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Wed May 6, 2020, 05:33 PM

Economist/YouGov Poll

Hi there-

This poll shows that Biden holds a 4 point edge over Trump (46% to 42%). How on earth is it that close?

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Arrow 9 replies Author Time Post
Reply Economist/YouGov Poll (Original post)
idziak4ever1234 May 2020 OP
Amishman May 2020 #1
idziak4ever1234 May 2020 #2
VMA131Marine May 2020 #3
idziak4ever1234 May 2020 #4
Yavin4 May 2020 #8
BGBD May 2020 #5
ooky May 2020 #6
Yavin4 May 2020 #7
Sugarcoated May 2020 #9

Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 05:43 PM

1. Rally around the flag effect

It's actually pretty damning that Trump hasn't had much of a boost.

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 05:52 PM

2. Ok. Thanks!

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 07:13 PM

3. Never just look at one poll ...

Look at all the recent polls. That way you can see if that one poll is an outlier or a continuation of a trend. Donít forget the importance of margin of error. Are all the recent polls within each otherís MOEs? The poll number thatís reported (the mean) is the most probable level of support but for a standard probability distribution the likelihood the mean represents the actual level of support is only 40%.

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Response to VMA131Marine (Reply #3)

Wed May 6, 2020, 09:39 PM

4. Wow! Thank you!

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Response to VMA131Marine (Reply #3)

Wed May 6, 2020, 11:16 PM

8. See my post #7

Biden's average lead in the polls this month is 5.5%

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 11:01 PM

5. The average of polls

 

has Biden at about +6. That's been stable for a year. Also, Trump level of support and disadvantage in polls puts him in the worst shape for reelection of any incumbent President since Hoover.

As was pointed out very effectively above, Trumps support is sitting at around 40%. That's awful for an incumbent when you consider that incumbents tend to be at a disadvantage among undecided voters. That stands to reason since if you are undecided you likely aren't very impressed with the incumbent, so voting for a change is an understandable position. Undecideds will usually break 2/1 against the incumbent, so if you are looking at a poll that is 40 - 45, that's more like 45-55, third party voters notwithstanding.

Also, consider that in 2016 Trump won among voters who had negative opinions of both candidates, and he won by a lot. This time around, Biden is leading with this group, and it isn't all that close either.

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 11:08 PM

6. What's holding him up in polls has to be just about all ideolgic/wedge issue voters at

this point. Who would be dumb enough actually vote for what HE is doing? It's guns, socialism and other such nonsense.

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 11:12 PM

7. Look at the average of the polls. Don't just look at one poll.

This is the 4th poll this month. Biden's average lead this month is 5.5% which is in keeping with his national average for the past 3 years.


Past 3 years of polls show a consistent Biden lead:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 11:22 PM

9. Blue wave coming

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