be much, MUCH higher than that.)

McConnell, because he is not only the most powerful Republican in the Senate but also because he raised tens of millions for the party and its related super PACs (of which the major one is staffed by longtime McConnell allies), will get as much money from these groups as he needs to win. So, let's say that $20 million gets spent on the Kentucky race to make sure that McConnell is insulated from the TV ad onslaught that McGrath's fundraising can buy.

Well, that's $20 million that can't be spent on trying to reelect Arizona Sen. Martha McSally. Or Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Or North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis. Or Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler. You get the idea.

And then there's this to consider: If McConnell, the best fundraiser among Senate Republicans, is focused on raising money for his own reelection race, he can't raise as much money for all of those senators I just named above. Ditto for if he is pinned down in Kentucky rather than traveling across the country for events to collect cash for the most vulnerable GOP incumbents.

Winning, when it comes to McConnell, isn't necessarily the goal for Senate Democrats as they try to net the three seats (if Joe Biden wins the White House) or four (if he doesn't) they need for the majority. Senate Democrats don't need Kentucky to get to the majority. In fact, there are roughly a dozen GOP seats that would likely fall before McConnell loses. Instead, keeping McConnell occupied on his own race has to be Democrats' goal. And McGrath makes that much more likely.

(Read More)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/politics/amy-mcgrath-mitch-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-2020/index.html

*Yep. Keep Mitch all tangled up and busy (and Barr too) and trump goes down without his two life-preservers.....



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Reply This Kentucky Democrat may be the key to the Senate majority (Original post)
FM123 Jul 7 OP
intrepidity Jul 7 #1
FM123 Jul 7 #5
Bayard Jul 7 #2
Duppers Jul 8 #6
brooklynite Jul 7 #3
lastlib Jul 7 #4

Response to FM123 (Original post)

Tue Jul 7, 2020, 03:15 PM

1. A winning strategy

I could live with McConnell having to function as the Minority leader, dealing with (hopefully!) payback for his excruciating years of fuckery.

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Response to intrepidity (Reply #1)

Tue Jul 7, 2020, 03:54 PM

5. I could live with him being demoted to minority leader as a consolation prize

but boy oh boy would I like to see him out altogether! I don't know enough about Amy and KY politics, but she seems sharp as a tack and I hope she beats his ass!

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Response to FM123 (Original post)

Tue Jul 7, 2020, 03:18 PM

2. Not really agreeing with the premise there

It was a big deal here on DU when Amy McGrath won the primary. I personally believe she has the best chance to beat McConnell. She's even with him on polling, and raising just as much money, sometimes more, than him.

Second, he needs to go anyway. No matter if Dems take back the senate or not, he will still be there stirring up shit.

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Response to Bayard (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 8, 2020, 08:42 AM

6. Indeed. 👍

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Response to FM123 (Original post)

Tue Jul 7, 2020, 03:26 PM

3. Nope...

We need net four (assuming we lose Alabama)

Arizona and Colorado are already flipped. NC and Maine are Dem leading.

Georgia, Iowa, Kansas and Montana are competitive.

That's where the Senate Majority comes from. Kentucky is still a long stretch.

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Response to FM123 (Original post)

Tue Jul 7, 2020, 03:49 PM

4. Crushing his little turtle head this November is one of MY priorities....

Yes, I want to re-take the Senate (and the White house), but I want to do it over the remnants of MoscowMitch's shattered turtle shell. I want him humiliated, embarrassed, pulverized, and ignominiously crushed in defeat on the morning of November 4th. Anything less will be a somewhat hollow victory at best. More than any other Senator, I want MoscowMitch taken down! To that end, I am donating as much as possible to Amy McGrath, and any group dedicated to his political destruction.

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