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Thu Apr 16, 2020, 04:58 PM

Why is there a big discrepancy on reported US deaths?

MSNBC says there are now a reported 2,000 more than what CNN is showing on graphics.

10 replies, 612 views

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:04 PM

1. There is no "standard" way to report them...

The deaths could be reported as flu, pneumonia, heart attack, etc. Often the dead haven't been diagnosed with anything, and complete autopsies are rare.

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Response to TreasonousBastard (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 17, 2020, 06:53 AM

9. also issues with where they are counted

If old man Jim has a house in NY, a summer house in FL, and dies in a hospital in NJ - which state counts the death?

There has been discussion on this in my area, as PA only counts state resident deaths and says their home state should count them. Other states have other standards.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:07 PM

2. Shouldn't the CDC or WHO develop a standard way.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 17, 2020, 06:55 AM

10. Yes but CDC will not report statistics they are horrible

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:08 PM

3. Worldometers is my go to. They have us at over 34,000

They are usually ahead of the curve. Mainstream news is always behind IMHO.

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Response to gibraltar72 (Reply #3)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:10 PM

4. I like that web site too. The China numbers are a joke.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:10 PM

5. Lower numbers are good for tRUMP but for the rest of us not so much...

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Response to abqtommy (Reply #5)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:13 PM

6. Their early estimates were PURPOSELY overestimated.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Apr 16, 2020, 05:50 PM

7. Well, there is the CDC's count and Worldometer is also pretty comprehensive.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Fri Apr 17, 2020, 06:06 AM

8. Changes in United States Data following the new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition

Perhaps it's this:

Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [source]

This change is a further example of one of the many reasons why the label "confirmed cases" (used by some to designate total cases) is incorrect (see definitions for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label "Total Cases." Canada is another example where the "total number includes publicly reported confirmed and probable cases [source]

On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source].

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

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