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Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:21 AM

orange asshole's base starting to peel off the wall? Latest adjusted Rasmussen - 37% approve!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

538 site - scroll down past the scatter plot and look at the adjusted approvals. I guess he should keep doing his live teevee snakeoil show - seems to be working (for us!)

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Reply orange asshole's base starting to peel off the wall? Latest adjusted Rasmussen - 37% approve! (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Apr 2020 OP
Botany Apr 2020 #1
NRaleighLiberal Apr 2020 #2
Botany Apr 2020 #8
Baitball Blogger Apr 2020 #11
TwilightZone Apr 2020 #6
Journeyman Apr 2020 #7
Walleye Apr 2020 #10
alterfurz Apr 2020 #9
oasis Apr 2020 #3
Hoyt Apr 2020 #4
TwilightZone Apr 2020 #5
Golden Raisin Apr 2020 #12

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:27 AM

1. According to one of my late father's friends ... political science prof ... Trump has a 25% base ...

Last edited Sat Apr 11, 2020, 09:31 AM - Edit history (1)

... that will never go away. However Trump's handling of the C-19 Pandemic is the greatest
fuck up in history and if we get an honest vote he should lose every state.

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:29 AM

2. THIS, my gardening pal!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #2)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:42 AM

8. Some of Trump's dumb ass white red neck base will go away when their family members die,

they lose their jobs & their life savings, and maybe just maybe when they learn that Trump &
Kushner have been grifting off of the C-19 ever since they learned about it. But to Trump's
25% base they will almost always love him because he gave them the go ahead to use the
word n****r again in public. Every time Trump does that little OK sign with his right hand he
is giving a White Power gang sign.

And i am serious Trump's handling of the C-19 virus outbreak is the biggest fuck up in the
history of the world. Up until Sept. 2019 an international agency had a lab and people in
Wuhan China looking for coronaviruses that might cause pandemics. Trump shut it down
because it was "the black guy's" idea.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #2)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 09:11 AM

11. My Facebook Pal too.

I got up at four in the morning for no good reason and checked into Facebook and saw her reply to an earlier PM. She said something like, oh, what a good thing Trump did to shut the border with China. This REALLY could have gone wrong, she says. We'll fix everything by coming together. And there will be places that will be safe to open. So my reply at five in the morning, because it took that long to write:

You all stay safe, as well. And Karen, that ban was only for Chinese Nationals. Americans were allowed to travel to the States from China during that period. At least 300,000 came through in a month during that time. You can't contain a virus that way. It does not discriminate.

So, yes, we have to be aware that politics is playing a role in how we battle this virus. It's the Republicans who think exceptions can be made, as if there are safe pockets in this country. We will take the blow from that flawed thinking.

For example, a relative of mine lives in Atlanta so what Republican Governor Kemp does, affects me personally. Kemp is shutting down Atlanta, but opening up the beaches. And this is after it was publicly known that asymptomatic carriers can pass on the virus.

Our Republican Governor, De Santis, is not far behind him with this logic, because it is Trump's policy. They are supporting Trump. So, it's political.

And God help us, our surgeon general is a Mike Pence's hand picked puppet. Jerome Adams broke my heart when just last week he said that they only now realized that the virus was spread by asymptomatic positive carriers of the virus. C'mon Karen. We all knew that crucial bit of information back in January. Why is our surgeon general saying it now, if not to give Trump cover for all the delayed mistakes made over the facemasks?

And mistakes were indeed made. We all know the reason why they did not recommend facemasks in the beginning. It was because there were none available for us to purchase. And we know why that is. Under the eyes of Pompeo and the State Department, Chinese Nationals were allowed to come into this country and wipe out our supply. My own Lowes' guy told me that a Chinese man came and purchased 30,000 boxes from the home office. They were everywhere on this globe doing the same thing in every other country. There is a very specific article on the subject from a Sydney paper, because Australia was trying to obtain them for their people to protect them from the smoke from the wild fires, and they were short in supply. If you want links to the articles, let me know.

