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Sat Mar 14, 2020, 06:26 PM

 

Death perspective for US Coronavirus

Current mortality rate over many weeks across many populations stands at 3.74%

If ONLY 15% of Americans contracted it (roughly 50 million) that would equate to 1.87 million fatalities

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Arrow 60 replies Author Time Post
Reply Death perspective for US Coronavirus (Original post)
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 OP
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #1
Chemisse Mar 2020 #2
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #4
Chemisse Mar 2020 #12
Roland99 Mar 2020 #3
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #6
uponit7771 Mar 2020 #7
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #11
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #8
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #10
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #17
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #22
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #24
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #28
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #30
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #9
Drahthaardogs Mar 2020 #36
Blue_true Mar 2020 #48
uponit7771 Mar 2020 #5
defacto7 Mar 2020 #14
uponit7771 Mar 2020 #19
Amishman Mar 2020 #16
coti Mar 2020 #18
Blue_true Mar 2020 #50
LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #55
Blue_true Mar 2020 #56
LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #57
Blue_true Mar 2020 #59
el_bryanto Mar 2020 #20
uponit7771 Mar 2020 #21
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #26
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #25
Renew Deal Mar 2020 #29
uponit7771 Mar 2020 #32
gldstwmn Mar 2020 #13
sarisataka Mar 2020 #15
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #23
sarisataka Mar 2020 #31
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #37
sarisataka Mar 2020 #39
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #41
sarisataka Mar 2020 #46
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #47
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #27
sarisataka Mar 2020 #38
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #40
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #49
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #51
davekriss Mar 2020 #33
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #34
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #42
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #44
Turbineguy Mar 2020 #35
Botany Mar 2020 #43
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #45
dewsgirl Mar 2020 #52
SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #53
John Fante Mar 2020 #54
Sapient Donkey Mar 2020 #58
SiliconValley_Dem Apr 2020 #60

Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 06:34 PM

1. Bump for truth bomb

 

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:06 PM

2. Do you have a link to support this? n/t

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Response to Chemisse (Reply #2)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:09 PM

4. Yes. Based on trackcorona.live

 

Plus conservative estimate if US infections

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #4)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:13 PM

12. Thanks! n/t

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:07 PM

3. It's down to 2.0% for the US

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:09 PM

6. So far

 

When hospitals become overwhelmed and they are triaging, it will get worse

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:10 PM

7. We're far behind any industrialized country on testing. We're at 20k in 1 month, SK does 10k a day

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #7)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:13 PM

11. Perhaps 90% of cases haven't been identified

The wave hasn't even begun to rise yet. Shit is a lot worse than it appears.

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:11 PM

8. So only a million deaths then? Goody! nt

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #8)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:12 PM

10. Exactly. And based on my lowball % infection rate

 

Many experts project 40% to 70% infections—not 15%

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:18 PM

17. Assuming a 50% infection rate and an eventual 4% mortality

That's around 6.5 million deaths.

4% mortality because 2% is the "all case" mortality. The data from the rest of the world show that once the wave washes over us and all the infections have either died or recovered, the mortality will be twice the current "all case" CFR.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #17)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:23 PM

22. Of course a 40% to 70% infection rate implies a lot of younger people being affected

And their outcomes are better, which would drive down the CFR.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #22)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:27 PM

24. The percent of CFR is same no matter infection rate

 

The main thing changing fatalities is speed of growth and flattening curve or slowing down serious cases

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #24)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:37 PM

28. Actually, no.

Here's a thought experiment:

You have 1000 cases, 20 of whom die.
CFR=2%

Now add infections to 1000 young people who all recover.
Cases go to 2000, but deaths stay at 20.
CFR=1%

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #28)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:39 PM

30. I'm talking large numbers only

 

2 million infected vs 20 million infected

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:11 PM

9. If these numbers hold true--only 1 million US deaths at 2%

 

And again—assuming only 15% of US is infected

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:49 PM

36. It will rise when hospitals get over burdened

Which is why flattening the curve is so important

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Response to Drahthaardogs (Reply #36)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:01 AM

48. Trump is doing nothing to flatten the curve.

He had to have an intervention to even admit that there was a problem.

