The three issues I believe will decide the election and why Trump loses on each of them.
The three issues that I believe will decide the election.
RACISM
I sense a sea change. I feel the protests have really highlighted a problem that many in America have been blind to. Polls now show that at least three in four people think racism in America is big problem. That's a big jump, and Trump is on the wrong side of public opinion. That is a hit on Trump's support and I believe his approval is heading back to 40%. More people have woken up to Trump's inability and unwillingness to do anything as he panders to his base. This is a moral issue, a question of right versus wrong, like healthcare should have been a moral issue, and most people think Trump is wrong. He will never be serious about police reforms. His strongman act appeals to his hard base, but not to the majority of Americans.
Trump 0, Biden 1
PANDEMIC
The spread of infections is not under control, with many states recording their highest levels of new cases in just the last few days. This will be the number one news story again as cases and deaths rise over the coming months. Blaming China and running ads linking Biden to China is risky for Trump, because all Biden needs to do is play Trump's praise of China's handling of the virus before it became politically expedient to have a scapegoat. It isn't hard to lay the blame on Trump for ignoring the problem, ignoring social distancing, bungling the response and urging states to reopen too soon. Like police brutality, the contrast between a vain, posturing Trump and an empathetic Biden will become clear to more people.
Trump 0, Biden 1
ECONOMY
Trump still leads on the economy, but I believe this will change before election day. When he took credit for the jobs report yesterday, he made it clear that he "owns" the economic recovery. His bragging makes it hard to shrug off responsibility when the revised report is released with a higher figure and we find that future months are still grim. To pretend that everything is rosy won't wash. When people have spent their stimulus or their savings, there will still be a lack of jobs, disproportionately affecting ethnic minorities. Some of these jobs are gone forever, businesses have folded, and many people still won't want to get on planes, go to movie theaters, etc. Covid is still here and still spreading. That means America is in a much worse position than other nations who have brought the spread under control. It is going to be a horrible time for tens of millions, and the debate about closing down again and more help for those in economic hardship will heat up. Also, Wall Street is unsustainable. It is nearly back to where it was, and that defies the facts that the recovery will be slow and unemployment is going to be high for years. The stock market cannot keep climbing.
Trump 0, Biden 1
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And I agree with your thorough statements.
Thank you.
Trump negative infinity, Biden 1
