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Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:02 AM

A sort of a straw poll here. Do you believe the infection/death numbers we are getting?

For the record, I don't.

Discuss.

38 replies, 1081 views

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Reply A sort of a straw poll here. Do you believe the infection/death numbers we are getting? (Original post)
Progressive Jones Mar 26 OP
Crunchy Frog Mar 26 #1
sheshe2 Mar 26 #6
misanthrope Mar 26 #2
I_UndergroundPanther Mar 26 #3
Skittles Mar 26 #4
greyl Mar 26 #5
sheshe2 Mar 26 #7
JustAnotherGen Mar 26 #8
AnotherDreamWeaver Mar 26 #9
bamagal62 Mar 26 #10
HarlanPepper Mar 26 #11
uponit7771 Mar 26 #12
Ms. Toad Mar 26 #38
DFW Mar 26 #13
pat_k Mar 26 #14
Celerity Mar 26 #15
duforsure Mar 26 #16
smirkymonkey Mar 26 #17
blueinredohio Mar 26 #18
luvs2sing Mar 26 #31
pansypoo53219 Mar 26 #19
Chainfire Mar 26 #20
ProfessorGAC Mar 26 #23
gibraltar72 Mar 26 #21
OhioChick Mar 26 #22
RobinA Mar 26 #24
Progressive Jones Mar 26 #25
Marrah_Goodman Mar 26 #26
The Velveteen Ocelot Mar 26 #27
LakeArenal Mar 26 #28
obnoxiousdrunk Mar 26 #29
The Genealogist Mar 26 #30
Arthur_Frain Mar 26 #32
liberalmuse Mar 26 #33
nitpicker Mar 26 #34
green88 Mar 26 #35
blitzen Mar 26 #36
Proud Liberal Dem Mar 26 #37

Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:06 AM

1. We already know that most people can't get tested.

I believe many are dying untested and unconfirmed. So no, not even remotely.

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Response to Crunchy Frog (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:10 AM

6. Dying untested and spreading the disease unknowingly.

The numbers are way to low. You don't test, then you don't know.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:06 AM

2. I believe we are getting the data that can be reported

Are we getting an accurate report on who has been infected? Of course not. We would have to subject every last soul for tests to find either the virus of its antibodies to know how many have contracted it.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:08 AM

3. I don't

People could be dying from it that never get tested
So I have my doubts.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:08 AM

4. ....



HELL NO

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:09 AM

5. To varying degree, depending on source.

You'd need to define what you mean by "numbers we are getting."

Numbers on MSNBC and CNN have lagged behind those in the links below by about 100 per day for the past several days.

https://infection2020.com/

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:12 AM

7. Don can't handle the truth.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:12 AM

8. It's higher

To include the deaths in Italy.

My husband's hometown - where much of his family lives and where we own a home . . . The death and infection rate is higher.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:28 AM

9. I think it's higher. Who is counting the folks who live alone and no one will find for a while. nt

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:34 AM

10. Well, I had symptoms for 12 days and I

could not get tested. So, I'm not in any statistics. I imagine there are a lot like me.
I'm hoping for an antibodies test.

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Response to bamagal62 (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:53 AM

11. Speaking of antibodies testing you might find this interesting



I’m not sure what to make of it. It’s another study among many, but interesting nonetheless.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:54 AM

12. +++NOT FROM THE RED STATES+++

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #12)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:20 PM

38. Please stop dividing on red v. blue

Divide on early, aggressive response (which incudes red Ohio) v. head in sand (which includes blue Louisiana).

While it is certainly reasonable to use response against specific red politicians in their re-election bids, the division as to early aggressive action is NOT red/blue.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 03:17 AM

13. I believe the following

At this point probably 75% of us in North America and Europe have been exposed to the virus.

Of that 75%, maybe 10% have shown some symptoms

Of THAT 10%, maybe 10% have shown, or will show severe symptoms

Of THAT 10%, maybe 5% will not survive.

I also believe that few of those infected will be tested, and that maybe a third to half of the fatalities will be correctly diagnosed as to cause of death.

I believe that more fatalities in Europe will be correctly diagnosed than in the USA because Republicans in the USA, due to Trump's foolish utterances, will be under pressure to say that everything is fine, and that people in their states who died from the virus might just as well have been run over by a truck, and a precise diagnosis will be slow (i.e. never) in coming.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 03:31 AM

14. I think reported deaths per day since about 3/10 in WA and NY are close.

More systematic testing was taking place in those states by about the 10th. By that point, I think it is safe to assume hospital admissions with COVID-19-like symptoms would have been tested, and if the case ended in death, it would have been be properly identified.

I'm not so sure about how extensively hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms were tested before that and have been assuming a number of COVID-19 hospitalizations that ended in death went unidentified in NY and WA prior to 3/10 or so.

The numbers in CA -- both cases and deaths -- are way off. They are not tracking in any coherent way (see quote below).

As far as other states. I don't trust any of their numbers. Systematic testing/reporting appears to be absent in a majority of them.

The states testing the most people per capital, WA and NY, have still only tested 40 to 50 people per 10,000. I think there are probably a lot more symptomatic people who have not been tested (either recovered already or just self-quarantined). Other states are waaayyy behind even those relatively low testing rates. Given such limited data, I have no idea how to even guesstimate. In particular, I think we have no f-ing idea how many undetected recovered people there are or exactly how may COVID-19 related deaths there have been to this point.

As far as currently active cases, about 70% of the nation, or 230 million live in a metropolitan statistical area of over 200,000 people. If I were forced to pull a number out of you know where, I'd say an average of 1 in 100 of these people, or about 2.3 million is either incubating or symptomatic. With a mortality rate of 1.5% (latest average I heard sometime last week), than approximately 34,000 of the currently infected wold be expected to die in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

__________________________
Regarding testing/reporting in CA, from an article in The Guardian:

California’s patchwork response to testing has also left it struggling to keep pace with the virus, and the state is now looking to establish a coordinated approach. At least 22 state laboratories, seven hospitals and two private outfits are conducting tests in California, but it remains hazy how testing at those sites is being tracked.