China literally shut 50 million people off from the rest of the world. Everything but hospitals were shutdown. I just wonder what happens there when China starts "reopening" that area? It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a resurgence of the virus. Trump has done nothing to limit movement among 330 million people, who knows how many people are infected. I went to a grocery store today and it was a circus, a varitable infection soup of people all over the place, it was difficult to move around.

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:09 PM

5. Anyone got any happy numbers ? thx in advance

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:15 PM

14. You can just make some up like a lot of people do.

There really aren't any happy numbers.

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Response to defacto7 (Reply #14)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:19 PM

19. dag nabbit !!!

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:18 PM

16. There are none with this

We need to shut everything down now domestically and severe travel restrictions until it burns out globally

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:19 PM

18. Well, only comparatively.

But, a few weeks into this thing and the US has had 57 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So far, that's a lot less than a million. Maybe we'll get to a million, maybe we won't.

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Response to coti (Reply #18)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:06 AM

50. China seems to have had success, an extent, so has Italy

when one looks at actual deaths versus projections.

My uneducated guess? COVID-19 will kill more people than H1N1, but the number will vein the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #50)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:20 AM

55. China dragged people from their homes and forcibly tested them while 750 million stayed home.

 

They had fever clinics, mobile testing and drone enforced safety precautions of masks when out of doors.

Somehow, I doubt we'll do that. Im expecting our numbers to dwarf theirs.

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Response to LaurenOlimina (Reply #55)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:24 AM

56. It will be interesting to see what happens in China once the country opens

up.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #56)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:57 AM

57. yeah, holding my breath.

 

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Response to LaurenOlimina (Reply #57)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 05:19 PM

59. You and hundreds of millions of other people, literally holding their

breath. If China reverts backward once strict movement controls are lifted, that would not be good news.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:20 PM

20. the one potential for a good outcome

is that now that we are finally taking it seriously, we will hopefully change our strategies for dealing with it - a lot of the projections seem to factor in our current or normal behavior - but a lot of people are changing their behavior so maybe that will be of benefit.

Bryant

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Response to el_bryanto (Reply #20)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:21 PM

21. +1, Fauci wouldn't happy path variables in his models hopefully he doesn't want to get hopes up

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #21)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:28 PM

26. Correct. Better to scare people into accepting draconian measures

 

Still not working for a lot of doofuses

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Response to el_bryanto (Reply #20)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:28 PM

25. That is my hope and the reason for posting

 

Stay home! Tell friends to stay home! Work on good health and keep pushing for more and more tests

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:39 PM

29. Stocks for toilet paper manufacturers are up 100%

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #29)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:40 PM

32. +1

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:13 PM

13. And yet I can see the main thoroughfare

from my house and it is filled with cars. Where is everyone going and why?

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:16 PM

15. What country

Has come close to having a 15% infection rate to justify that estimate?

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #15)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:25 PM

23. Most are in growth mode still--wouldn't trust China numbers

 

Her’s an article on modeling https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-forecasts-are-grim-its-going-to-get-worse/2020/03/11/2a177e0a-63b4-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

It likely won’t all happen this season. But still early enough for us to really shut this down

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #23)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:40 PM

31. While the numbers are still growing,

The growth rate is slowing in many infected countries. The most highly infected countries are Italy and Norway at .03% and .02% respectively.

I have seen many dire predictions and models but so far not any explanation why the infection rate in the U.S. will be 500 times higher than the worst real world examples.

Reading over that article, they indicate the 1.6 million deaths is a worst case scenario and spread over 2-3 years. Their best case was 327 deaths over the same time frame. It doesn't explain why they believe, or even if they believe, the infection rate is likely to approach 15%.

