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Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:37 PM

 

What if we can't slow it?

Will it simply pass through the population, kill alot of people and remain around until immunities make it less transmissible and fatal as in the flu? Who days we will be able to slow it?

34 replies, 2072 views

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Arrow 34 replies Author Time Post
Reply What if we can't slow it? (Original post)
evertonfc Mar 2020 OP
brooklynite Mar 2020 #1
rzemanfl Mar 2020 #2
brooklynite Mar 2020 #3
rzemanfl Mar 2020 #11
cwydro Mar 2020 #9
rzemanfl Mar 2020 #12
cwydro Mar 2020 #13
rzemanfl Mar 2020 #14
cwydro Mar 2020 #18
defacto7 Mar 2020 #5
SlogginThroughIt Mar 2020 #6
Ace Rothstein Mar 2020 #20
dewsgirl Mar 2020 #28
Igel Mar 2020 #7
albacore Mar 2020 #17
jberryhill Mar 2020 #26
XRubicon Mar 2020 #25
Aquaria Mar 2020 #29
PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #4
Lulu KC Mar 2020 #8
SCantiGOP Mar 2020 #15
Lulu KC Mar 2020 #22
SCantiGOP Mar 2020 #23
EndlessWire Mar 2020 #31
jberryhill Mar 2020 #30
EndlessWire Mar 2020 #32
Zing Zing Zingbah Mar 2020 #10
Claritie Pixie Mar 2020 #16
Lulu KC Mar 2020 #24
KY_EnviroGuy Mar 2020 #19
Celerity Mar 2020 #21
PubliusEnigma Mar 2020 #27
Demonaut Mar 2020 #33
Raine Mar 2020 #34

Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:38 PM

1. My journalist friend thinks it will decrease as we move into summer...

More U/V exposure and fresh air circulation helps.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:41 PM

2. Not if you can't leave your house. n/t

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Response to rzemanfl (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:42 PM

3. Nobody's stopping you from walking to the store...

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Response to rzemanfl (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:48 PM

9. I leave my house every day. I work outside in my garden.

I take my pooches to the park.

I seldom come into contact with anyone, since so many stay inside all the time (even before this virus).

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Response to cwydro (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:54 PM

12. In Italy you'd need a permit to walk dogs. n/t

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Response to rzemanfl (Reply #12)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:00 PM

13. I don't live in Italy.

I also own 26 acres of wild country outside my town, so I think I can take them there if need be.

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Response to cwydro (Reply #13)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:02 PM

14. Good for you and your dogs.

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Response to rzemanfl (Reply #14)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:18 PM

18. Kind of funny. My dad bought the property in the country because he thought there would be a

“cataclysm” one day. He stocked in tons of stuff and built a bunker out there. We used to tease him about his “cataclysm.” Wonder if somewhere somehow he’s watching all this.

It became a camp out spot for me and friends over the years. After he died, it came to me.

Nice to have it now. It’s a beautiful spot, with apple, peach, and pear trees. Wild turkeys roam there, as well as deer. My pooches love it. I keep chickens there, and grow lots of veggies (though the chickens are vicious at getting at my veggies!

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:43 PM

5. It's not what the studies show. WHO says don't expect it.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:45 PM

6. Take a look at Florida. It is sunny and warm there.

 

and it is all along the gulf coast.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:24 PM

20. Same with Singapore, Brazil, Malaysia, Bahrain and Qatar.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:31 PM

28. Its 77 in west palm and 76 in Miami right now.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:45 PM

7. Solar UV isn't all that dominant at the Earth's surface.

Most is absorbed in the upper atmosphere. Ozone layer and all that. https://gisgeography.com/atmospheric-window/

The jury's still out on the effect of small temperature differences on this puppy. Will the additional 20 degrees F make that big a difference? And if it's spread so easily, the flattening of the curve may not be all that great. In two months we'd expect feedback effects from the %age of the population already afflicted by COVID-19 to have a larger effect.

I like his belief. But I don't see any reason to think this one is all that good. Certainly better than "we're all doomed! AAAHHHH!" that I hear from the time to time.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:17 PM

17. It's summer in the Southern Hemisphere...

But Singapore, Australia, Brazil, and others down there are experiencing the upsurge in virus cases.

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Response to albacore (Reply #17)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:29 PM

26. International travel affects that

 


Some of those cases can be from international travelers and direct exposure to them.

Warm weather is not magic, but the jury is out on whether it will slow things down.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:22 PM

25. The 1918 spanish flu slowed in the summer then came back in september/october

Killing the most of the outbreak

I think this will be the same.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:31 PM

29. Your journalist friend

 

Then needs to explain why it’s spreading in the Southern Hemisphere, where it’s still summer.

Or why it’s gained a toehold in equatorial Africa, where the weather is close to summer year round.

This virus doesn’t give a shit about season or climate. It only cares about finding more hosts.

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Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:43 PM

4. The up side is that after everyone is exposed,

and the unfortunate unlucky ones die, everyone remaining should be immune. And then this specific virus ought to go extinct.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:47 PM

8. I hate to say this

but people who have been released from hospitals in China are recontracting it. I wish I could give you a link to this, but I didn't keep it.
We don't know this virus yet.


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Response to Lulu KC (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:13 PM

15. small but important distinction

Some people who have recovered in China are again testing positive, but I haven't seen that anyone has recovered and then gotten sick again from an active case.
But testing positive again, even if it doesn't make you sick, is still very bad because that person could spread it to others.

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #15)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:38 PM

22. Indeed

I need to research this. After I walk the dogs and try to regain my sanity.

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Response to Lulu KC (Reply #22)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:52 PM

23. You better take a long walk

I'm not sure any of us are regaining sanity anytime soon, at least not before Jan20 of next year

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #15)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 11:30 PM

31. I am not sure

but there was a patient in San Diego who was finally cleared for release, and then got readmitted to the hospital with symptoms. They reported it as being like a relapse or something. Very alarming. To me, it is looking like no immunity is conferred.

Some things stay inside you forever and hide out. This may be one of them.

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Response to Lulu KC (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:31 PM

30. Beware of statistics

 


If they had 90,000 cases and there are ten people who were re-infected, bear in mind that people’s bodies are not machines. There are always unusual outliers.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #30)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 11:40 PM

32. Well

What's in question is the immunity conferred. Is any? What is strange to me is the way they think that two weeks will do it. Then you are free to go out and get infected. The two weeks may prove you are clean, but I think each and every time you go out you earn another two weeks in quarantine.

Doctors don't seem to be testing for immunity. Are they? Now, I want to know what they are seeing. Anything? No one is telling us enough.

They also are not talking about the two different strains they have discovered. Is this responsible for the relapses? It would make sense, but damned scary if both are in the same environment at the same time. Can they both infect you at once?

We want to know, and not just be managed for our compliance.

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Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:50 PM

10. Then we sure wasted a lot of days the kids could have been going to school n/t

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Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:15 PM

16. Then our hospitals will be overrun and a lot of people will die.

I am not being extremist, but flattening the curve is to make sure everyone can get the care they need, including critically ill people who don't have COVID-19.

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Response to Claritie Pixie (Reply #16)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:17 PM

24. Exactly

I think this needs some serious messaging work for the public.

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Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:21 PM

19. Let's be honest: No one knows the answers to your questions. Period.

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Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:31 PM

27. It will remain until all who can get it do. We are the first humans to build immunity to this virus.

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Response to evertonfc (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2020, 02:59 AM

34. Apparently it has slowed down in China

we have as a model of the way it moves.

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