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Thu May 14, 2020, 06:14 PM

I'm thinking Biden will have to win by 10 million votes

And maybe 15 million? What do you think?

34 replies, 1162 views

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Reply I'm thinking Biden will have to win by 10 million votes (Original post)
bluestarone May 2020 OP
Loki Liesmith May 2020 #1
jimfields33 May 2020 #2
bluestarone May 2020 #4
jimfields33 May 2020 #7
tblue37 May 2020 #18
bluestarone May 2020 #22
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #11
Blue_true May 2020 #28
J_William_Ryan May 2020 #3
bluestarone May 2020 #6
mwooldri May 2020 #5
bluestarone May 2020 #8
PoliticAverse May 2020 #9
Under The Radar May 2020 #10
DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 #12
Midnight Writer May 2020 #13
abqtommy May 2020 #15
tblue37 May 2020 #20
beachbumbob May 2020 #14
leftieNanner May 2020 #16
bluestarone May 2020 #17
uponit7771 May 2020 #19
Blue_true May 2020 #21
bluestarone May 2020 #24
SWBTATTReg May 2020 #23
bluestarone May 2020 #26
SWBTATTReg May 2020 #30
aikoaiko May 2020 #25
bluestarone May 2020 #27
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #29
aikoaiko May 2020 #31
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #32
beachbumbob May 2020 #33
Eid Ma Clack Shaw May 2020 #34

Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:15 PM

1. Nah.

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:15 PM

2. I think 5 million is that number I heard.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #2)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:17 PM

4. Maybe closer but Hillary won by 4 million i believe

I just want it to be fail-proof lol.

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Response to bluestarone (Reply #4)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:18 PM

7. I totally get that. Hillary was 2 million I believe.

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Response to bluestarone (Reply #4)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:41 PM

18. Just under 3 million, actually. nt

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Response to tblue37 (Reply #18)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:47 PM

22. TY so maybe 6 million will do it!

We gotta get them electoral votes!!

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #2)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:20 PM

11. 5 to 6 Million

Seems to be the number, based on a few pieces I've seen.
Provided, of course, that 10-15% of that is from states that were close in 2016, like WI, OH, PA.
Two big states get flipped and domination in the expected blue states & it's an electoral blow out.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #2)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:57 PM

28. 4 million likely gives Biden a victory. But 5 million would be nice. nt

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:16 PM

3. As long as he gets the 270 votes that matter.

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Response to J_William_Ryan (Reply #3)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:18 PM

6. yea that even worries me!

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:18 PM

5. Total number in the popular vote nationwide means diddly squat.

Just ask Al Gore or Hillary Clinton.

Electoral college is where it's at.

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Response to mwooldri (Reply #5)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:19 PM

8. yep

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:19 PM

9. He has to get 270 electoral college votes(*)

(* Or win in the House of Representatives in case no one gets 270).

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:19 PM

10. Need to vote as if he needs 200 million

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:21 PM

12. 2 points is the inflection point.

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:28 PM

13. He needs to win by at least 7%. That is in votes cast, not votes counted.

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Response to Midnight Writer (Reply #13)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:31 PM

15. And here I've always thought that it was the votes that were counted that are important. Or maybe

that's what you're saying. But I'm uneasy about who counts the votes and how...

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Response to abqtommy (Reply #15)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:42 PM

20. He's assuming at least some cast for Biden won't get counted, so Biden needs a well padded

buffer of votes.

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:30 PM

14. I hope 20 million margin and 400 electoral votes

 

along with a net 10+ in the senate, net +40 in the house and alls sorts of state and local democratic victories

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #14)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:33 PM

16. I like your plan!

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #14)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:33 PM

17. Wow i like your thinking here!

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #14)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:42 PM

19. THIS !!!! Crush em

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:46 PM

21. I think that you are way wrong.

Hillary's campaign made all types of strategic errors in Florida, IMO, and lost the state by less than 100,000 votes. It will be harder to win Florida this time, but if Biden runs a strategic campaign and has the right VP choice, he takes Florida, IMO.

In Biden has anything over 4 million votes more, he will like win in a rout, like President Obama did in 08 and 12.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #21)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:49 PM

24. Yea

I do feel better about Florida. Hoping Joe takes it there!

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:49 PM

23. So out of 66 +63 million votes cast in the last presidential election cycle, Biden, up by a 8% ...

lead over rump, would have 70 million votes and rump (129-70) = 59 million, a margin of 11 million votes.

Assuming that there's not an increase in overall voter numbers and the same percentages vote R vs. D (republican vs. democratic). Of course this is all conjecture. Personally, I think the margins will be greater in favor of Biden. Just a gut feeling, based purely on trump's massive unpopularity numbers.

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Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #23)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:51 PM

26. If fair and square Biden will kick ass!! But

We ALL know that it will be so crooked that we gotta win with HUGE numbers!!!

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Response to bluestarone (Reply #26)

Thu May 14, 2020, 07:20 PM

30. Exactly! Be safe!

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:51 PM

25. The popular vote matter so little to me. 270+ EC votes is that matters.



Biden could get 30 million more votes than Trump, but if they are in the wrong distribute we'll have 4 more years of Trump.


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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #25)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:52 PM

27. AGREE!

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #25)

Thu May 14, 2020, 07:02 PM

29. That Helps GOTV?

Sounds like green party "my vote doesn't count" rhetoric.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #29)

Thu May 14, 2020, 07:32 PM

31. Well, that's imaginative.


My point is that, talk of popular vote fails to keep the eyes on the prize as well-intentioned as it is.

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #31)

Thu May 14, 2020, 07:49 PM

32. The EC Is A Linked Outcome

Given a large enough margin, the EC will follow.
The 2 oddities recently are just that. Very tight popular vote margin, so the EC aberrated.
Get the lead up 3 million (6 Million vote win). The plausible ways of that happening obviate the EC countering the popular vote. (For instance, Biden isn't getting 2 million more votes in CA, NY, & IL gaining no EC seats. The probability of gaining that greater fraction of votes in states easily won in 2016 is a 1 or 2%. So, there's a 1 in 220,000 chance of that outcome.
Far more likely is that extra 3 million votes comes from states that were close & went Obama in '08 & '12.
You pretty cavalierly tossed out that 30 million vote number.
Could you provide any notion of the probability of that actually happening? What scenarios allow a 30 million vote wipeout and an EC loss? What assumptive probability would we assign to such a cosmic event? Or, the likelihoods of each of the series of events?
Your post does, IN FACT, have the ring of "votes don't matter" sirens. It doesn't take imagination to see that.

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #25)

Fri May 15, 2020, 06:59 AM

33. impossible for biden to get 30 million more votes than trump and NOT win the EC vote count

 

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Response to bluestarone (Original post)

Fri May 15, 2020, 07:57 AM

34. I have a feeling Trump and the GOP will win in a landslide

The reason for my fear is that he is going to cause a second spike in this virus which will be followed by a more comprehensive shutdown; a lot of people who KNOW the harm this thing can do will stay at home rather than expose themselves or their families while the Trumpian Heavenís Gate cultists will be queuing up wearing masks with mouth holes cut out so they can give their ruler free reign to do whatever he wants in his second (but possibly not final...) term.

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