Here in the U.S., there's an official press release from Pompeo promoting the fact that the State Department aided "private individuals" to donate and ship 18 Tons of PPS with the State Depts. approval. This happened first week in February. Our shelves were cleaned out by late January. None to be found in Lowes or Home Depot, and it wasn't because Americans were hoarding them, because the hoarding didn't begin until late February, early March. By then, there was little to be found.

There is no way to ignore the fact that politics is the reason we're having problems tamping down on this virus. Republicans keep looking to make exceptions for themselves, and those exceptions will affect the blue states. For example, it was a Tennessee doctor who contacted his buddy Republican Phil Roe, Congressman from Tennessee to repatriate the Diamond Princess passengers back to the U.S. Phil Roe pulled strings in the State Department to bring them in, against the CDC's advice. The sick passengers disembarked in Oakland, CA, where HHS workers greeted them without PPS. No facemasks. That's how California got their first wave of community spread virus.

We're going to be seeing waves like this each time exceptions are made. So, don't say we need to drop politics and come together, because that's not the message coming from the top. We are not coming together at all under this administration. Quite the opposite. Trump's decision to relinquish his federal role to procure and distribute PPS, dumping the responsibility in the lap of the States, is the opposite of coming together and a huge political mistake for him. He's playing politics with our tax dollars. He's not just relinquishing his proper role, he's competing with the States for supplies and confiscating PPS in order to distribute ventilators and facemasks to friendly states and cronies. Wow, Karen. That is just beyond criminal.

There are no safe pockets. People will always think they can take chances without affecting others. That's not how this virus works. This week, the red rural areas are beginning to get hit, and they have the least ability to treat people. Whoever writes this story of the socio-political mistakes made, will have plenty of data to work with.

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:39 AM

6. I think it's higher than 25%.

I think it's more like 35%. I think his floor is in that range. We may find out by November.

"if we get an honest vote he should lose every state"

Sadly, that's probably not true. There are states that he will win regardless. His net approval in Alabama, for example, is *still* nearly 30%.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:41 AM

7. There is the "crazification factor" which guarantees Capt. Covidiot a 27% approval . . .

The "Crazification factor," or "Keyes' Constant" is a neologism coined in 2005 by blogger John Rogers to refer to the portion of the electorate comprising the nuttiest of the wingnuts and the batshit crazy, or at least the most diehard partisans.

From "Rational Wiki":

Rogers was writing of the 2004 Senate election in Illinois:

”Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% crazification factor in any population."


Another factor in Obama's favor at the time that Rogers didn't mention is that the original Republican candidate, Jack Ryan, had been forced to suspend his candidacy after his divorce and custody records were released to the press, revealing that he had taken his former wife, actress Jeri Ryan, to various sex clubs (including, in at least one case, a bondage club) and tried to have her perform sex acts on him out in the open. Keyes was the GOP's last-minute replacement on the ticket after the sordid details of Ryan's divorce came out. So not only was it a normal candidate running against a clearly crazy opponent, but the crazy guy also had the baggage of the last guy's sex scandal following him, and had been drafted into the campaign with little time to prepare.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Crazification_factor

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Response to Journeyman (Reply #7)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:50 AM

10. Seven of Nine. We can thank her and her divorce deposition for having Obama

I’ve often thought of the irony of the Borg. Resistance is not futile.

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:47 AM

9. FWIW, just days before resigning, Nixon still had 28% approval

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:31 AM

3. Yummy!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:33 AM

4. Bout time he started sliding in Approval.

 

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:35 AM

5. In context, the adjustment looks like it might be a bit high.

RR no doubt tilts right, but 4 points lower than any other poll and 10 points lower than the A- Fox News poll seems pretty unlikely.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 09:27 AM

12. I trust voting booths over polls.

How many of them will continue to vote Trump and down ticket Republican? That is the true test for me.

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