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Fri May 15, 2020, 08:08 AM

With states reopening, under Trump's leadership, daily cases in USA jump 50%

Egged on by the idiot in the Whitehouse, as states reopened this week and millions of people followed his example of ignoring social distancing and mask-wearing, new daily cases in USA went from 18,000 on Monday to over 27,000 on Thursday.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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Reply With states reopening, under Trump's leadership, daily cases in USA jump 50% (Original post)
Doodley May 2020 OP
empedocles May 2020 #1
Laelth May 2020 #8
dawg May 2020 #2
Doodley May 2020 #18
Mike 03 May 2020 #3
JI7 May 2020 #5
Wounded Bear May 2020 #7
Yonnie3 May 2020 #9
Doodley May 2020 #19
uponit7771 May 2020 #34
uponit7771 May 2020 #4
Ms. Toad May 2020 #6
Yonnie3 May 2020 #10
uponit7771 May 2020 #11
Yonnie3 May 2020 #15
Pobeka May 2020 #24
uponit7771 May 2020 #31
Pobeka May 2020 #38
Ms. Toad May 2020 #35
uponit7771 May 2020 #37
USALiberal May 2020 #14
DrToast May 2020 #16
Tipperary May 2020 #20
dawg May 2020 #21
uponit7771 May 2020 #32
Pobeka May 2020 #25
gristy May 2020 #12
Doodley May 2020 #17
Bernardo de La Paz May 2020 #13
machoneman May 2020 #22
bucolic_frolic May 2020 #23
AlexSFCA May 2020 #26
Lars39 May 2020 #28
AlexSFCA May 2020 #39
Lars39 May 2020 #40
AlexSFCA May 2020 #41
Frances May 2020 #27
Captain Stern May 2020 #29
uponit7771 May 2020 #33
Ms. Toad May 2020 #36
gordianot May 2020 #30

Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:18 AM

1. Happening faster than I expected

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Response to empedocles (Reply #1)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:41 AM

8. +1 That was my immediate response. n/t



-Laelth

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:20 AM

2. Still looks like the normal weekly pattern to me, but other than NY/NJ ...

things are definitely not getting better.

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Response to dawg (Reply #2)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:55 AM

18. Normal weekly pattern but maybe it is significant that the Monday figure was the lowest

for six weeks. Doesn't look good to go from the lowest figure back to an average figure.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:24 AM

3. I'm only keeping a general track on the numbers

but this week I noticed higher numbers in Texas and some other states. Here in AZ we were averaging 150 to 200 new cases a day and it seems like we're up around 400 the last few days I looked.

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Response to Mike 03 (Reply #3)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:27 AM

5. maybe there was more testing which accounts for higher cases

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Response to JI7 (Reply #5)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:32 AM

7. If you just watch the national numbers, the increases in red areas gets drowned out...

not completely, but somewhat by NY, CA, and WA having leveled off and started dropping.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #5)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:45 AM

9. Yes - and it is too soon for incubation, spreading, and testing to show the effects of openings.

My tracking shows a low number of tests reported on Monday (175,330). I don't rely on a single data point to draw any conclusions. The 7 day average of tests was 334,746 on Thursday. A week before it was 272,239. I'm pleased to see this ramping up but IMO it is not quick enough.

A seven day average of daily new cases was 23,567 for yesterday and 28,229 for the week before. Let's see what it is next week and the week after.



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Response to JI7 (Reply #5)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:59 AM

19. Is that to paraphrase Donald Trump?

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Response to JI7 (Reply #5)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:39 AM

34. covidact.org shows the proper infection rate per state and there are only 5, I don't believe

... for a second West Virginia is testing properly unless they have a dem gov.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:26 AM

4. That was fast !! We sure that's been over a number of weeks? tia

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:31 AM

6. You're cherry-picking numbers.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday have a pattern of being low. If you compare the number of new cases to the same day of the week last week, there are fewer new cases, so reopening must be slowing growth of cases.

The reality is that we're about a week from seeing the impact of reopenings that happened this week, and when wee shoo we will need to establish that change by looking at averages or multi-day trends.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:52 AM

10. +1

Because of that weekly pattern I only look at 7 day averages. I posted some of these numbers up thread.

Unfortunately with the increases in testing, it is hard to draw any hard conclusions from the averaged new case numbers.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:54 AM

11. +1, do we have a weekly chart? I've been looking for the last 30 mins and can't find a ...

... weekly day to day chart.

Also, it looks like worldometers is showing NY metro data only so we can subtract NY area from the rest of the nation.

I still hold that NY Metro skews the national numbers

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #11)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:17 AM

15. I was thinking of doing this but decided it wasn't worth the work.

I came to the conclusion that the rate of infections varies so greatly both regionally and with population density that national tracking isn't very useful.

I'm doing this for my state (Virginia), but it is difficult because they keep changing how they count things and how they present the data. Now they have a dashboard where I can select and group counties and see various data and an average in graphic form.

I've searched and not found a regularly updated source of graphs with averages for the United States. It may exist, but I've not found it.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #11)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:42 AM

24. Go here and look at daily new cases in the menu. The day to day pattern is clear.

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Response to Pobeka (Reply #24)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:28 AM

31. There's no way to take out NY, there's no numbers that show nationally sans NY like TRMS showed

... last week.

We need that to be able to tell a national Ro san NY seeing NY was 2 months ahead of everyone else in Ro.