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #31)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:50 PM

37. I wish people could understand this has only been growing in Iran/Europe since Feb

 

Or maybe late Jan and exponential growth rate gets you to 10 or 15% pretty fast

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #37)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:00 PM

39. I wish people understood the difference

Between linear and exponential growth. Since late January the growing at a high linear rate, but not exponentially.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #39)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:07 PM

41. From your own linked site, look at US infection growth rate

 

Forget about global for a moment because I don’t trust numbers or lack thereof out of Russia and China. Look at daily US new cases, US total active cases. All exponential

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #41)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:59 PM

46. Indeed it is right now

Following a period of slow growth. That I attribute a lot of that to the goat rodeo the DC has made of the testing. It shifts our curve to the right.

It appears every country follows the same basic pattern. The infection starts with several weeks of exponential growth then tapering to nearly linear. The specific changes and rates are individual but the pattern is the same.

As I said in the other post, if the 15% is a long term projection, I can accept that. But it needs to be made clear that rate is not talking about the next few months.

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #46)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 09:01 PM

47. Experts predict longer term (1.5 to 2 years) to be 40-70%

 

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #15)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:31 PM

27. I think that possibility is derived from Spanish Flu rates.

It killed about 2.5% of the world population (50 million out of 2 billion or so) and is estimated to have infected 30% of the world's population.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #27)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:55 PM

38. I can see where

They may pull that number for modeling but my question is there any real world example to justify using it outside of long term.

If we are going to say 15% of people are going to be infected but is over several years, then the time frame should be made clear. To not do so would be like putting out a weather report that says it is going to rain tomorrow and we are expecting 41 inches of rain, when the 41 inches in the average yearly rainfall amount.

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #38)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:03 PM

40. Frankly, it's impossible to say just yet. It's still early days,

and nobody can predict how long it will last. If we follow the China curve instead of the Italy curve, things could be relatively OK. But I think Italy is a better model, and a duration of a year and a half feels likely. So anything could happen.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #40)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:03 AM

49. The China curve is because all other provinces went into forced lockdown

 

We are nowhere near that

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Reply #49)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:36 AM

51. I agree. I don't really think that outcome is possible

At least not until the Horseman has swung his scythe through the nation and the world. Frankly I think we"re fucked, but nobody can bring themselves to say it. The math is horrible, and we've probably waited too long. I'm extremely pessimistic after what I've read tonight.

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:47 PM

33. No, it'll be between 0.5 to 5 percent

Last edited Sat Mar 14, 2020, 10:49 PM - Edit history (1)

That still means 480,000 U.S. dead in a few months. See this brilliant article (nearly irrefutable logic):

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I first noticed this link in another DU thread, but forgot who posted it. Because of the “@“ in the address, you’ll have to copy and paste into your browser.

I misspoke. From the article:

“This is what you can conclude:

Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).

Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%”

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Response to davekriss (Reply #33)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:49 PM

34. Thanks for the added info. Shows we all gotta be serious about this

 

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Response to davekriss (Reply #33)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:27 PM

42. Medium links

You can remove the @ symbol after you paste it into the message and it'll work.

Like so:

https://medium.com/tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #42)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:45 PM

44. This is the best article I have read on this so far

 

And proves my contention that if we kept our lax approach, we’re facing 3-4% death rate but if we bend the curve now, we can drastically reduce it.

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:49 PM

35. Let Bucky work it out.

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:40 PM

43. Corona Math

330,000,000 (US Population) x .40 (40 to 70% infection rate) x .03 (3% lethality rate) = 3,960,000 POSSIBLE deaths

I hope i am wrong and the only fixed # is the US population in that equation.

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Response to Botany (Reply #43)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:46 PM

45. Exactly. Fortunately, we have the ability to dramatically ratchet those numbers down

 

Right now

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)


Response to dewsgirl (Reply #52)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:49 AM

53. Care to share? What was it about?

 

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:59 AM

54. Even South Korea, which has done a masterful job of testing and limiting

the spread, has a 1% coronavirus mortality rate right now. That's 10x deadlier than the flu.

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:39 AM

58. Hopefully some of those "promising" antivirals will be effective on a large scale

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Response to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Wed Apr 1, 2020, 07:11 AM

60. My post from mid-March holds up.

 

With no action, the scientists predict 1.5 to 2million deaths invUS. With heavy social distancing efforts, admin is now shooting for 100,000 to 200,000 dead Americans as their “best case” goal.

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