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Wed Mar 25, 2020, 09:42 PM

13,250 new confirmed cases today...so far. We will pass China tomorrow

This is a best case scenario as we are significantly undertesting.

It is still growing exponentially.

I don't watch the fake dog and pony shows. Is mega orange asshole mentioning any of that????

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Reply 13,250 new confirmed cases today...so far. We will pass China tomorrow (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Mar 25 OP
IcyPeas Mar 25 #1
LisaL Mar 25 #2
Massacure Mar 25 #3
Ms. Toad Mar 25 #4
NRaleighLiberal Mar 25 #5
Ms. Toad Mar 25 #7
Ms. Toad Mar 25 #13
dweller Mar 25 #6
NRaleighLiberal Mar 25 #8
Ms. Toad Mar 25 #9
NRaleighLiberal Mar 25 #10
Ms. Toad Mar 25 #11
gibraltar72 Mar 25 #12

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 09:45 PM

1. Funny,

I don't recall the president of the United States mentioning that little fact.

In fact he thinks hes doing a great job.

He must've forgotten to mention that in between all his preening.

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Response to IcyPeas (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 09:46 PM

2. He will be able to declare we are #1 once we pass China.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 09:48 PM

3. China should insist the WHO call it the America virus or the NY virus

Because that is where the most cases are.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 09:49 PM

4. The growth has slowed down two days in a row, now.

Still exponential. But it had been growing faster then exponentially while the testing was catching up with reality.

And, even with the slowed increase, I still have us passing China tomorrow.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 09:51 PM

5. today grew faster than last 2 days, so far

noise, perhaps? impact more or less testing, day to day?

this graph

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:02 PM

7. I use a single source (worldometers)

Sort of like taking generics - they are each fine alone, but best not to flip back and forth. Worldometers has not yet finalized the numbers for today, but the number I expect to be the end of the day is only 11,000 more than yesterday.

I've got my numbers running out to the first week in May - yesterday's end of day number shrunk the final number a bit; today's halved it. And, for the first time in a long time my exponential curve was a better fit than the polynomial.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 11:45 PM

13. worldometers finally ended their day (later than usual)

The rate of growth still slowed a hair, but not as much as it appeared at their normal end of day time. I've now got just shy of 86,000 for tomorrow using the formula that has been most accurate.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:01 PM

6. i'm not seeing those #'s

at worldometer
we haven't passed Italy yet, but i suppose we could leapfrog both soon
😷

✌🏼

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Response to dweller (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:04 PM

8. worldometer runs behind this

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

but they all very daily at different times

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Response to dweller (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:05 PM

9. Tomorrow (even using worldometer's numbers)

Based on the best fit polynomial for tomorrow (from 2/27 to present) tomorrow's end of day total will be ~ 82,300 The best fit exponential puts it at 88,300.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:08 PM

10. I am thinking 86,250 for tomorrow

but in truth we are all saying the same thing - this is a growing catastrophe

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:10 PM

11. Our numbers have been very close.

You're using the technique I used for China (finding the daily multiplier). I've switched to finding the best fit curve over time. But - given that it's all depending on testing we're not doing, we're both pretty darn close.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 10:31 PM

12. What they said.

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