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Fri Mar 27, 2020, 04:52 PM

What does post peak look like?

Is there anything good to read about that?

Iím not going to second guess what epidemiologists think. I have read there is a range of estimates and am guessing that peak will occur at different times. Iím curious about thing like

What does the other side of the peak look like? We were slow to lock down and people have been tightening up their isolation. Is it likely to be a slow decline or match the build up or something else?

What makes it the peak? How much does isolation vs immunity vs other factors play in stopping the increase?

At some point scientists will say itís ok to go out at least in some communities. Whatís needed in terms of random testing or other triggers that would cause us to quickly go back to lock down. Iíve read there could be multiple waves

What are the next best steps and what is needed? If we had antibody and infection tests readily available how would those be used? For example, if i knew I was immune and not infectious would that mean itís ok to be around or would that just make others more likely to inappropriately end isolation?

We are fortunate enough to be working from home. Weíre going to be very slow in ending isolation not just to avoid infection but to not risk infecting others.

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply What does post peak look like? (Original post)
Midnightwalk Mar 27 OP
gibraltar72 Mar 27 #1
Midnightwalk Mar 27 #4
uponit7771 Mar 27 #2
Midnightwalk Mar 27 #5
uponit7771 Mar 27 #6
Baclava Mar 27 #3
Midnightwalk Mar 27 #8
Ms. Toad Mar 27 #7
Midnightwalk Mar 27 #9
Ms. Toad Mar 27 #10
Midnightwalk Mar 28 #13
Marrah_Goodman Mar 27 #11
pat_k Mar 27 #12
StarryNite Mar 28 #14

Response to Midnightwalk (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 04:57 PM

1. Hearing too many stories about test delays

where someone went back to work awaiting test. Anecdotal but in my little burg they say an employee of biggest employer was sick enough to get test, but went back to work before results. Tests are showing us where we were. Not where we are.

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Response to gibraltar72 (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:18 PM

4. Seems like testing is critical

But this is the type of that that is easy for amateurs like me to get wrong.

Itíd be nice to start with what experts say.

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Response to Midnightwalk (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:00 PM

2. Looking at Wuhan it looks like people afraid of going outside

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:20 PM

5. That's where I think I'll be for quite a while

Unless say thereís testing available that says Iím likely already immune and also canít infect anyone else.

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Response to Midnightwalk (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:21 PM

6. +1, this will take months ... wait till it gets above 500,000 cases

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Response to Midnightwalk (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:01 PM

3. Got about a month to go before that becomes clearer, still climbing that wave

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Response to Baclava (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:27 PM

8. Agree partially

Clearly all the experts can do is project.

I believe nothing the whitehouse says.

But the experts probably known things like what theyíll be looking for and what testing would help.

For example, if they ordered enough test kits how much would that change the time we need to lock down? That is, the thought process might change what we do today to influence whether weíre locked down say 4 vs 8 weeks after peak.

At least I would he encouraged to know that was being worked on rather than the stupid everything will be fine by easter bs.

People are talking like itís over at the peak. Knowing what else is involved might clarify that it wonít be.

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Response to Midnightwalk (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:22 PM

7. Post peak there are likely to be waves.

Sort of like aftershocks after an earthquake.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:33 PM

9. If we end lockdown what do we look for

Last edited Sat Mar 28, 2020, 07:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Would we need to have enough ongoing testing to detect that lockdown should happen again? Should we lock down again if other communities see infection or hospitalization rates increase?

Iím not in a huge rush to get back out although it would be nice. Iím actually more interested in whether we have the right preparations like tests available when controls start to be lifted. Seems like there is a lot to do now even if that doesnít happen for say 8 weeks.

My ulterior motive is counter acting the impression that reaching peak means itís safer.

[link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf]

Edit to add link from ms toad. Thanks

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Response to Midnightwalk (Reply #9)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:39 PM

10. Here's a good source

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 07:49 PM

13. Thank you. Good information nt

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Response to Midnightwalk (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:40 PM

11. Post peak is when the number of infected starts to decline

However, unless we are testing much much more people we won't really know when that is happening.

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Response to Midnightwalk (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:36 PM

12. Here are some projections (assuming precautions remain in place)

Use drop-downs for state-specific

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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Response to pat_k (Reply #12)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 07:54 PM

14. Thank you!

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