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Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:36 PM

Don't let that ABC poll 49% Trump approval SCARE ya -- it's an outlier.

The press is running with it.

It is one of twelve top current polls at 538.

All of the others show him UNDERWATER.

The headline should be:

ELEVEN OUT OF TWELVE CURRENT POLLS SHOW TRUMP DISAPPROVAL HIGH





[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/|

27 replies, 1365 views

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Reply Don't let that ABC poll 49% Trump approval SCARE ya -- it's an outlier. (Original post)
Grasswire2 Mar 27 OP
DarthDem Mar 27 #1
Grasswire2 Mar 27 #3
jimfields33 Mar 27 #2
Grasswire2 Mar 27 #5
Wellstone ruled Mar 27 #6
Hortensis Mar 27 #9
ibegurpard Mar 27 #4
Quixote1818 Mar 27 #7
blitzen Mar 27 #8
sarisataka Mar 27 #10
Turin_C3PO Mar 27 #14
sarisataka Mar 27 #16
Turin_C3PO Mar 27 #17
Moostache Mar 27 #11
kysrsoze Mar 27 #12
Indykatie Mar 27 #13
customerserviceguy Mar 27 #15
LizBeth Mar 27 #18
Brainfodder Mar 27 #19
pat_k Mar 27 #20
Turin_C3PO Mar 27 #21
pat_k Mar 27 #22
Turin_C3PO Mar 27 #23
BGBD Mar 27 #24
Gothmog Mar 27 #25
kurtcagle Mar 28 #26
Gothmog Mar 28 #27

Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:40 PM

1. K&R for Visibility


This is the kind of thing that 538 does well - straight statistics.

Look at the link. *Rasmussen* has him down. Tells you all you need to know.

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Response to DarthDem (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:41 PM

3. yep

I check that link daily.

It's really irresponsible journalism (and I am a great protector of the press) to not put the ABC poll in perspective.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:40 PM

2. I actually hate it's abc.

Itís a heavily viewed channel especially at 6:30 news. They have more eyeballs at 6:30 then the 3 major cable news channels together.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:43 PM

5. they all run with that news for the day, at least

My favorite WH Correspondent, AP's Jonathan Lemire, just tweeted it. I tapped him on the head for it.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:44 PM

6. Notice that

trend for a couple of years. Polling has to be paid for by someone and one only has to look at who cut the check.

The RNC as well as Trump Reelection Committee are using PAC's to buy polling .

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:49 PM

9. Assuming no accident. Disney Media Networks was dirty in 2016

and is now. Don't do all those nice people at ABC the injustice of thinking it's all about money and power in amoral people. Some really do believe that what's good for their corporate owners and their own careers is good for America.

Bless their corrupt hearts.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:43 PM

4. Let it scare you

Make it motivate you to activate your less plugged-in friends and acquaintences

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:45 PM

7. It's a temporary bump like Bush got after 9/11 only Bush was at like 90%

If this is as big as his bump gets he is in real trouble the longer this drags on.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:47 PM

8. The media are a braindead herd. I've now seen countless stories on Louisiana...

having the fastest rate of increase in the world. That is based on one study made at U. of Louisiana-Lafayette a few days ago, a snapshot of a 24 period of some data. It is certainly not true now and probably never was. (Orleans Parish does, however, have the highest per capita death rate to date, assuming that the figures for other US counties are accurate.)

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:51 PM

10. I fear we have learned nothing

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #10)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 01:26 PM

14. What do you mean?

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Response to Turin_C3PO (Reply #14)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 01:46 PM

16. Whenever a poll comes out

That shows a result we at DU don't like, there is a rush to discount the results. The poll was poorly conducted, hacked results, Russians paid for it, Republicans paid for it, is false because the media wants it that way, and on and on.

Rather than discounting such polls, why not consider that maybe our preconceived ideas might not be 100% accurate. That these polls can guide us to opportunities where we need to increase our efforts to sway those middle voters who are still undecided. Convince them their vote matters and it is in their interest to vote Democratic.

If the poll is wrong, we have only increased our margin of victory, but if it is correct...

Sticking our collective head in the sand and only hearing that which we agree with is a good recipe to have the same results in November as last time.

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #16)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 01:55 PM

17. Yes, good points.

I do personally believe that his bump is real but temporary. That being said, we need to run like weíre ten points behind.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:57 PM

11. 4 out of 5 dentists agree....

Trump sucks balls and causes gum disease.

There. Now you can all legitimately say "Well, some people are saying that Trump sucks balls" ... or causes gum disease...your mileage vary...

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 01:01 PM

12. Remember * 43's rating right after 9-11. It didn't stay there

Weíre all watching him fuck this whole thing up on a daily basis. It just takes others longer to catch on.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 01:22 PM

13. Even Rassmussen Has Had Him Under Water For At Least a Week.

Rassmussen should be viewed as the best case scenario for Trump's approval given its strong Republican bias.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 01:34 PM

15. The checks haven't come out yet

Let's see what happens when that occurs. It may give Trump enough of a boost that he goes for more rounds of them as long as this lasts, at least until the election.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 02:40 PM

18. I am blown away that any is using these numbers as a good thing for Trump. under 50% in crisis

is a ridiculously bad number. In a time of crisis just barely going up from where is number hovers around by 5-7 points which is nothing. Still not getting over 50% is nothing for a crisis. These are numbers where previous Presidents sits when they are not doing well.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 02:41 PM

19. The media needs viewers, it's already done, but they need to keep you WORRIED/GUESSING WATCHING!

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:39 PM

20. NO. It should scare you.

This isn't just an outlier. I think it reflects are real up tick, and there is a logical reason for it.