“We are cobbling together various approaches,” Susan Butler-Wu, an associate professor of clinical pathology at the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine, told the LA Times. “The whole thing is badly discombobulated ... I think 100% that the system is broken.”


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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 03:33 AM

15. Hell no, not for the US and not here in Sweden. We had a massive death spike yesterday and the

press didn't cover it for shit. We shall see what they do today.

So ironic that Sweden and the US are about as far apart in many ways as 2 western nations can be, BUT we are BOTH so fucked because of our two governments' handling of COVID-19. Polar opposite reasons, but same results, no shutdowns, lies and disinfo from the government and officials, pure ideology taking over. At least the US is testing as best they can. Here the duncey berks have stopped all comprehensive testing, even if YOU ARE FUCKING SYMPTOMATIC!

We are both more than likely well and truly fucked.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 04:02 AM

16. I believe some red state governors

Because of trump aren't reporting all of the ones for fear of him hurting their states if they do. Not the same with Democrat Governor's, and they are providing correct numbers.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 04:17 AM

17. No, I think they are grossly underestimated.

First of all, we don't have the proper testing equipment to tell if people are infected w/ this virus. Secondly, a lot of people could be dying from this who are written off as dying of the "flu" or "old age". I just don't trust what we are being told.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 06:11 AM

18. In Ohio they're not reporting unemployment numbers because Trump doesn't want

the public to know. So I doubt were getting the truth about the Trump virus.

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Response to blueinredohio (Reply #18)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:18 PM

31. I tend to believe Dr. Acton.

She says upfront that the numbers are just what they know and are not a true representation because we don’t have adequate testing. I also know a lot of people who know her, both personally and professionally, and they are unanimous in their respect for her and trust in her judgment.

I am pissed about the unemployment numbers, too, but I guess getting them weekly is better than not at all. You may definitely color me skeptical with this one.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 06:58 AM

19. death- mostly. infections? no, testing so low.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 07:28 AM

20. No one knows the real numbers

It is impossible to know because we were totally unprepared to address the issue. I believe that there was a determined effort to slow testing to keep the numbers down and morale up.

There is not doubt that the government will work to minimize the numbers to protect our "morale." Some months, or years after the event, there will be a better accounting, but it will be based on best estimates.

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Response to Chainfire (Reply #20)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 08:00 AM

23. That's What I Think Too

The deaths are a firm #. But, given the paucity of tests, the # of infections are guesses, some more educated than others.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 07:56 AM

21. Actually no I don't

I think that some are testing mostly health care workers. In Mi. I suspect we are testing only the people with every symptom because of a scarcity of kits. stats show us getting about 1,2 positive for every two tests. I don't believe Fla. numbers in the least. Also the delay in getting results shows us what it was 4 days ago.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 07:57 AM

22. No n/t

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 08:31 AM

24. My Thinking Is For

the US. I believe the death numbers. I believe the tested positive numbers. I don't think we have any idea how many people have been mildly sick or asymptomatic but would test positive. I think it would be a great help to know after this is over how many people have antibodies, but I doubt there'll do it, it would cost money.

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Response to RobinA (Reply #24)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:02 PM

25. I don't believe the numbers we are getting.

I believe that the death toll is higher, and The Beloved King of the Sty Dwellers
has clamped down in the info.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:04 PM

26. I do not think they are hidden

But I do think that due to lack of testing we will never know the real numbers of infected and/or dead.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:05 PM

27. Without much more testing we can't know the true numbers.

I think the reports we are getting from our state health department are accurate insofar as they indicate the numbers of people tested, hospitalized and deceased. But because so few people get tested we can't know how widespread it really is.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:06 PM

28. I never truly believe anything from the Administration

I never truly believe anything our current health care system announces.

I never truly believe anything I read on the internet.

I won’t believe the statistics when this is all over.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:09 PM

29. Yes I do.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:15 PM

30. I'd guess we are seeing a fraction in the reports.

Testing isn't being done nearly to the level it should. I'd also guess that certain state governors are playing politics so it will not destroy their party or their Dear Leader come November.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:18 PM

32. How can we have accurate numbers on the infection

when we don’t have any testing baseline? There is no data to draw from.

I believe the numbers of the dead reported in Italy, Spain, other EU countries are reasonably accurate. Whether all of those deaths are attributable to COVID19 isn’t 100% for me.

I don’t believe shit from Iran, Russia, N. Korea, etc. For obvious reasons.

12 months from now we’ll be discussing this in our usual polarized fashion, with half of us claiming our actions were completely justified, and that the other half is a bunch of un-manned-nancy boys for being snowflakes/reckless depending on which side of the argument you are on.

Of course 12 months from now we will have more factual data in the form of how many died.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:24 PM

33. They are much, much higher.

We're lagging in reporting deaths and infections in the US by miles.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:47 PM

34. How should deaths be reported if there are underlying conditioms?

One doctor might record it as a coronavirus death with cancer as a contributing cause.

Another doctor, the reverse.

The same for hospitalizations.

All we can know at this point is how many of the tested showed up positive when tested.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 01:57 PM

35. Almost certainly underreported significantly. Including deaths.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:13 PM

36. Well, Johns Hopkins is showing 46 Louisiana deaths, Baton Rouge newspaper says 83....

These are both recently updated numbers, and there has been a similar gap for several days.

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Response to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:16 PM

37. The numbers we have are the best we have based on the available testing

By no means are they fully accurate IMHO

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