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Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:20 AM

Why I think that petulant child states re-opening won't be successful

Note: not every item will apply to every business. Some may be a big deal, others not at all. Just some morning thoughts.

1) What percent of the population is raring to go back and sit in a crowded restaurant or bar? Enough to sustainably keep it in business from here on out? Is 50% of an eatery's former throughput enough to keep it afloat? People are getting used to cooking and eating at home more - how many of them are just craving a Bloomin' Onion so much that they'll risk COVID to get it? How many past workers are going to show up for a call back, making sub-minimum wage, a fraction of their former tips, no benefits and dealing with a bunch of non-mask wearing, loud, nobody-tells-me-what-to-do, spittle-spewing COVID-carrying clientele? Some will - they won't have a choice - but others, and a lot of the former customers - will view it like playing Russian Roulette.

2) Will the business insurance industry balk at continuing coverage for businesses that are knowingly putting their workers and patrons at heightened risk? We've seen churches get their policies yanked for defying stay-at-home orders. Will it be different for businesses now that there won't be an official stay-at-home order, or will the insurance companies rely on their own definition of risk? That is one industry that's probably not doing too bad right now, so why ruin a good thing by getting saddled with about a billion new claims and litigation possibilities?

3) Are airlines going to magically go back to a full roster of flights that are going to be full? Who's going to want to jet off to (or out from) one of these states if they don't feel safe from getting sick by sitting in an airplane for N hours? The majority of workers at Atlanta-Hartsfield won't be going back to work any time soon.

4) Gyms - see restaurants. "Hey, hon. Look how ripped I am. Make sure the mortician takes my shirt off when he gets my casket shots so everyone can see my lily-white six-pack." If your business involves packing a bunch of people in an enclosed space, you better think twice about how awesome re-opening is going to be. Will it make economic sense to pay all of those fixed costs that being open requires, for 5 or 6 numb-nuts a week to wander through your place, cough on you, and walk out?

Anyway - just a few examples. Plus, the amount of time for these snap re-openings and meager operating levels to really do anything meaningful for the economies of the participating states will be WAYYYY longer than the amount of time it'll take for COVID-19 to come back to life, worse than before, because there are so many more people running around that carry it. The number of asymptomatic carriers, at least at this point, has never been higher. So, some states let the genie out of the bottle, put themselves on a path to almost certainly overwhelm their hospitals, at which point mortality goes way up from the comparatively low level it is now. Then they hem and haw for a while, trying to not look like the idiots they are, and ultimately have to shut the whole thing down again, with what gain? They probably just hastened the death of a lot more businesses that had to add to their woes the cost of a re-opening and re-closing, with a populace that's sicker than ever before and a medical system at or beyond its breaking point. I'm failing to see the obvious gain in all of this.

What the ignorant, impatient and immature don't get is that, when you make a decision to radically amp up your exposure to other people, it's not just yourself that could suffer the consequences. It's your spouse, your aged parent, your kids, the kid at the tire shop, the Hooters waitress, etc, etc. Silent carriers are much worse than those with symptoms because they're impossible to identify and they behave like they're healthy, and interact how healthy people would, but they're really like lawn-sprinklers of contagion. Dumb, selfish people don't get this and never will, unfortunately.

Off to work.

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Arrow 45 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why I think that petulant child states re-opening won't be successful (Original post)
zonemaster Apr 2020 OP
eleny Apr 2020 #1
Botany Apr 2020 #2
rso Apr 2020 #3
patphil Apr 2020 #4
Scarsdale Apr 2020 #10
treestar Apr 2020 #5
Thekaspervote Apr 2020 #34
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #37
global1 Apr 2020 #6
Hugin Apr 2020 #7
Solomon Apr 2020 #16
rzemanfl Apr 2020 #8
thucythucy Apr 2020 #9
Scarsdale Apr 2020 #13
Solomon Apr 2020 #18
Harker Apr 2020 #11
SWBTATTReg Apr 2020 #22
Harker Apr 2020 #24
SWBTATTReg Apr 2020 #25
Harker Apr 2020 #30
SWBTATTReg Apr 2020 #36
Harker Apr 2020 #39
SWBTATTReg Apr 2020 #41
BSdetect Apr 2020 #12
Scarsdale Apr 2020 #15
IronLionZion Apr 2020 #14
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #38
IronLionZion Apr 2020 #40
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #42
IronLionZion Apr 2020 #43
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #44
rzemanfl Apr 2020 #17
machoneman Apr 2020 #19
leftieNanner Apr 2020 #20
SWBTATTReg Apr 2020 #23
in2herbs Apr 2020 #21
OMGWTF Apr 2020 #33
More_Cowbell Apr 2020 #26
mozan Apr 2020 #32
wiggs Apr 2020 #27
pecosbob Apr 2020 #28
KS Toronado Apr 2020 #29
barbtries Apr 2020 #31
Thekaspervote Apr 2020 #35
aikoaiko Apr 2020 #45

Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:23 AM

1. I can see some protesters turning this on its head with lawsuits

Trying to sue the owners of crowded venues if they fall ill from c-19.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:23 AM

2. "Why I think that petulant child states re-opening won't be successful?"

This! Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina Move to Reopen as Hot Spots Emerge

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142475432

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:35 AM

3. Reopening

Superb analysis.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:37 AM

4. I agree with your assessment.

Businesses aren't going to embrace the idea of opening with no assurances as to health and availability of both staff and customers.

Without testing, it certainly is a game of Russian Roulette.
Trump's base may be dumb enough to buy into this, but you only have to look to the meat packing plants in South Dakota and Iowa to see how dangerous this "blind faith" kind of opening will be.

The virus is an apolitical, equal opportunity infector. Given the chance it will just continue to do what it does best; make people sick.

Why hasn't Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to produce enough tests to put people's minds at ease?

That is the real question.

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Response to patphil (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:30 AM

10. Well, everyone knows how

crazy tRump is about anything containing the word "Russian" We should call these instigators for early re-opening what they are - REPUBLICAN voters.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:40 AM

5. And why don't they get that without the shutdown

the shutdown was going to happen anyway because of sick people? South Dakota was not under shutdown. People in the meat plant got sick in such numbers that they shut it down. So we were just shutting down before it happened due to illness itself, to prevent it from spreading for enough to shut everything down because of it.

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Response to treestar (Reply #5)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:19 PM

34. Exactly!

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Response to treestar (Reply #5)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:39 PM

37. The Same With Negative Economic Impact

These idiots thinking 200,000, or 1 million, or 8 million people wouldn't be huge in an economy that's 70% consumer spending is mind-numbing in it's delusion.
Let's use "doctor" Drew. 2-3% mortality. Using the middle of that range, it's 8 1/2 million dead.
70% of 2.5% of consumers is a negative 1.75% hit on GDP. They can't consume if they're dead.
Now, add in the 6 people that were close to each of those 8+ million. We've got 50 million more who have direct reason to be afraid to fully resume normal life.
The negative effect on the economy will be enormous.
They seem to think that 8 million dead won't be bad for the economy, but they're willing to sacrifice those people for the economy.
Bltheringly idiotic.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:43 AM

6. You Captured The Perils Of Re-Opening Very....

succintly. You looked at it from multiple perspectives (i.e., establishment owners; their employees; customers; insurance companies; lawyers; those of us at risk of catching the virus; the health professionals that will have to deal with the aftermath; etc) and laid out the negatives so maybe even Trump could understand.

I'm not sure Trump will understand it though as he's only focused to get re-elected and shift blame unto others.

These Red State Govs are in for a rude awakening. They better be ready for the onslaught of new cases and deaths.

Everyone should read your post!!! Thank You!!!





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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:46 AM

7. With the corresponding lack of testing and reporting of COVID stats...

It'll be triumphantly be declared a success-by-definition.

All these goons have is hubris. We'll know better, but, nobody will call them on it.

SNAFU.

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Response to Hugin (Reply #7)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:40 AM

16. Yep. They will say it's working

They will lie and say the economy is taking off like a rocket.

You can order that businesses can open but you can't order people to patronize them.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:03 AM

8. Oh no! Not Hooters waitresses!!!!!!! Excellent post. K&R n/t

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:04 AM

9. You're right, of course, but on point 2

Trump is trying to blunt this by offering blanket immunity so that no corporation can be sued by anyone alleging COVID 19 related injury:

https://democraticunderground.com/100213324010

I don't think it'll work, but the effort is underway to insure that workers bear the brunt of all the suffering to come.

