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Thu Apr 2, 2020, 12:57 PM

An educated guess as to what the Corona Numbers Mean

I am not an epidemiologist, but I have been an armchair epidemiologist for years, reading the Center for Disease Control and Prevention MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on and off for years. If you want gruesome reality, this is a key source.

So what I am saying here is an informed and pretty ragged guess base on good sources.

In the USA the term, "confirmed case" means they tested positive. This probably means that they are either a member of the 1% or hospitalized. Since about 20 percent of cases are considered serious and serious means they were hospitalized, this means you can probably multiply the numbers of cases by five and get the number that have gone through the virus far enough to show or not show strong symptoms. Since that takes a few days, you can multiply the new cases by your favorite guess and add that to the five times the number of serious cases.

The reason the death rates look so terrible is that about half of the serious cases, or 10% of the infected, need help breathing and with that help breathing close to half will die anyway. My math is rough here but that gives about a 5% chance of death from this if it is managed well.

Before I end this with my sources of data, let my ask all of you to worship the ground the physicians who are dealing with this walk on. Evidence points to a likelihood that strong and repeat exposure makes this disease much harder to survive. They are not taking the risk of those of us hiding and spraying everything we touch. They are not taking the risk that the sociopathic idiots going to gatherings are taking. They are taking risks that are as yet unknown and quite scary. They are informed, brave and caring.

Here are three favorite sources for data.

First one is this quite rude doctor. He will tell you the truth and use horrible analogies and you will know more than the babbling idiots after you watch him. I can't stress this strongly enough. Follow, and share this guy or stay quite since you don't have a clue.

My second source is where you can track locations and gather data on regions of interest. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 This was provided by GIS and the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

My third source is good for comparing how well the various governments are managing things. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Evidence is pretty damn strong that MAGA is not working.

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Reply An educated guess as to what the Corona Numbers Mean (Original post)
PurgedVoter Apr 2 OP
hlthe2b Apr 2 #1
rzemanfl Apr 2 #2
marble falls Apr 2 #3
JCMach1 Apr 2 #4
Igel Apr 2 #5
genxlib Apr 2 #6

Response to PurgedVoter (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:00 PM

1. What is currently reported is case-fatality %-- NOT mortality rates.

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Response to PurgedVoter (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:03 PM

2. I will watch the video after I wash socks. n/t

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Response to PurgedVoter (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:31 PM

3. I like this guy. I like his approach. I honestly need to be educated as if I don't know a thing ...

'Cause as many of you all can testify, I really need an education.

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Response to PurgedVoter (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:32 PM

4. My father's cousin died at home

Extremely quickly... Did not even have time to get a test

Stats are going to be highly suspect...

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #4)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:46 PM

5. Stats are suspect.

Look at the news out of Italy.

At the same time, note the instance last week, I guess it was, where a death was added to Houston/Harris County (TX) numbers. Woman died. Respiratory distress killed here, the autopsy found. They ran a COVID test. She was positive, posthumously.

Won't happen all the time, but it happens at least some of the time.

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Response to PurgedVoter (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:53 PM

6. I am familiar with this presenter

As a bariatric patient myself, he is very well known in the community. He is loved by many but there is a sizable minority that think he is a quack. He is involved in a some multi level marketing scheme and sells a lot of crap online.

This seems to be well done and aligns with most everything I have seen elsewhere. Just be wary of him.

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