New Polls And New Candidates Are Giving Democrats Some Hope Of Flipping The Senate
The topsy-turvy Democratic primary for president dominated political news for the first two-and-a-half months of 2020 and rightfully so, it was bonkers but now that its settled down, its time for us to check in once again on the other major political battle of 2020: the fight for the U.S. Senate.
Republicans started the cycle with the advantage, but Democrats have had reason for optimism of late. New polls have shown Democratic challengers ahead of GOP incumbents, the party is recruiting strong candidates, and, perhaps most importantly given the tight correlation between presidential and Senate voting, former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democrat who has polled the best against President Trump, has become the partys likely presidential nominee.
The most likely outcome is still that Republicans maintain control of the Senate, though perhaps with a reduced majority: The status quo favors them, and most of the states where the Senate will be decided lean red. (As a refresher, Republicans currently have 53 Senate seats to Democrats 47, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats, on net, to take control or three if they also win the vice presidency.) But Democrats have expanded the map to the point where they have a lot more pick-up opportunities than Republicans do, so they have a lot of upside.
The most competitive Senate races remain unchanged from late last year there havent been any significant developments in Colorado or Maine, for example, that have dislodged them from their too-close-to-call status. Instead, the biggest Senate news of the last couple months came in the longer-shot Democratic pick-up opportunity of Montana, where Gov. Steve Bullocks entry has shaken up the race. Bullock was considered to be the only Democrat who could put this red state in play, and his announcement caused nonpartisan handicappers to move the race from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-polls-and-new-candidates-are-giving-democrats-some-hope-of-flipping-the-senate/