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Response to thucythucy (Reply #9)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:35 AM

13. It is the gop way,

deflect any blame from themselves. None of them can even step up and apologize for foisting the orange ass on this country. They should all go down along with him. The gop is responsible for this nationwide disaster, along with tRump.

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Response to thucythucy (Reply #9)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:41 AM

18. I don't think he has the power to do this. Immunity from lawsuits is a legislative matter.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:31 AM

11. Every day at work I see dozens of people

who cheerfully risk their health to buy candy and chocolate, and cheap Chinese lawn ornaments.

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Response to Harker (Reply #11)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 12:25 PM

22. Sadly, and yours too! Be safe and careful (if you're a retail worker). My SO is, I fear for them..

daily.

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Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #22)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 12:39 PM

24. Thank you. I appreciate that.

I work at a retail pharmacy store, but practically all of the essential purchases are from the pharmacy itself. The store part does sell supplements, etc., but it's mostly junk food and lottery tickets that bring in the customers.

I protect myself and others as best as I can through distancing and hygiene, but between the unconcerned, the dismissive, and the hoaxers, it's an exhausting uphill slog.

My best to you and yours.

LIBERATE THE WHITE HOUSE!

P.S. My wife works in an upstate NY hospital, on temporary duty checking everyone's temperature as they enter. I'm more concerned about her than I.

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Response to Harker (Reply #24)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 12:53 PM

25. My sincere appreciation goes to both of you, in serving, to me, you, your wife, and my SO are...

the true heroes of the day, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

I recall seeing the medical worker block traffic when they were protesting, and the lady stuck her dumb ass out the window (pardon the language) and then proceeded to berate the medical worker.

She actually yelled at him and told him to go back to China. She did this to a medical worker. She proved by far who the idiot and criminal is in that scenario. I got a funny feeling that she's going to come down sick, and ironies of ironies, it would be that particular medical worker, along w/ his coworkers, will attempt to save her life (the idiot lady).

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Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #25)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:12 PM

30. Dammit... you're bucking me up.

I always figure if I go down selling a thermometer rather than a bag of Reese's Pieces, it'll be okay.

I lived 50 years near Denver before we moved east, and I cried like a sheep watching that young man stand our ground, masked and with arms folded in determination, taking that ignorant fool's abuse.

Thanks, Reggie. My name's Terry. I'm going to update my profile now.

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Response to Harker (Reply #30)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:31 PM

36. A pleasure to meet you, Terry. Take care of yourself and yours, and literally (and I don't ...

have to tell you this, you already know this) watch out for the idiots.

Note, we all know who the 'idiots' are. Sadly, these idiots can actually sicken and/or kill people with their actions.

It used to be fun laughing at the idiots, not anymore. A sad thing to watch, actually, to see people put their lives on the line, how little do they value their lives as well as those of their families and friends.

Again, be safe out there in retail land, and just walk away, and protect yourselves (that is what I tell my SO when at work at Home Depot) to just walk away, when an idiot is being unsafe and ignorant around them.

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Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #36)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 02:00 PM

39. Will do.

Luckily, many idiots are identifiable from a safe distance... I'll just do my absolute best.

Thanks again! Off to work now with a better attitude than yesterday.

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Response to Harker (Reply #39)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 02:18 PM

41. And a thank you again, for your service. Again, the job you people are doing in such ...

circumstances is heroic, and beyond the pale.

When my SO gets home, I truly know how amazing they are, in holding themselves up, their spirits up, etc., and still have the energy to go on.

It gives me a measure of strength and courage that I haven't seen in a lot of our so called leaders. Take care, my friend.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:33 AM

12. drump is determined to multiply his disaster infinitely

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Response to BSdetect (Reply #12)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:37 AM

15. He probably thinks

only democratic voters get this virus. After all, most of his supporters are wealthy country club members.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:35 AM

14. Get back to work you lazy liberal socialist bums!



The truth is somewhere in between. Some folks will do those things. Some will continue to stay home or social distance as much as possible. There is plenty of in between as it won't be standard across the board.

Allergy season is also a factor with people like me sneezing and coughing all over you. Thankfully I can work from home, so I will continue for a bit longer.

Smart (blue) states will do it in a planned iterative process where they collect data and adjust guidelines accordingly to see what works. Idiotic (red) states will just go all out and peak the curves. We're seeing a lot of that in Georgia, Florida, and others that have lots of cases in their rural areas and no hope of flattening the curve. These astroturf protests don't help.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #14)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:41 PM

38. I'm Retired

Do I have to go back to work too?
Gee, that doesn't seem fair!

