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global1

(25,168 posts)
Thu Apr 2, 2020, 11:56 AM Apr 2020

Trump's Failure To Call A Nationwide 'Stay At Home' Will Only Extend The Length of This Crisis.....

Aren't the experts telling him that his not calling for a nationwide 'stay at home' will just draw out the time we can get back to normal in this country?

It seems to me that to flatten the curve - the whole of the country must work to do that at the same time. Those states that haven't issued a 'stay at home' order will ultimately get hit. As they spike at different times in the future they will only extend the time that this crisis continues.

It seems like an easy enough concept to grasp. What doesn't he understand? Why aren't the experts getting through to this man?

He reminds me of a guy I used to work for. He would get suggestions from his management staff and wouldn't act on them when he should have. A couple of weeks later - he'd come out at a meeting and say - we will do this - only acting on something he could have done weeks before. The only difference this time - he made it look like the idea came from him.

Our company finally folded. Went bankrupt.

Cause - was the guy in charge - his inaction.

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Trump's Failure To Call A Nationwide 'Stay At Home' Will Only Extend The Length of This Crisis..... (Original Post) global1 Apr 2020 OP
Yet he takes full credit for the amount of people following it... lame54 Apr 2020 #1
Flattening the curve was a fantasy, a pipe dream, a political bill of goods. rocktivity Apr 2020 #2
It actually works the other way around. Pobeka Apr 2020 #3
Won't States That Are Late At Invoking A Stay At Home Order Each Peak At Different Times...... global1 Apr 2020 #4
Two things affect the peak-time arrival Pobeka Apr 2020 #5

lame54

(35,141 posts)
1. Yet he takes full credit for the amount of people following it...
Thu Apr 2, 2020, 11:58 AM
Apr 2020

And the govs have to go along with it or he'll screw them

rocktivity

(44,555 posts)
2. Flattening the curve was a fantasy, a pipe dream, a political bill of goods.
Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:26 PM
Apr 2020

Last edited Mon Apr 6, 2020, 06:27 PM - Edit history (4)

If social distancing and international travel restrictions had begun at the same time as the virus, it would have been possible to curb the number of people initially infected if not kept it out of the U.S. altogether. But we didn't start trying to flatten the curve until the number of cases was doomed to skyrocket.

Don't get me wrong: social distancing now certainly can't hurt. But without a vaccine, a cure, the ability to test everyone efficiently, or a healthy healthcare infrastructure, the virus is running the show -- and we may have simply have to wait until the number of cases burns itself out as quickly as it ignited.

We are now trying to outrun an opponent who was six inches from the finish line when the starting gun went off.


rocktivity

P.S. "Draw(ing) out the time we can get back to normal in this country" just might dovetail perfectly in Trump's re-election plans.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
3. It actually works the other way around.
Thu Apr 2, 2020, 09:27 PM
Apr 2020

If you delay preventive measures, the peak will arrive sooner than if you apply the measures immediately.

But the arrival of the delayed measures peak is higher and more concentrated which is what we are trying to avoid because we run out of ICU beds, respirators, doctors, therapists which means the mortality rate goes up dramatically for all the cases which now have no access to respiterators etc...

global1

(25,168 posts)
4. Won't States That Are Late At Invoking A Stay At Home Order Each Peak At Different Times......
Fri Apr 3, 2020, 02:08 PM
Apr 2020

downline - based on when they finally invoke the order? Won't that extend the length of the curve?

They're all not going to peak at the same time.

New York seems to be peaking first. Won't other states that invoked a stay at home after NY peak in the order that they invoked stay at home?

What am I not understanding here?

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
5. Two things affect the peak-time arrival
Fri Apr 3, 2020, 02:40 PM
Apr 2020

First, when the first infectious case(s) arrived. Somewhat determined by international travel sites, and then within national borders. That varies by state and affects the timing of the per-state curve

Second, how aggressive the social distancing measures are implemented and how quickly. For example, NY and WA probably were infected about the same time (major international airports), but the WA governor (Inslee) was faster and more aggressive imposing social distancing than NY (Cuomo), so WA will see the arrival of the peak later and *relatively* lower than NY.

States with somewhat less direct connections to international travelers will have a natural delay in the start of the local epidemic because the "seeding" of cases into their states is diluted/time delayed, if that make sense.

So your intuition is correct, there will be a range of peak arrival times for each state. It is not exclusively due to the social distancing measures and when they were implemented.

When I initially responded it seemed like your OP was indicated delaying imposition of social distancing meant delaying the peak. *all things equal*, it is just the opposite, delaying social distancing causes the arrival of the peak sooner.

Make sense?

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