State by state the numbers don't look good at all and the increase in testing doesn't explain for it seeing they're still undertesting.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #31)

Fri May 15, 2020, 01:23 PM

38. You could go to github and grab the Johns Hopkins data for yourself.

They have been collecting state by state testing data as well since April 12. But you have to parse individual csv files by state and summarize the results for yourself.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #11)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:41 AM

35. NY Metro definitely skews the national numbers.

I've seen graphs that plot the national numbers with NY and without. The difference is dramatic.

I use worldometers to get daily numbers. If you click to the USA and scroll down you can see the weekly cycle (and get data for each day).

Here's my 7-day averages for new cases (which I keep in an Excel chart) - each date is the end of a 7-day average (you can see cases started to go back up weeks ending May 3, and 4 (suggesting an increase in new cases from somewhere around April 25 - May 4) :

April 27 - 30,337
April 28 - 30,219
April 29 - 29,973
April 30 - 29,821
May 1 - 29,400
May 2 - 28,589
May 3 - 28,709
May 4 - 28,904
May 5 - 28,838
May 6 - 28,414
May 7 - 28,229
May 8 - 27,251
May 9 - 26,648
May 10 - 25,645
May 11 - 24,714
May 12 - 24,429
May 13 - 23,894
May 14 - 23,567

I am expecting it to start climbing in a week or so . . .

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #35)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:55 AM

37. +1,I was just looking at the chart above (https://outbreak.info/data) on the county level

... and its scary AF.

The rest of the country on the county level is getting lit up bad.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:00 AM

14. Thanks for this! Nt

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:18 AM

16. +1,000,0000

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:03 AM

20. Georgia opened a while ago.

 

Wonder if they are not testing or suppressing numbers. Probably both.

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Response to Tipperary (Reply #20)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:18 AM

21. We're definitely suppressing numbers.

Also, just because our idiot governor said to open back up doesn't mean that we've all actually done that. Many of us continue to social distance and work from home as much as possible.

If anything, I've withdrawn even more, because I know the idiots have been unleashed and are now fully on the loose. (But that was pretty much always the case anyway.)

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Response to Tipperary (Reply #20)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:29 AM

32. according to covidactnow.org Georgia isn't testing enough people

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:44 AM

25. +1. Any reasonable comparison would use 7 day averages. n/t

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 08:54 AM

12. The OP is cherry picking numbers

Scroll 1/3 the way down at the OP's link. Daily new case numbers are noisy.
One could just as easily post that new cases on 5/14 (27,246) are down 9% compared to 7 days prior (29531).

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Response to gristy (Reply #12)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:51 AM

17. Maybe, but that figure of 18196 on Monday was the lowest for six weeks. Maybe

it would have been a continual downward trend had states not reopened. We will see if it is significant if we went from the lowest for six weeks back to a much higher figure. Maybe the figure would have been much lower than 18,000 had states not reopened. Let's see what today's figure shows and the next few days.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 09:00 AM

13. Lots of variation in individual day numbers. Less testing on weekends, Monday testing results Thur/F


You have to look at smoothed averages, like 3-day or 7-day running averages.

Look at the daily case number chart for US at your link. Notice that there is a peak every 7 days or so: April 4, April 10, April 17, Apr 24, May 1, May 7, May 14. Mostly Fridays.

(I use worldometers regularly myself.)

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:22 AM

22. Watch Wisconsin! All those elbow-to-elbow beer drinkers on the news, no masks either will.....

tilt the number upwards and fast! All the networks showed 2-3 different bars in the state and all were packed and nary a mask in sight.

Whoo doggies they we having a good time.....that is, until the Grim Reaper arrives!

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:23 AM

23. The plan is to have every

American voter who is deceased from COVID-19 vote for Trump in November.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:51 AM

26. the most important metric is hospitalization rate

Infections not requiring hospitalizations are good infections as they lead to greater community immunity. We must plan that the vaccine wonít be available for 5 years so we will have new infections daily for all these years. Itís hospitalization rate that needs to remain low.

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Response to AlexSFCA (Reply #26)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:56 AM

28. No sign yet of immunity and people are dying at home.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #28)

Fri May 15, 2020, 02:27 PM

39. Risk of reinfection is negligible to none.

This is from the highest medical authority of South Korea. Far more reputable entity that CDCís propaganda.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #40)

Fri May 15, 2020, 06:32 PM

41. dead virus is picked by swab test

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 10:55 AM

27. But

Itís Obamaís fault

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:05 AM

29. That has nothing to do with states reopening.

The polices of the reopening states haven't been in effect long enough to make a difference yet.

However, the fact that the number of new cases over time doesn't appear to be going lower is probably a good reason that states that were the most aggressive in reopening shouldn't have been.

We'll know a whole lot more by the end of the month.

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Response to Captain Stern (Reply #29)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:36 AM

33. +1, this is a real good point; The reopening should be based on a quantitative number to 1 million

... vs a relative one from a top number of cases.

Even if the number of infections did decrease over a period of time you don't want to open when the relative Ro is 1.5 and is still in the thousands for instance.

So even "decrease in number of infections" isn't right, "opening up" should be based on how many cases per [some static number].

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Response to Captain Stern (Reply #29)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:48 AM

36. They have been going down.

See this post, which includes 7-day averages since late April.

(The fact that they have been going down nationall - skewed by NY does NOT mean that states should be opening back up. Ohio, for example, has not met the 2-week of declining new cases to even start Phase 1 and, as of today, some of our phase 3 businesses are open (which should have taken a minimum of 42 days).

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 11:10 AM

30. My real sympathy in all this is for healthcare workers and morticians.

Healthcare workers and morticians are responsible for processing bodies in different stages of deterioration. There are the innocent victims and those who knowingly took the risk; I just hope they opt for cremation.

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