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Tue May 12, 2020, 10:50 PM

What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead

What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead

By Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight

Filed under 2020 Election

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-those-new-senate-polls-that-have-democrats-way-ahead/

"SNIP.....

Before you read any further, let’s get one thing straight: It’s still pretty early to trust general-election polls. In addition to the small but significant error inherent in polls taken six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has made the fall political environment extremely uncertain. But some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution.

Those polls imply a Democratic wave of truly epic proportions. In the space of just two days last week, we got:

Two polls of Colorado: A Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Melanson survey giving Democrat John Hickenlooper an 18-point lead over Republican Sen. Cory Gardner and a Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver poll giving Hickenlooper a nearly identical 17-point lead over Gardner.

A Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver poll of Montana giving Democrat Steve Bullock a 7-point lead over Republican Sen. Steve Daines.

And a Civiqs/Daily Kos survey giving Democrat Cal Cunningham a 9-point lead over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina.


.....SNIP"

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Reply What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead (Original post)
applegrove May 12 OP
napi21 May 12 #1
OAITW r.2.0 May 12 #2
saidsimplesimon May 12 #3
saidsimplesimon May 12 #5
at140 May 12 #4
calguy May 12 #6

Response to applegrove (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 10:56 PM

1. You're right to view these polls as just this moment in time, BUT it also means that's the thinking

of those polled right now, and MAY not change much. If nothing happens to move the peoples opinions to DT & his compadres then those #'s will stick.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 10:59 PM

2. Wait 4 months.....nt

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 11:07 PM

3. My thanks to you and Nate Silver.

I am cautiously optimistic. It's a long and winding road to Election 2020.

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Response to saidsimplesimon (Reply #3)

Tue May 12, 2020, 11:19 PM

5. Forgot to mention,

the DU thread about "counting chickens" from some years ago is a reminder of the perils

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 11:14 PM

4. Take it to the bank!

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 11:35 PM

6. Yes, it's still early

But it's much better to be ahead than it is to be behind in those Senate races.
Bottom line: Take nothing for granted.

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