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Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:44 PM

We are about to break through 40,000 cases

The very best case scenario looks scary as hell.

7 replies, 609 views

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Reply We are about to break through 40,000 cases (Original post)
gibraltar72 Mar 2020 OP
greenjar_01 Mar 2020 #1
gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #3
NRaleighLiberal Mar 2020 #2
lapfog_1 Mar 2020 #4
NRaleighLiberal Mar 2020 #5
Wednesdays Mar 2020 #6
Roland99 Mar 2020 #7

Response to gibraltar72 (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:47 PM

1. Confirmed diagnoses

There are probably closer to 10x that in terms of cases, maybe more.

We will need antibody tests going forward to see who has had the virus already.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:49 PM

3. I agree with your guess.

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Response to gibraltar72 (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:47 PM

2. we are at 40770. my est.is 45-47K by days end

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:55 PM

4. I'm rather more pessimistic

50K today, 100K by Thursday.

All because, unlike China, we refuse to go into complete isolation.

The Italians finally did so... but they isolated into large multi-generational family units... where it was very likely that at least 1 family member was infected.

Italy looks like what happens if you just let the virus run wild and infect everyone.

The medical system is overwhelmed... and they start picking people to try to save.

I'm happy Cuba and Russia are sending doctors to Italy... but we should have been better prepared and it should be us leading the charge to fight this around the world.

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Response to lapfog_1 (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:58 PM

5. been tracking and using math

for over a week, each day is 1.3-1.4 X the previous.

very imprecise, but a surprising predictive fit so far

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #5)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 01:16 PM

6. I've been figuring it as doubling every 3 days

So far, that track has been holding steady.
Which means one million U.S. cases by April 7. Ten million by April 16.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 01:17 PM

7. 41,049 - 1:!7pm

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