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Fri Mar 20, 2020, 09:37 PM

Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof


Inan Dogan, PhD
Insider MonkeyMarch 20, 2020

Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000. We estimate that 80 thousand of the 2 million infected Americans will be hospitalized over the next 2 weeks. Thatís why we are short-term bullish on hospital stocks.

Thesis:

Everything I said about the Coronavirus COVID-19 in February happened, Now Iím telling you this:

Since my last few newsletters to you, I have updated our models, done more research and we now have better estimates.

Three parameter estimates are needed to predict the number of infections and number of deaths over the next 3 weeks: infection fatality rate, infection growth rate, and the number of days between initial infection and resolution (either death or recovery) of the infection.

1. We now estimate that the coronavirusís fatality rate is ~0.8%. This means 1 out of every 125 infected people will die. We know that almost all countries had problems with testing and identifying all infected people. There are two exceptions to this: South Korea and Japanís Princess Diamond cruise ship.

South Korea tested more than 320,000 people and identified 8652 infections. The total number of deaths was 94. This means South Koreaís case fatality rate is 1.09%. We believe there are still a considerable number of South Koreans who were asymptomatic and weren't tested. So, we estimate that the actual fatality rate is anywhere from 0.5% and 1%.

In early February the Princess Diamond cruise ship was quarantined in Japan after one of the passengers tested positive. This was a bad idea for passengers as a total of 712 passengers were eventually infected and 7 of these people died. As far as I know all 3000+ passengers of this cruise ship were tested, so we have a reliable dataset with pretty accurate number of infections and number of deaths. The case fatality rate on Princess Diamond is 0.983%. We know that the fatality rate is higher among older people. Assuming that the median age of passengers on Princess Diamond is greater than Americaís, which is 39, we can estimate that the new coronavirusí fatality rate will be around 0.8% in America (maybe a little lower, but this is a nice round number).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

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Response to yaesu (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 09:52 PM

1. If you add this to the estimates that about half of Americans will get infected within the year,

that is at LEAST one million dead Americans. One million dead.

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Response to RockRaven (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:12 PM

4. Good time to be a mortician? Or a mass-grave digger?

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Response to yaesu (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:00 PM

2. ok.

 

Isn't shit I can do about it. I mean, DU is becoming a doom and gloom shit storm. There are people from scientists to medical experts to industry to corporate entities that working 24/7 to mitigate damage. We have the best minds in our country. We will get through this as we have past challenges. The world has survived wars, pandemics and depressions. Even If this dudes stats are true- your likely not going to die. So, stay positive. What else can you do.

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Response to evertonfc (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:10 PM

3. So let's party! Only 1-2% of us will die in the next few weeks. 98% will be paying the price.

No way this will not leave a long-lasting mark on our psyches and economy.

Enjoy your life - assume you're one of the lucky ones.

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Response to erronis (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:19 PM

5. did I say that? Jesus Christ

 

You gotta have some hope. 1-2% of the population is not going to die. You know that. 1-2% off those infected might. What can we do? My point is I'm optimistic. Your not. That's fine. Stay scared but don't intentionally put words in my mouth.

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Response to evertonfc (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:25 PM

6. I'm also optimistic. I don't expect to die. And Jesus Christ is not part of my solution.


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Response to erronis (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:25 PM

7. Well yes, life must go on

In the past the black death killed 30-50% of entire towns, and life still went on. If we lose 1-3% of our population to this it will suck, but it's not something that will doom us all...Unless our reaction of shutting everything down triggers another great depression and that leads to anarchy/societal collapse.

Yes, people will die, no there isn't much we can do about it, accept that and keep living.

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Response to Calculating (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:30 PM

8. Apparently my emphasis on how we will "clean up" after this mass mortality was lost.

Many of our healthcare workers will have higher rates of mortality. How do we replace them?

Our crematoriums and burial plots will have an overload.

Our families will be dealing for years with the trauma of a country/world that couldn't handle this pandemic. We had been warned. We had knowledge.

Perhaps the most damaging after-effect will be how this will tear whatever social/political/financial structure we have. Social Contract? Not so much.

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Response to Calculating (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:32 PM

10. Spot on (I'm a historian).

Iím far more concerned about the collapse of society because of the economic repercussions.
Humanity will crack on until a meteor, supervolcano, or nuke gets us.
Weíve survived countless plagues.

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Response to evertonfc (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:35 PM

11. It's hard to be optimistic when the virus is dominating the news.

And nothing about it is good. Look, we all had plans before the virus and we all lost everything. So we have to deal with it now. Yes the news is extremely bad right now, and it will get better, sure. But the thing is right now we have to take what we can get day to day. I just want things to get back to normal as fast as possible.

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Response to yaesu (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:31 PM

9. Why do we keep posting these completely false figures?

And again from finance yahoo.

Stick to the facts. The facts can easily be found at the origination of the science. Not these fake bs financial editorials. And yahoo no less.

We are such suckers we humans.

If you want to be pacified you'll find whatever you want to believe. If you want science, facts or reality just read the stats.

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Response to yaesu (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 10:41 PM

12. Well, here's the way I look at it: I am 80 years old. My mother remembered the Spanish flu which

hit her hometown, El Paso, Texas, when she was a kid and she told me about people dying all around her. My mother must have had good genes to survive that. And she was a tough, old broad who lived to be 93. In addition, she had Pancho Villa riding into El Paso and "shooting up the town," as she would put it. She and her family survived this by diving under beds.

I can assure you that El Paso of my mother's tender years was not the charming city it is today. I can only wonder about life in those days...

It occurs to me that there are people all over the world who live in worse conditions than we do on a daily basis and for longer stretches of time. These folks have little hope but we do have hope Unfortunately, we have a really terrible president. Well, we can change that next November!

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