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #38)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 02:01 PM

40. Well professors have brainwashed our young people and ruined our society

so maybe not you

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #40)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 02:23 PM

42. Whew!

Had me nervous. Truth be told, I was only an occasional professor. The screen name comes from a very old AOL mail address assigned by a school in the Chicago market.
Mostly I ruined minds in industry.
My brainwashing efforts at college was only a part time gig, with grad students!

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #42)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 03:53 PM

43. Part time with grad students is enough damage already




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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #43)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 04:03 PM

44. I Plead Guilty

Especially in industry.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:40 AM

17. Nonetheless-


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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:43 AM

19. Good examples, some of which I have also thought about.

Take that state, SC I believe, that allows gyms to open, nail salons and barber/women's hair care to immediately re-open, but not bars and restaurants. Now think about how close one has to get to receive any hair or nail care? At least a bar could space seating 6' apart as could restaurants (2 only per table, tables 6' apart. How stupid to allow services where touching the other person literally fac tof ace is allowed as is sweaty gyms where folks exhale air in far greater quantities than someone resting at ease.

Well I swear whatever winger idiot government officials in red states who thought up these loosened restrcitons...they could not have picked worse services/businesses if they tried!

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Response to machoneman (Reply #19)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:58 AM

20. Kemp in Georgia did this too

And Stacey Abrams has called him out for it.

My hope is that these choices by R Governors will cause a landslide and wipe out a lot of Republicans in the next elections - country wide.

I can dream, can't I?

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Response to leftieNanner (Reply #20)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 12:27 PM

23. They will cause a landslide but not in the manner you mentioned, but sadly, in number of ...

increased deaths! An idiot is born every minute, I swear.

Be safe!

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 12:21 PM

21. And we're supposed to negotiate and reconcile our differences with these imbeciles? Not me.

Others can take the high road, I am taking other avenues.

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #21)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:18 PM

33. When they go low, we kick them in their damn faces!

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 12:55 PM

26. These states don't want to pay unemployment

To the most needy employees. And these states don't want their business landlords to suffer. I saw an interview with the owner of a Georgia hair salon who said that now that she *can* open her salon, she has no leverage with her landlord to get any kind of a concession on rent.

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Response to More_Cowbell (Reply #26)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:16 PM

32. idiots

At this point i consider people who are not wearing a mask a Enemy Combatant. What they could carry is deadly to me, i have a heart condition/copd/ brain anurism ( a high fever well pop it for sure), so i well respond with deadly force if they come near me.
you can't fix stupid...

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:07 PM

27. Every business that doesn't open becomes fodder for the WH to claim that the economic

collapse isn't Trump's fault. And every governor that doesn't open his/her state becomes a scapegoat. Their best hope is that most businesses and states refuse to open, thereby keeping the death count lower and providing the WH and Fox with excuses through November and beyond.

Of course, this is easily countered, if pundits, dems, and journalists focus on it but that doesn't stop 30% of voters from believing it.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:11 PM

28. If corporations are indemnified against requiring their workers to return to the job

it would be time for a nationwide general strike IMO.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:11 PM

29. When in the HELL

are we going to see our politicians insist on everyone wear a mask in public? Countries with the lowest infection rates per population require this. Want to get back to work and see all businesses open back up, then call/email all your politicians....city/state/national.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:16 PM

31. sadly,

what i think will sink it is a spike in cases, and deaths.

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:22 PM

35. yes! How many here on DU are chomping at the bit to go out to a crowded bar or eatery?

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Response to zonemaster (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:13 PM

45. Its about 2 things, I think, reducing harm to state budget and appeasing Trump/Trumpers


The budgets will be slashed, but if he can claim fiscal responsibility by slashing the least, that's a Kemp win. I work for the state and there haven't been any discussions of furloughs yet and there are only 2 months and 10 days left in FY20. Still could happen at a drop of the hat, though. I expect big furloughs in FY21.

Also, appeasing Trump himself may have positive consequences for Kemp personally, but maybe the state if Trump reward GA. And of course Trumpers love this kind of poorly thought out bravado of a policy.

When you say it won't be successful in the terms you describe -- probably yes.

But those terms may not be Kemp's goal.

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