Like it or not, this crisis is more likely to help DT than hurt him.

His "story" -- that his China ban kept the "Chinese virus" out and saved us from things being FAR worse -- is simple and easy to understand.

However bad it gets, a WHOLE LOT of people -- anyone who buys his story, and that won't just be his steadfast supporters -- will believe DT "saved us" from a worse fate.

The truth is more complex than that (timeline of failures here)

We -- purveyors of the truth -- are at a distinct disadvantage. Our "story" is a lot tougher to get across. A simple lie wins over a complex truth.

We can rail against it. We can explain why the travel ban was doomed from the start until we are blue in the face (no pun intended). Of course, they completely failed to do ONE thing to contain in the first, most critical, 7 weeks. By the time he issued his ban, it was HERE. But because they weren't testing, we have no numbers to PROVE this.

His story has more legs than ours.

And now, when all the precautions keep the numbers down, he'll say

"Look, it wasn't as bad as all those hysterical people said. We could have opened things up FAR earlier. It's the evil Dems in NY, CA, etc., who destroyed our economy with their lockdowns."


We can point at data showing that things were far worse in areas that refused to lockdown early, but once again, that requires some explanation, and you can bet the Republican noise machine with have lies and excuses to discount the data.

We have enough to fight against with their incredibly effective efforts to suppress the vote in "certain" areas through inadequate resources and other measures. If fall for the notion that DT is "toast" because of this, the sense of overconfidence will suppress voter turnout and guarantee his victory. (Just as the overconfidence that there was no way DT could beat Hillary suppressed turnout in 2016.)

Please listen! He is, and will remain, a formidable opponent with a very good chance at winning. It's up to us to turn out our vote in big, big, numbers to stop him.

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Response to pat_k (Reply #20)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:44 PM

21. A poll came out today

from Fox News which shows Biden beating Trump by 9%. Thatís huge.

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Response to Turin_C3PO (Reply #21)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:49 PM

22. Love to hear it, but...

... we have to be REALLY careful about sowing overconfidence. It suppresses turnout, Along with massive voter suppression, overconfidence that Trump didn't have a shot in 2016 further suppressed turnout and sent him to the WH.

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Response to pat_k (Reply #22)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:52 PM

23. I agree with that.

I always say run like youíre ten points behind.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:00 PM

24. if you asked me

if I approved of GWB on 11/03/2001 I would have said yes. If there had been an election in 11/04/2001 I would have voted for the Democrat.

Besides that as someone else said, getting a 5 or 6 point bump and still being under 50% during a huge emergency is not good. Before election day this phase of it in people's minds will be gone and the damage he is causing will be priced in.

I could see him at 37% approval by election day

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 11:33 PM

25. No, Trump is not going to suddenly become FDR

Why I am not concerned about trump's meager polling bounce



First, letís note that this increase in Trumpís approval is relatively small, given that weíre in the midst of one of the most monumental crises in American history.

In such extraordinary circumstances, the presidentís approval would normally be shooting up. At times like these, Americans are looking for comfort. They want to believe that the president and the government are in control.

When Lyndon B. Johnson took over after John F. Kennedyís assassination, his approval rating was 78 percent, even though he hadnít done anything yet. Likewise, Gerald Ford had a 71 percent approval upon taking office during Watergate; it didnít fall until he pardoned Richard M. Nixon. (Weíre using Gallupís historical data.)Ö.

And after 9/11, George W. Bushís approval soared to 90 percent. This is the historical pattern: In times of crisis, the presidentís approval will go up almost regardless of whether heís doing a good job or not.

So if in the midst of a public health nightmare and a horrific looming recession, Trumpís approval goes up by a few points, itís not exactly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.

Improvements in Trumpís approval will likely remain relatively constrained compared to those historical standards, because as everyone knows, weíre in a period of intense polarization. There are fewer so-called ďrealĒ independents (who donít actually lean to one party), and nearly all those who do associate with a party will never give thumbs up to a presidential candidate from the other party.....

Whatís more, built-in perceptions of Trump will remain. As Aaron Blake notes, the new Post/ABC poll showing Trumpís approval rising also finds a large majority ó 58 percent ó think Trump reacted too slowly to the crisis. If things go seriously south, then that built-in sense that Trump botched the early response could compound public blame going forward, particularly since heíll likely keep up with the depraved public spectacles.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 12:41 AM

26. The DJIA dropped 950 points today

The stimulus bill passed and was signed by Trump, and the DJIA dropped 950 points.

This is not to say that the ABC poll should not be seen as a warning about getting complacent, it should. On the other hand, if you look at the approval ratings during major crises, Trump's highest approval ratings are still below the lowest approval ratings of just about every other president since Eisenhower.

Personally, I wish he would lead - I'll even take a brief blip in the polls if he would actually do his goddamn job without trying to come up with an angle for him.

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Response to Grasswire2 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 09:24 AM

27. From Nate

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