Recent Electoral Vote Predictions

[Honeycombe8]

Here's why I think Obama has won. These were updated a couple of days ago, before the convention results could be factored in. Convention results maybe wouldn't help Obama much, but it certainly won't hurt.





http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep05.html

Obama: 332
Romney: 206

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php?d=77

Obama: 303
Romney: 235

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Obama: 313
Romney: 225

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-electoral-college-map-9412.html

Obama: 332
Romney: 206



The only one I could find where Obama doesn't hit the magic 270 EV needed to win, still has Obama leading Romney (lots of toss-ups):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Obama: 221

Romney: 191

[Tx4obama]

1. More map links on the link below

Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/125175126

[IVoteDFL]

2. One of those also predicts four senate losses

I wasn't ever really afraid Obama wouldn't be reelected, but now I'm nervous about losing all those senate seats.


Also what the hell does a state have to do to become "strongly Democratic" Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican to the presidency since 1972!!

[Angleae]

3. You know it's pretty bad for Romney when Karl Rove has Obama ahead

http://www.rove.com/election

You know damn well he's trying to manipulate the numbers to his favor.

[Victor_c3]

4. Funny, the repubs claim Romney is ahead

On a conservative forum that I frequent from time to time, they all cite piles of polls showing Romney in the lead. Give me a little bit of time an I'll see if I can pull up their data.

I was saying years ago that Obama would win this election. During the republican primaries, I really started to get a warm and fuzzy about it when I saw the field of potential candidates. The republican party, as we know it, is dying. Assuming that they lose this election, 2016 is going to be a major formative year for them. I was reading an article recently about the changing minority demographic in the US. Minorities tend to vote more in favor of liberal policies than conservative. As the percentage of America's population becomes more "minority" dominated (I guess if they are a majority, minorities aren't a minority?) politics will have to shift more liberal. If the Republicans want any semblence of power in the future, they'll have to drop some of their conservative positions and pick up some liberal ones.

I fully believe that the radical right surge we've seen in the republican party is them aknowledging that this election might be their last chance to run and impliment a strongly conservative platform like this. Even if they win this presidential election, they are done.

[Victor_c3]

5. Data showing R-money is leading

Well, this is the best I could do.

http://forums.corvetteforum.com/politics-religion-and-controversy/3125606-romney-leads-in-ohio-and-colorado-leads-electoral-count-275-263-a.html

I go in/out of spurts of posting on this forum (I used to own and restored a 1979 Corvette and I found my way over to their politics section). I find it interesting (alarming) to see what the hard right believes.

[Honeycombe8]

8. Interesting. But looking at the Wash. Dispatch, the EV map creator, it's a right wing site.

It's not a real EV map prediction. It's a partisan feel-good map. The sites I and others use are non-partisan EV predictor sites. Partisan maps don't mean much. We really want to know the truth, not just feel good.

For one thing, notice that the map gives Romney virtually every swing state, in order to come up with that map. That is not likely to happen. It COULD happen, but EV maps are about what the current data shows is LIKELY to happen.

A quick review of the articles on the right side of the screen, when looking at the Washington Dispatch EV map quickly reveals the partisan nature of that source.
http://washington-dispatch.com/post/2012/09/06/Electoral-College-September-7-Romney-275-Obama-263.aspx

Still, it was interesting. I can look at it in the future. If it ever has a map showing Obama ahead, I'll know for sure it's all over for Romney, if the right wing sites have acknowledged the loss.

[mick063]

11. Folks...check the link out in previous post

It invests a great deal of effort in monitoring the percentage of voters with photo ID.

One of the very few maps that puts Romney ahead, also heavily weighs voter disenfranchisement.


If Romney wins, and this is the only model by which he currently can, thank the State Attorney Generals of TeaBillie states for the victory.

[november3rd]

13. Unlikely sweep

This map shows Rawmoney sweeping Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, which is extremely unlikely, since they are all Obama 2008 states and OFA is concentrating as much resources in those 4 as the GOP is.

If Obama wins only one of those four swing states he takes the election, by this Washington Dispatch scenario. Rawmoney must win all four.

Even with suppression ID laws, it's a long shot for Rawmoney to sweep all four of those states.

[Honeycombe8]

7. Well, polls and electoral vote counts are 2 different things.

The national "registered voter" or "likely voter" polls have Obama slightly ahead one day, and Romney slightly ahead the next. Looks like the country is split between the two parties, with a small percentage in the middle being the swing vote.

But the EV predictions speak to wins of state that don't necessarily correlate popular vote. And of course, it's the EV that counts.

[RedSpartan]

6. Here's another.

Basically has the President at around 310 EVs right now, before factoring in the DNC.

http://election.princeton.edu/

[Victor_c3]

9. I sure hope Obama wins

I don't know if it is because I'm just finally paying attention to politics for the first time in my life or if the media is spining it hard, but I feel that a lot more is at stake in recent elections than in previous elections.

Maybe it's my conservative roots altering my perception, but at least previous republicans like Regean could be compromised with. The modern brand of uncompromising conservatives is extra dangerous. Ronald Regean, the republican icon, would be way too moderate for the republicans of today - which is kind of funny to me.

[Honeycombe8]

10. So true. Reagan was a "get 'er done" kinda guy. He wanted his way,

but realized that for a government to function, you have to bend and find common ground. We're all in this together, working toward the same thing: a healthy and happy America, with opportunity for all. Or at least we WERE like that.

I've been paying attention to politics for some years, though not actively involved. I've never seen anything like this before, the absolute obstruction by one party, knowing full well that their actions will cause millions to continue suffering. The absolute disregard for the truth. I don't see any respect or consideration for the average citizen. It's become only about taxes for the wealthy and deregulation. Seriously.

And to sign a pledge to a rich guy, Norquist, is unbelievable to me. They are supposed to pledge to honor the country, not individuals with influence.

[november3rd]

12. Don't Let Yourselves Waste Energy Thinking About It

There's only going to be one reason any candidate wins in this race:

They have the most citizens who ACTUALLY GET TO THE POLLS and CAST VOTES FOR THEM.

That's all we have time to think about now.